Zhongtai ** shares *** He Junyi, Liu Xinchang, Mao Xuan recently conducted research on Rayhoo Mould and released a research report "Backed by Chery's Stamping Die ** Champion, Downstream Expansion of Lightweight Parts Business to Open Growth Space", this report gives an overweight rating to Rayhoo Mould, the current stock price is 32$13.
Rayhoo Mould (002997).
Company Profile: The first champion of stamping die, extending the second curve of the industrial chain layout of lightweight parts.
The company is mainly engaged in stamping dies and welding automatic production lines, is the leader in the automotive stamping die industry, and has developed stamping dies for more than 100 models around the world, with customers including luxury brands such as Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Audi, as well as leading independent and new forces such as NIO, Ideal, Xiaopeng, BYD, and Chery. In 2022, it will begin to focus on the incremental business of lightweight parts, and lay out stamping parts, aluminum die-casting body parts, aluminum die-casting powertrain shells and other products, opening up the second growth curve.
Industry analysis: under the platform-based vehicle manufacturing & electric intelligent transformation, the launch of models will accelerate the growth of the stamping die industry, and lightweight will help the growth of the aluminum die-casting industry.
Automobile stamping die: 1) Drive: Accelerate the launch of models under the platform-based vehicle manufacturing & electric intelligent transformation2) Space: In 2022, the market size of China's automotive stamping dies will be about 441900 million yuan;3) Pattern: The average business scale of enterprises is small and the industry concentration is low.
Lightweight parts: 1) Drive: Electrification drives lightweight to promote the increase of aluminum used in bicycles, and the amount of aluminum used in bicycles in China in 2020 is less than 140kg (180kg and 208kg in Europe and North America), which has room for improvement. 2) Space: It is estimated that the market space of automotive aluminum die-casting in 23-25 years will be 2086 2271 226.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of +12% +9% +7%, CAGR22-25 = 94%ï¼›3) Pattern: differentiated competition, domestic CR10=15%.
Core advantages: strong mold capacity & backed by Chery to provide certainty for the incremental business of lightweight parts.
Technical advantages: master the core technology of stamping dies, and cut into the lightweight track.
Supporting relationship: The company was formerly known as Chery Automobile's subordinate mold factory, Chery Automobile is the company's core customer, 2017-2020 is the company's largest customer, Chery Technology is the company's second largest shareholder, shareholding ratio of 1314%。At present, the company's lightweight parts and components have entered the Chery chain, which is expected to follow the growth of Chery's production and sales scale in the short term and increase the proportion of supporting products in the Chery system, and develop other new customers in the medium and long term based on the mass production experience and process accumulation of Chery projects.
Growth logic: The basic disk business still maintains rapid growth, and lightweight parts contribute to the deterministic elasticity from 0 to 1.
1) Stamping die - volume dimension: industry expansion (platform car manufacturing & accelerated drive of model launch under electric intelligent transformation) + localization trend strengthened.
2) Lightweight parts - volume dimension: follow Chery and other large customers from 0 to 1 in the short term, and develop other new customers in the medium and long term based on the mass production experience and process accumulation of Chery projects.
Price dimension: The product matrix covers stamping parts, aluminum die-casting powertrain shells, aluminum die-casting body (including integrated die-casting), and is expected to be extended to aluminum die-casting chassis parts in the future to further enhance the value of single vehicles.
Profit**: The company's 23-25 revenue is expected to be 183/28.7/37.900 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of +56% +57% +32%;Net profit attributable to the parent company was 21/2.9/4.0 billion yuan, the year-on-year growth rate was +53% +37% +38%, corresponding to 23-25 years of PE were 30X, 22X, 16X, optimistic about the company's second curve lightweight parts business to follow large customers to meet the certainty of high growth, the first coverage, given an "overweight" rating.
Risk warning: core customer demand is less than expected, new product development is less than expected, new production capacity release and profit ramp-up are less than expected, industry scale measurement deviation risk, public information used in the research report may have the risk of information lag or untimely update, etc.
*According to the calculation of the research report data released in the past three years, the research team of Minsheng ** Zhang Yongqian has conducted in-depth research on the stock, and the average accuracy of the ** in the past three years is as high as 9996%, and its ** attributable net profit in 2023 is a profit of 21.9 billion, and the **PE converted according to the current price is 2694。
The latest profit** breakdown is as follows:
A total of 12 institutions have rated the stock in the last 90 days, with 10 ** ratings and 2 overweight ratingsThe average institutional price target over the last 90 days is 4954。
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