After entering the second half of the year, the urban investment bond market is unprecedentedly hot. Since October of this year, with the growth of 1The successive landing of 5 trillion special refinancing bonds, coupled with the adverse impact of economic uncertainties, all kinds of capital are trying to seek safe investment channels, and frequent policy support has made urban investment bonds the best haven for many institutional funds again, and a large number of institutional funds have poured into the urban investment bond market. With such a hot urban investment bond market, why are practitioners shouting that this year is too difficult?
The city's bidding bonds staged a realistic version of "hurricane".
Interest rates continue to fall, and debt is still hard to find.
Since the Politburo meeting in July this year put forward the "package of bonds", various localities have successively launched special refinancing bonds, which has also made the "faith" of urban investment still strong, and urban investment bonds have once again won the favor of investment institutions with their credit advantages and high yields.
In August this year, Jincheng Construction became the most dazzling "star" in the urban investment market with a number of urban investment bond subscription multiples of more than 70 times, which once again ignited the market's enthusiasm for urban investment bonds. The "23 Tianjin Urban Construction SCP051", "23 Tianjin Urban Construction SCP052" and "23 Tianjin Urban Construction SCP053" issued by it have successively obtained high subscription multiples of 70 times, 74 times and 79 times in the primary market, while in the secondary market, the credit spread of Tianjin Urban Construction has narrowed significantly by 36944bp, the enthusiasm of institutions to grab the allocation is high, with the popularity of Tianjin urban investment subscription, the issuance progress of the urban investment bond market has gradually accelerated.
Even though the interest rate on urban investment bond issuance has been repeatedly lowered, the market's subscription enthusiasm continues to rise. On the one hand, as a kind of local debt, urban investment bonds are usually guaranteed by the credit of local governments, so they are regarded as a relatively safe investment option
On the other hand, there are differences in the interest rates of different types of bonds in the current market, and the interest rates of urban investment bonds are relatively high, which has also become one of the reasons for investors to rush to buy. Especially in the low interest rate environment, the high interest rate of urban investment bonds is particularly attractive.
In addition, under the current economic situation, the management of local debts has become stricter, and the supervision of urban investment bonds has been strengthened. With the support of trillions of special refinancing bonds and trillions of national bonds, the risk of local bonds has been alleviated, and the early redemption and replacement of urban investment bonds have been rapidly promoted.
Institutions can't grab debts, and for ordinary investors, the urban investment bond products that can be invested have naturally become more scarceWhat's worse is that the previous standard products from time to time came to the news of early end, a large number of customer funds that were liquidated and withdrawn in advance could not find new products to undertake for the time being, wealth companies were anxious, money was put on the books and investors were also anxious, and urban investment bonds completely became a situation that various wealth institutions and ordinary investors could not climb.
[The asset shortage is coming again?]Urban investment bonds have started a wave of early redemption].
The dilemma of non-standard urban investment
Since the non-standard extension of Shandong, it has been a year and a half, although Shandong has introduced a lot of debt-related policies this year, but the implementation situation is still confusing. According to market news, special refinancing bonds cannot be directly used for non-standard payment, and special funds need to be used for special purposes, and a series of operations are required in various places before it is the turn of non-standard. The performance of Shandong non-standard after the postponement can be described as a heavy blow to the non-standard market of urban investment, which has caused many investors with heavy positions in Shandong non-standard to fall into the quagmire.
According to the Internet, on December 14, Weifang Binhai New Area held a communication meeting on chemical bonds, clarifying the redemption plan: 1. Interest: It is expected that next week, no later than the end of December, the current interest and deferred interest of the due customer will be paid in full at one time 2. Principal: The principal of the mature customer is expected to be paid in batches in the second quarter of next year, and the principal due will be fully settled before the end of September. 
