As 2023 draws to a close, China's major brokerage research teams have conducted an in-depth analysis of the investment timing and asset allocation of A** in 2024. The general view is that 2024 will be a year of regaining market confidence, the A** field will show an upward pattern, and the overall market opportunities will outweigh the risks.
The investment strategy keywords of the major leading brokerages highlight their respective characteristics, such as CICC's "Coming Days", CITIC**'s "Confidence Reunion", China Galaxy's "Gewu Dingxin", Shenwan Hongyuan's "Thick Accumulation and Thin Hair", Haitong**'s "Dawn", etc. These strategies reflect positive expectations for the market going forward.
Haitong**'s strategy team believes that the fundamental recovery of A-shares will be an effective support for the market**. The recovery in corporate earnings will rely on macro momentum and meso drivers. Qin Peijing, chief strategist at CITIC**, expects the market to be more resilient in the first half of 2024, and there may be divergence in the second half of the year.
The research team of China Galaxy pointed out that with the emergence of the effect of the stable growth policy and the continuous improvement of the economy, the performance of enterprises will usher in marginal improvement, which will provide support for the upward trend of the A** field. At present, the valuation of A-shares is at a historically low level, which means that there is more room for repair. At the same time, however, it is necessary to pay attention to uncertainties at home and abroad.
The strategy team of China Merchants also believes that in 2024, the A** market will **rise, and the main broad-based index is expected to be small**. Li Qiusuo, chief analyst of domestic strategy at CICC, pointed out that the direction and intensity of domestic policies and reforms, the process of economic recovery and the inflection point of overseas U.S. bond interest rate trends will all affect the rhythm of the A** market.
Chen Guo, chief analyst of the ** strategy of China Securities Construction Investment, holds a more positive view, and expects the A** market to enter a small bull market in 2024, mainly due to the obvious improvement of global macro liquidity and the fact that domestic stable growth may exceed expectations.
From the perspective of configuration, how to configure ** has become the focus of attention in the market. Qin Peijing**, the active public offering may increase the allocation of low-level recovery plates, and the ETF will undertake incremental funds to enter the market;At the same time, the steady entry of medium and long-term funds such as insurance will become the ballast stone of the market.
Zhang Xia's team expects that under the bottoming out of earnings and the downward trend of U.S. Treasury interest rates, A-shares will turn to a growth style to prevail, and it is recommended to pay attention to technology, pharmaceuticals and some cyclical industries.
To sum up, the outlook for the 2024 A** field is generally positive, and although there are uncertainties, the opportunities outweigh the risks. Investors should pay close attention to domestic and foreign macroeconomic trends, policy guidance, and industry development trends when making asset allocation. Especially in the context of the complex and volatile global economic environment, investors should pay more attention to research and analysis to grasp the best time to invest.
Overall, the A** market is expected to show an upward pattern in 2024, which provides investors with positive market expectations. However, uncertainties in the market cannot be ignored, including changes in the global political and economic environment, the direction and intensity of policy adjustments, and changes in corporate performance. Therefore, investors need to be flexible and prudent, while also making full use of various information resources in order to make more informed investment decisions.
In such a market environment, investors are advised to pay more attention to those industries with long-term growth potential, such as technology, medicine, new energy, etc. At the same time, it is also necessary to pay attention to risk management and adjust the portfolio in a timely manner to cope with market fluctuations. With the steady growth of China's economy and the changes in the global economic landscape, the A** market will continue to be the focus of global investors.
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