The signals sent by China and the United States to the Houthis need to be interpreted with caution b

Mondo Military Updated on 2024-01-31

Recently, the Houthi blockade of the Red Sea has attracted widespread attention from the international community. In the face of this situation, 12 countries, led by the United States, have issued a clear warning to the Houthis, demanding that they immediately stop their naval attacks, or face serious consequences. Biden described the statement as an "ultimatum" meaning no further warnings are expected. In addition, the UN Security Council convened an emergency public meeting on the situation in the Red Sea, convening 13 countries to jointly send a signal to the Houthis, highlighting the gravity of the situation.

In this process, China's position is also very clear. Geng Shuang, China's Deputy Permanent Representative to the United Nations, said at the Security Council meeting that China expressed concern over the recent attacks and seizures of merchant ships in the Red Sea waters, and called on relevant parties to stop attacks and harass civilian vessels and to guarantee freedom of navigation in the Red Sea waters. China expressed its concern about the Yemen issue at a critical time, and called on all parties to remain calm and exercise restraint, adhere to dialogue and consultation, and promote a political settlement. The Chinese side stressed the importance of the de-escalation of tensions in the Red Sea, the political settlement of the Yemen issue and the ceasefire in Gaza, which are related to the long-term peace and stability of the Middle East region and are the focus of China's efforts to resolve. Judging from China's statement, it can be seen that it is very cautious in calling on all parties to resolve the issue through dialogue and consultation, and to refrain from using excessive military means so as not to exacerbate regional tensions.

China's signal to the Houthis has two meanings, which are worth pondering. First, China did not directly condemn the Houthis' actions, but called on them to stop their attacks in a rational and peaceful manner. This shows that China does not take an excessively critical stance against the Houthis' original intentions and their support for Palestine. Second, the Chinese side emphasized that Yemen is at a critical juncture, suggesting that it would be detrimental to Yemen itself if the Houthis become too involved in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and even exacerbate the situation in the Red Sea region. Therefore, China stands on the Houthis's side, considers them, and hopes that they will not take drastic actions.

For the Houthis, it would be wise to take China's advice. The Houthis' current actions do not have much moral advantage, and if they continue to harass civilian vessels, they could face military strikes from the United States and its allies. Although the Houthis have a certain advantage in anti-ship missile and drone forces, they still lag behind the US military. If the Houthis were to be forced into the war, it could further complicate the situation and bring more disaster to the already well-off Yemeni people.

The fact that the Houthis are able to confront the American destroyer USS Carney today and attack Israeli merchant ships does not mean that they can underestimate the strength of the US military. The Houthis' ability to blockade the Red Sea relies heavily on anti-ship missile and drone forces, which have advantages in certain areas, but are not hard power. The US military is currently only on the defensive in the Red Sea, and its true strength has not yet been demonstrated. Historical examples such as the Gulf War tell us that even though Iraq claimed to have a million strong divisions, it was finally defeated by the US military in 42 days. Therefore, the most sensible option for the Houthis is to stop attacking civilian vessels and abide by the principle of freedom of navigation.

The situation facing the Houthis is quite complex, and apart from clear signals from China and the United States, Yemen itself cannot afford the cost of war as a poor country. Internationally, it will be difficult for the Houthis to get justice if they are not supported. Therefore, the Houthis should think deeply, stop their operations in a timely manner, avoid further escalation of the situation, and resort to dialogue and consultation to resolve the issue peacefully.

The Houthi blockade of the Red Sea has attracted international attention, with 12 countries, led by the United States, warning it and calling it an "ultimatum". At the same time, China called on relevant parties to stop attacks and harassment, said that the Yemen issue is related to peace and stability in the Middle East, and called on all parties to remain calm and exercise restraint and advance a political settlement. China's signal has two meanings: one is to persuade the Houthis to stop their attacks, and the other is to remind the Houthis to avoid escalating regional tensions and safeguard their own interests. The Houthis should wisely heed China's advice to stop their operations and avoid triggering a larger conflict. At the same time, the Houthis should not underestimate the strength of the US military, and should act cautiously, respect the principle of freedom of navigation, and resolve the issue peacefully.

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