True or false, at least it makes investors and peers look forward to it a little more in waiting!First, the investor levelThe current situation of non-standard payment of Shandong Chengtou has a self-evident impact on the market, and many investors are worried that the faith of Chengtou will be broken. Coupled with the poor overall economic performance this year, the market's investment confidence is seriously insufficient, and investors who are not enough to subscribe to the underlying assets believe that staying on the sidelines may be the best choice, after all, it is far more important to keep the principal than to earn that interest. Second, the policy levelAt the policy level, it is required to adhere to the bottom line of "no systemic financial risks", strictly prohibit the addition of various types of non-standard debt financing, and continue to reduce the stock business, which also makes the non-standard asset side roll up to a new height. [Another region issued a document: local trading venues shall not carry out non-standard debt financing business!]】
[New hidden debts are strictly prohibited in many places, what is the status quo of non-standard transfer?]】
[Both urban bidding bonds and non-standard bonds are included in the conversion and replacement targets].
The industry is at an inflection point, and life is a bit difficult
Whether it is standard or non-standard, peers and friends are pouring bitter water on each other, and the urban investment business in the second half of the year is too difficult for the wife to do. On the one hand, it is difficult to change the situation of a debt in the urban tender bond market in a short period of timeWith the successive landing of special refinancing bonds in various places, the yield continues to fall, and there is a wave of early redemption of urban investment bonds in many places. Financial institutions can't grab debts, naturally there is no opportunity for ordinary investors, focusing on the entire market, whether it is trust, or **, asset management, the market is also difficult to pick out a few standard products!Driven by trillions of special refinancing bonds, standard bonds have become an investment that we can't afford to climb. Recently, it was quietly discovered that most of the peers in the same industry who transferred the iron core to the standard last year and the first half of the year could not survive, and the assets were short, so everyone still had to live, so they could only switch to non-standard again. On the other hand, under the policy and regulatory requirements, non-standard in various places is also shrinkingCoupled with the impact of Shandong's non-standard default, the recovery of market confidence is a long-term process, and substantial progress must be made in order to make a breakthroughAt the same time, the economic downturn and the sharp decline in land finance in various places have made many people worry about the debt pressure of the local government. From the policy level, after the first financial work conference, the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the central bank have intensively voiced that they should optimize the local debt structure and establish a prevention and resolution of local debt risksThe "explosion prevention" of open market bonds and non-standard debts is the top priority. This can be regarded as a reassuring pill for urban investment bonds, and the wind direction is good!Previously, Shandong's non-standard default has a large conduction, affecting the trend of the standard debt, the consequence of the credit collapse is that the refinancing of various places will be seriously affected, and then do not give some guiding principles and policies, let individual places come to Hu, I am afraid that it will really trigger systemic financial risks, which is absolutely not allowed to happen!A series of debt policies must first solve the short-term debt problem, stabilize the financial market, strengthen investment confidence, and guide the investment market to return to normal. Not long ago,The central bank spoke,Liquidity support for areas with high debt repayment pressure!This is undoubtedly a strong backing for all localities to resolve the debt problem!
Is the Chengtou feast coming to an end?
At this stage, the urban bidding and non-standard markets are facing many challenges, and compared with previous years, the difficulty coefficient of urban investment business in the second half of this year has risen sharply. However, no matter how the policy is adjusted, the local financing demand is persistent, and the local investment and financing functions always need a carrier to complete. However, there is one point, strictly controlling the increase of debt and financing costs is an inevitable trend, and how will the stock of local debts end in a while and a half!
The wealth market in 2023 is full of tragic colors, with the ZZ system in front of it, and the existing Haiyin Wealth, which is behind the blood and tears of countless families, compared with the self-financing gold pool of the above-mentioned private wealth companies, and the bottom investment in real estate-related financial products, urban investment products are completely successful, which is based on the special shareholder background of urban investment (local state-owned assets or relevant ** functional departments) to decide, simply put, it is impossible to run away, there is a risk of delay, but it will not be lost. [Understand the types of urban investment bonds and the advantages of urban investment bonds in one article].
It's difficult, yes, every industry has a cyclical nature, there is an adjustment period, usually face it, not anxious, winter is coming, is spring still far away?Don't panic, believe that the next cycle is not far away!