Iron ore this week**slightly**. MySteel 62% Australian Powder Forward ** Index 133$35 dry tons, week-on-week**1$5 dry tons, down 111%；Qingdao Port PB powder **988 yuan ton, week-on-week **10 yuan ton, down 1%.
From a fundamental point of view this week, iron ore fundamentals are strong in supply and weak in demand. In terms of end, the distal and proximal ends of iron ore in this period increased week-on-week. On the demand side, the output of hot metal continued to decline, and steel mills maintained a cautious attitude towards procurement. On the inventory side, China's 45 port iron ore inventories continued the trend of accumulation in the previous period, and the accumulation range was greater than that of the previous period, and the absolute value of the inventory was still at a low level.
* In terms of trend, iron ore** fell slightly this week, and the forward spot** fell more than the port spot. This week, due to the second round of coke increase in coal mine accidents, the profits of steel mills fell under the high level of iron ore and the increase of coke. Iron ore, as the variety with the greatest regulatory pressure in the recent black, has avoided buying at a high level after the decline has expanded. At present, the average daily output of hot metal is higher than that of the same period in previous years and the inventory is low, steel mills basically maintain the rhythm of replenishing the warehouse on dips.
1.Iron ore this week**slightly**.
This week's iron ore **slightly**, as of now, iron ore 62% Australian powder index 133$35 dry tons, down 1. week-on-week11%；Shanghai rebar ** was 4040 yuan tons, down 049%。In terms of iron ore**, the main decline of SGX swaps is greater than that of iron ore**, and the main force is greater than 62%, and the Australian flour index is greater than that of PB powder in Qingdao Port. The high level of iron ore and the rise of coke have led to a significant decline in the profits of steel mills, resulting in the failure of iron ore replenishment expectations, and a significant decline in iron ore.
In terms of import profits, the decline in forward spot ** was greater than that of port spot, and import profits expanded slightly. Taking PB powder as an example, the import profit of PB powder was -10 yuan ton, and the week-on-week increase was 7 yuan ton. In terms of basis, based on the spot price difference of 01 contract PB powder futures of 13, the week-on-week increase of 1. In terms of steel mill profits, the coke rose stage, the loss of steel mills expanded, and up to now, the spot gross profit of Hebei rebar was -276 yuan tons.
2.Fundamentals: Iron ore fundamentals are strong in supply and weak in demand, and port inventories are expanding
Iron ore fundamentals this week: China's iron ore supply and demand fundamentals continued this week. From the perspective of the first end, the shipment and iron ore arrivals continued to grow, and the shipment volume remained high in the past two weeks, mainly due to the contribution of non-mainstream minesOn the demand side, although the number of blast furnaces resuming production this week is more than the number of maintenance, most of the resumption of production is dominated by small blast furnaces, and most of the overhauls are large blast furnaces, so the overall performance of hot metal production has maintained a downward trend. From the perspective of market behavior, this week's port evacuation volume showed the best signs mainly due to the increase in the amount of water transferred in some regions, and the steel mills maintained the mentality of buying down and not buying up during the week, so when the market fell at the beginning of the week, it was obvious that the market volume rebounded sharply.
In terms of port inventory, due to the continuous increase in iron ore arrivals in the cycle, the port unloading efficiency has been improved accordingly, and the unloading volume this week is much higher than the level of the previous two weeks. In the short term, due to the current large number of ships in the port, the port unloading volume may remain at a high level, and the steel mills will be affected by the downward demand, and the volume of cargo pulling may be further reduced, so the port inventory is expected to continue the trend of accumulation.
2.1 Iron ore**: The distal and proximal ends of iron ore in this period increased week-on-week
Recently, the proximal end of iron ore in China's 45 ports has continued to rise. According to mysteel45 port iron ore arrival data, the current value was 25.16 million tons, an increase of 1.26 million tons week-on-week, an increase of 52%, 870,000 tons higher than the weekly average of last month, at a high level in the same period in the past three years. In this period, the arrivals of Australia and non-mainstream have declined, while the arrivals of Brazil have increased to 8.71 million tons, which is at a high level in the past three years, and it is expected that there will be a significant decline in the next period. According to the model, the next arrival may be in the range of 2200-2300.
