After Marcos Marcos came to power, relations between China and the Philippines have deteriorated, and friction over the South China Sea issue has increased. On December 4, the Philippine House of Representatives passed a resolution condemning China's activities in the South China Sea. During Duterte's reign, Sino-Philippine relations developed steadily for six years, and now they seem to be back to the Aquino III era.
The Philippines' confrontation with China over the South China Sea issue is nothing more than those few tricks.
First of all, China is strong and the Philippines is weak, but the Philippines likes to carry out all kinds of provocations first, and if China retaliates, the Philippines will immediately put on a victim face and create the illusion that China is "bullying" the Philippines
Second, mobilize the Legislature, release some sensational remarks, incite national sentiment in the Philippines, and put pressure on China;
Third, they have formed factions and colluded with the United States, Japan and other countries outside the region to exaggerate the South China Sea issue as an international incident and muddy the waters of the South China Sea, hoping to increase their own voice with the help of the power of major countries.
This was what the Philippines did during the reign of Aquino III;Marcos was the first foreign leader to visit China in 2023, but now he has picked up the anti-China tactics of the Aquino III era.
These various anti-China methods are actually incompetent and furious. The reason is simple, the gap between the Philippines and China in the South China Sea is too great. To give the simplest example, the 022 missile boat recently practiced exploding fish in the South China Sea, this ** is the Chinese Navy between 2004 and 2009, the production of light missile boats, full load displacement is only 220 tons, but the speed reaches an astonishing 50 knots;
Each missile boat is equipped with 8 YJ-83 anti-ship missiles with strong combat performance and stealth capabilities, and 82 were built in one go. These ships were originally designed to carry out wolf pack tactics in China's coastal waters, but in the following decade, China's naval strength expanded rapidly, and the 022 missile boats gradually lost their usefulness.
However, recently, the Chinese side publicly released information that the 022 Missile Speedboat Brigade is carrying out multi-subject combat exercises in the South China Sea. It should be noted that this news was released by the South China Sea Fleet, which indirectly confirmed the previous Chinese civilian speculation about the 022 missile boat on duty in the Spratly Islands.
The hostile target set in this exercise is the enemy's "armed fishing boat", but in actual combat, those official ships or other ** in the Philippines that come to harass will also become the target of the 022 missile boat.
According to the speculation of many experts, in addition to its own powerful firepower, the 022 missile boat may also be converted into an unmanned speedboat and become a "loyal wingman" of the South China Sea Fleet, which is enough to deal with the maritime power of the Philippines.
Even if it is this kind of light equipment that the Chinese Navy once looked down on, and which was discontinued 10 years ago, the Philippines is unlikely to find a way to deal with it. The 022 missile boats have high speed, firepower, maneuverability and low cost, and even American destroyers and frigates will shy away when they see such a maritime cluster. On the South China Sea issue, verbal artillery is useless.
Marcos's strategy in the South China Sea is the same as it was under Aquino III, but he should not forget the consequences of Aquino III's actions. Before Aquino III provoked the dispute between China and the Philippines over Scarborough Shoal, China had no actual control over Scarborough Shoal, and its control over the Spratly Islands was relatively weak.
However, after some tossing and turning by the Philippines at that time, China took de facto control of Scarborough Shoal through coast guard ships, and at the same time exerted its strong infrastructure capabilities to build a large number of construction projects on the three major islands of Subi, Mischief, Fiery Cross and other islands and reefs in the Spratlys, and all three islands have built runways that can take off and land fighter jets and transport planes.
In the years that followed, radar and other air defense facilities were moved to the three islands, and China's ability to control the core of the South China Sea was greatly enhanced. In such a situation, the Philippines is entirely to blame.
The Philippines should recognize that if China does use force to reclaim islands and reefs in the South China Sea controlled by other countries, neighboring countries will have little resistance. China's refusal to fight, and its pursuit of cooperation, is an opportunity for the Philippines.
During the Duterte era, Filipino fishermen were able to fish normally in parts of the South China Sea, and they were also able to jointly develop oil and gas resources in the South China Sea with China. Nansha islands and reefs are all Chinese territory, and sooner or later they will have to be recovered, and if they continue to provoke China, there will be no chance of cooperation in the future.
The Philippines can't even think about this, so it rashly confronts China, which is a typical arrogance and does not have a clear understanding of its own strength. Think about it, with the strength of the South China Sea Fleet and the Chinese Coast Guard, even if the Philippines does forcibly occupy a certain island, will it really have the ability to protect the relevant resources?
In fact, the Philippines' thinking is very simple, that is, to constantly provoke and provoke the United States to interfere. But the United States is not sand, he just sees the Philippines as a pawn, his role is to create trouble in the South China Sea, to smear China internationally, he does not want to go to war with China for the Philippines. The Philippines and the United States both have their own agendas.
The Philippines misjudging China's determination to defend its territory and its position in the US global strategy will only make itself suffer more. At present, China has not initiated sanctions against the Philippines, and on the whole it still values peace, and hopes that the Philippines will realize that "the South China Sea issue is not the whole of China-Philippines relations".