According to miningcom、miningnews.The impact of the reduction in copper production on the market has not yet been felt, but if copper demand continues to grow, the subsequent impact will eventually be there.
On suspicion of unconstitutionality, Panama** ordered First Quantum to shut down its copper mine in the country, which produced 350,000 tonnes in 2022 and 26 in the first three quarters of this year80,000 tons.
In addition, Anglo American Group announced on the 8th that it will significantly reduce its copper production forecast, and it is expected that the output in 2024 will be 73-790,000 tons, a 20% reductionProduction in 2025 will be 69-750,000 tons, down 18%.
Anglo American's Los Bronces copper mine in Chile will be maintained, and the company's Quell**eco copper mine in Peru will also be adjusted due to geological and engineering concerns.
In addition, Vale announced a copper production target of 32-35 for 202450,000 tons, lower than market expectations.
Now we have a global copper volume growth of 3% in 2024, compared to the previous forecast of a 5% increase", said Goldman Sachs, which has always been bullish on the copper market.
Importantly, its serious impact on the global balance of supply and demand. Now, we expect a shortage of 53 percent in the copper market next year40,000 tons, while the previous ** was a shortage of 1550,000 tonnes means that the copper market has gone from close to equilibrium to a significant shortage."
*The cuts reinforce our belief that the copper market has entered a clear tight state, and another factor in this view is that China is now fully destocking and will increase imports in the future."
The upcoming Chinese New Year could lead to a seasonal surplus in China, which will replenish stocks, but there will be a significant gap in the market soon after that."
While we maintain a 12-month** forecast of $10,000 tonnes, we need to point out that there may be a tail-lifting."
In addition, given the production cuts, we are even more convinced that the copper price will be significantly higher – previously Goldman Sachs had raised the copper price to $15,000 per tonne".
Macquarie Bank expects a surplus of 100,000 tonnes in 2024 and 28.28 in 202570,000 tons, compared to a previous estimate of a surplus of 2030,000 tons and 3690,000 tons.
Previously, Bank of America analyst Michael Widmer had removed First Quantum's copper mine in Panama from its 2024 producer directory and turned a small surplus into a shortage next year.
In early October, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) also said that the global copper market will have a surplus of 46 percent next year70,000 tons, the largest surplus since 2014.
**In: Global Geological and Mineral Information System