According to Mysteel's global iron ore shipment data, the current value was 32.73 million tons, an increase of 490,000 tons week-on-week, 2.25 million tons higher than the weekly average of the previous month, and a high level in the same period in the past three years. Recently, the global iron ore shipment volume has continued to grow, with the non-mainstream shipment volume reaching a new high of 6.2 million tons, driving the cumulative global shipment to exceed 40 million tons year-on-year. Overall, the current daily average for the month is 43470,000 tons, slightly weaker than last month's 44640,000 tons, stronger than 419 in the same period last year40,000 tons. Overseas port berth maintenance data suggests that there is a new Australian berth maintenance this week, and the next Australian shipment volume may decline, combined with ship monitoring, it is expected that the next global iron ore shipment will decline slightly.
2.2. Iron ore demand: hot metal production continues to decline, and steel mills remain cautious in procurement
This week, the output of hot metal continued to decline, and the average daily output of molten iron in 247 steel mills was 234450,000 tons per day, down 0880,000 tons per day, 13 higher than the beginning of the year730,000 tons per day, an increase of 11640,000 tons a day, although the number of blast furnace resumption of production this week is more than the number of maintenance, but the resumption of production is mainly small blast furnace, and the maintenance object is mainly large blast furnace, so on the whole, the molten iron continues to decline, at present, most steel mills take maintenance before the end of the year for blast furnaces, and in the short term, steel mills have not carried out practical action for the replenishment of winter storage, it is expected that the planned maintenance of blast furnaces before the end of the year will still increase, and the molten iron will maintain a downward rhythm.
This week's port end is more than last week, mainly due to the increase in the amount of water transferred in some areas, and the steel mills in the market mentality is tending to buy down not buy up, so at the beginning of the week when the market is down, the port volume shows a significant increase.
2.3. Iron ore inventory: The iron ore inventory of 45 ports in this period continued to accumulate inventory
China's 45 port iron ore inventories continued the trend of accumulation in the previous period, and the accumulation range was greater than that of the previous period, and the absolute value of the inventory was still at a low level. As of December 1, the total iron ore inventory of 45 ports was 11,49770,000 tons, 188 compared with the previous month560,000 tons, 1,632 lower than the inventory at the beginning of this year90,000 tons, 1,780 lower than the inventory in the same period last year150,000 tons. The current port inventory performance is accumulated, the reason comes from two aspects, this week 45 port iron ore arrivals continued to increase, unloading and warehousing increased compared with last week;On the other hand, the amount of iron ore in the current period has increased, but the increase is stronger than the demand, and the 45 ports continue to accumulate the trend.
Considering from the unloading side next week, the current port unloading volume is higher than the total amount of weekly port dredging, and the number of ships pressing the port this week has increased month-on-month, so even if the arrival declines, the port inventory may still rise further, and the increase is expected to be narrowedFrom the demand side, the increase in the current period is mainly concentrated in the transfer of water, and it is expected that it will be difficult to continue to rise in the next period. It is generally expected that the iron ore inventory of China's 45 ports will continue to accumulate in the next period.
Monthly Balance Sheet: Mysteel's iron ore analysis team predicted on November 30 that China's iron ore supply and demand side may have a strong supply and weak demand situation in December, and port inventories will continue to accumulate inventory.
3.Next week's outlook
Looking forward to next week, the global iron ore shipment volume is expected to decline slightly in the next period. On the demand side, at present, most steel mills take maintenance before the end of the year for blast furnaces, and in the short term, steel mills have not carried out practical actions for the replenishment of winter storage, and it is expected that the planned maintenance of blast furnaces will still increase before the end of the year, and the molten iron will maintain a downward rhythm. On the inventory side, the current port unloading volume is higher than the total amount of weekly port clearance, and the port inventory is still likely to rise further, and it is expected that the iron ore inventory of China's 45 ports will continue to accumulate in the next period. In summary,Iron ore may remain operational