Rapidly marching on the road of new industrialization, it is very important to have a large number of outstanding engineers, which is an inevitable requirement for China's economic development and continuous upgrading. China has built the world's largest engineering education system, with the total number of engineers up from 521 in 200000,000 increased to 1,765 in 202030,000 people, with an average annual growth rate of 63%, and the proportion of engineers in the overall workforce also increased from 071% rose to 223%, but there is still a gap of more than 20 million engineers at the minimum, especially the lack of world-class academic masters and engineering and technology leaders.
The 2021 consulting research project of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, "Strategic Research on the Construction of the World's Top Engineering Colleges", also disclosed that the total number of engineering graduates in China each year exceeds 1 3 of the total number of engineering graduates in the world, but the talent pool to support industrial upgrading, especially high-level and innovative engineering and technical talents, is obviously insufficient. The engineering practice and technological innovation ability of engineering graduates in China is weak, and it is difficult to meet the needs of enterprises for high-level innovative applied engineering talents. This leads to the workplaceOn the one hand, many engineering graduates find it difficult to find their dream jobs, and on the other hand, a large number of enterprises are worried about not finding qualified engineering and technical talents.
The scale of engineers in China and the status of the manufacturing industry are also extremely incompatible. China's manufacturing industry ranks first in the world, with a high proportion of added value in GDP, but a low proportion of manufacturing engineers in employment. In 2020, the proportion of scientists and engineers in China's manufacturing industry was only 355%, much lower than Germany 232%, EU 142% level.
The Chinese population dividend has undergone tremendous new changes. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics in 2023, China's population has entered a negative growth track in 2022, showing the first decline in the total population under normal development since 1962 (61 years). The impact of this reversal of the demographic situation is comprehensive, and it is a reality that must be faced squarely as a result of changes in the demographic structure and industrial structure, such as labor shortages and slowing economic growth. Since the 90s of the 20th century, the theory of demographic dividend has gradually become a hot topic in many countries and think tanks. However, our previous understanding of the demographic dividend is mostly based on the consideration of the number of population, with the change of China's total population trend, China's demographic dividend will change dramatically, this change is not the disappearance of the demographic dividend in the future for a period of time, but the demographic dividend from the number of population growth to the improvement of population quality, which is also the key to the formation of new growth momentum in China.
In response to the problem that China's engineer team is large but not strong,We need to realize the transformation of the demographic dividend to the "engineer dividend", which is the top priority of our country to accelerate scientific and technological innovation, promote industrial upgrading, and achieve high-quality development. Although the overall number of engineers in China ranks first in the world, compared with developed countries in Europe and the United States, the proportion of engineers in the labor force is still low. The data shows that the proportion of scientists and engineers in the total labor force in China is 24%, which is 2 lower than the United States and the European Union04% and 503%。In addition, China's engineer group as a whole is younger, with low academic qualifications and professional titles, and a relatively high proportion of middle and low income levels, which also has an obvious gap compared with other countries, and it is difficult to meet the urgent requirements of China's high-quality economic development. However, this also shows that there is still a lot of room for improvement in the scale and quality of engineers in China, and it has the potential advantage of "engineer dividend", which can provide an effective guarantee for improving labor productivity and accelerating industrial upgrading and transformation in the future.
The gap between supply and demand for Chinese engineers will further widen in the future. According to the China Household Finance Survey and Research Center of Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, according to the goal of maintaining a stable proportion of China's manufacturing added value in GDP, the gap between the supply and demand of engineers in China will expand from less than 1% to 32% in the next 15 years. If the proportion of engineers in China's labor force reaches the current average level of developed countries in 2035, the demand for engineers will be about 45 million. Data analysis shows that from 2023 to 2035, the supply scale of engineers in China will increase from 2059 in 202320,000 to 3,191 in 203510,000 people, the gap between the total demand and the total supply is widening, and this gap is the "engineer dividend".
We need to attach great importance to the "engineer dividend" that is coming to us, fully mobilize the multi-subject forces of leading departments, universities, enterprises, industry associations, etc., and adhere to systematic thinking and overall planningForm a standardized and efficient management system and operation mechanism with first-class quality standards as the core, continuously improve the engineer training mechanism, and increase efforts to cultivate outstanding engineers and engineer teamsLet the "engineer dividend" continue to release huge energy on the road of China's modernization and new industrialization.