In November, the coke market showed a strong trend, because the coking coal market was too fast, and the profit loss of coke enterprises increasedThe downstream start of construction remains high, the rigid demand is good, the coke enterprises are shipping well, and there is a demand for profits. On the 9th, coke enterprises began to raise the first round, which was implemented on the 18thOn the 22nd, the second round of coke enterprises was raised, and it landed on the 28th;In November, coke enterprises raised two rounds in total, with a cumulative range of 200 yuan for wet quenching and 220 yuan for dry quenching.
Looking forward to the coke market in December, due to the contraction of coking coal, the resumption of coal mine production is slow, and the short-term coke is still supported by a certain amountIn the later period, with the recovery of coal mines and the increase in the shipping pressure of downstream steel mills, the obstacles of coke increased significantly. It is expected that the coke market will be cautiously optimistic in December, and the first half of the month will continue to be strong, and in the second half of the month, there will be a risk gathering in the finished product market and the improvement of upstream coking coal, and there is an expectation of pressure.
**Situation
After entering November, some coke enterprises tried the first round of increases on November 9, requiring an increase of 100 yuan for wet quenching coke and 110 yuan for dry quenching cokeOn November 13, the mainstream coke enterprises started to rise, but the first increase did not land in time, and it was not until the 18th that the steel mill accepted this round of increase, and the first round of increase lasted 10 daysOn the 22nd, coke enterprises generally opened the second round of 100 110 yuan tons, some steel mills have less inventory, and they are active in taking goods, and this round of increases is faster, and the steel mills fully accept and implement them on the 28th. On the 30th, the mycpic metallurgical coke domestic spot ** index was reported at 23976 yuan ton, the average price in November was 22485 yuan ton;Origin: Shanxi Changzhi CDQ quasi-coke 2540 yuan ton, CDQ first-class coke 2740 yuan ton, cash ex-factory tax price;The port quasi-first-class outbound **2430 yuan ton, first-class outbound **2530 yuan ton;The port wet extinguishing quasi-first-level liquidation is 2440 yuan ton, and the first-level liquidation is 2540 yuan ton.
Since November, coal mine accidents have been more frequent, coal mine safety inspections have been tightened, and the coking coal market has been in Shanxi Province in November 8 coal mine safety incidents, involving 7 coking coal mines and 1 injection coal mine, and the 7 coking coal mines involved have all been suspended, with a total production capacity of 24 million tons;Coking coal ** narrowed, driven by the downstream replenishment sentiment, and the main coking coal and fertile coal ** in November were about 300 yuan tons. The profits of coking coal downstream coke enterprises have gradually narrowed, and coke enterprises have sought profits from the downstreamUnder the condition of good shipments, coke enterprises started two rounds of price increases.
Aspects
October by Shanxi 43 meters of coke oven to the impact of production capacity, coke ** has declined significantly;Although a new coke oven was put into operation in November, it took a certain period of time for the new coke oven to be put into operation, and it took a certain amount of time for the new and old production capacity to be replaced, and the output did not come upMoreover, the coking coal market in November was faster than coke, resulting in the profits of coke enterprises not expanding, and most coke companies were always in a state of loss, and the production reduction further increased.
In November, Mysteel surveyed 247 independent coking enterprises in a full sample, with an average daily coking output of 11390,000 tons per day,Month-on-month, it decreased by 160,000 tons per day, an increase of 7 year-on-year40,000 tons per day。On November 30, Mysteel counted the full sample of independent coke enterprises: the capacity utilization rate was 7502% plus 041%；The average daily output of coke is 66660,000 tons per day minus 0110,000 tons per day.
With the end of Shanxi's production capacity, the production capacity will be mainly added in December, so the impact of production capacity changes on the first will turn positive, and the impact of external interference on the production of enterprises will also be reduced, and the company's own profits will become the main driving force for production changes. According to Mysteel's research, the coking capacity in production in China is about 56.8 billion tons, with a net increase of 4.7 million tons of coke production capacity in NovemberIt is estimated that the net increase in coke production capacity in December will be 3 million tons.
On November 30, MySteel Coal & Coke Division investigated the profitability of 30 independent coking plants across the countryThe national average profit per ton of coke is -18 yuan tons；The average profit of Shanxi quasi-first-class coke is -52 yuan ton, the average profit of Shandong quasi-first-class coke is 33 yuan ton, the average profit of Inner Mongolia second-class coke is -84 yuan ton, and the average profit of Hebei quasi-first-class coke is 22 yuan ton.
On the demand side
In November, affected by profits, the output of molten iron gradually declined, and on the 30th, Mysteel surveyed 247 steel mills with an average daily molten iron output of 237070,000 tons per day, a decrease of 6830,000 tons per day, an increase of 11 year-on-year10,000 tons per day ;Mysteel expects the total hot metal output of 247 steel mills to decrease by 4.7 million tons month-on-month to 70.85 million tons in November, and the average daily hot metal output will decrease by 750,000 tons a day to 23620,000 tons a day, a decrease of 31%。The decline in coke demand is greater than the first decline, and coke has accumulated storage.
For the maintenance of steel mills in December, the planned steel mills that have been announced, according to incomplete statistics from Mysteel, there are 6 blast furnaces planned to resume production in December, involving a production capacity of about 20,000 tons per day;There are 6 blast furnaces planned to be overhauled or eliminated, involving a production capacity of about 30,000 tons per day. If the production is calculated according to the current statistics of the shutdown and resumption of production, it is expected that the average daily output of hot metal in December will be 23350,000 tons per day. However, considering that the current steel mill in the coke after two rounds of 100 yuan tons, the profit performance is poor, so it can not be ruled out that the steel mill will add a blast furnace maintenance plan, but it should be noted that the active production reduction of the steel mill also needs to further decline in profits, and the large-scale production reduction of the steel mill may need to exceed the cash flow, as well as the increase in the pressure of finished product shipmentsIt is estimated that the average daily output of hot metal in December will be 2.33 million tons.
Inventory
As of November 30, the total coke inventory (247 steel mills + all independent coke enterprises + 4 major ports) surveyed by MySteel was 849930,000 tonsMonth-on-month, it increased by 17240,000 tons, an increase of 4 percent year-on-year60,000 tons。From the perspective of inventory structure, the coke inventory of all independent coke enterprises was 65010,000 tons, a decrease of 5 month-on-month440,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 30150,000 tons;247 steel mills have an inventory of 582470,000 tons, an increase of 10 month-on-month530,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 240,000 tons;Coke inventory in four major ports is 202450,000 tons, an increase of 12 month-on-month150,000 tons, an increase of 37150,000 tons;