It took me three days and two nights to write a long article of more than 5,000 words, reviewing the entire 2023 investment process, revising and revising in the process, and finally finalizing the draft!The following will summarize 2023 from nine aspects: review, account, lessons, operation, perception, system, shareholding, plan, and future. In this year, A-shares have been magnificent, turbulent, and up and down, but I am a little strong who can't be killed, and I fell;Got up again and jumped high;I'm also not arrogant, that's why I've been able to stand tall in the market.
Retrospective
2023 has passed in a blink of an eye, and in this year, the 3,000-point defense battle has been fought several times, and white horse stocks have led the decline all the way to the market, with the market value of CATL and BYD China Ping An decreasing by 242.7 billion, 171.7 billion, and 125.3 billion respectively, and A-shares have evaporated about 8 trillion in the past year. For the bear market, I have experienced 2008, 2005, experienced the Sino-US war, and seen countless times of thousands of shares falling limit, the market is ups and downs, there are no investors who have been calm, and there is no ** that has been rising. Therefore, it is not easy to engage in investment, ** to earn cognition, to earn experience!
In 2023, the cumulative decline in beauty medicine will exceed 32%, making it the industry with the largest decline. Commercial retail followed closely behind, accumulating** more than 31%. Real estate, power equipment, building materials, and social services have also accumulated more than 20%.
I think "opportunities always fall out", why is Buffett able to ** every time?It is because when the market plummets, there is plenty of cash in hand to buy, because at that time, ** is often undervalued. This year, beauty medicine has plummeted;I lay out Shanghai Jahwa. Real Estate**;I continue to increase my position in Vanke A, Poly Development, and C&D shares. The value of the power industry returns, and at this time, I lay out Longyuan Power, China Southern Power Grid Energy Storage, and Tongwei Shares. My strategy is that the more the industry falls, the more opportunities there are, and the most to do this year is to buy, buy, buy!
Accounts
As of December 29, 2023, the personal investment income is -647%, CSI 300**1138%, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 37%, and the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1354%, the GEM index fell 1941%, outperforming the CSI 491%, Shanghai Composite Index -277%, outperforming the Shenzhen Component Index by 707%, outperforming the GEM by 1294%。And in the first three quarters of this year, the account made a profit of 213%, and the loss reached 920%。For the loss in the fourth quarter, I learned two big lessons!
Lessons
Everyone looks at Gree Electric Appliances, from 26 yuan to 41, nearly doubled **, Gree Electric has always been my largest holding stock, because I am too confident in Gree Electric Appliances, there is no appropriate **, affecting the overall income. From a profit of 40% to a drawdown of 30%, it affected my overall earnings, which is a typical lesson!
Everyone looks at Ping An, with the adjustment of the market, Ping An's share price is also high**, and the income rises and falls!
If you look at Vanke A again, the stock price has been adjusted for a year, and it will make a profit of 30% during 2022, but I did not sell it at that time because I have too high expectations for the future recovery of the real estate market, and I feel that the valuation of Vanke A is still very low, but I ignore the overall environment of the market and believe too much that the strength of the policy can control the direction of real estate. So far, I have lost 30% and have taken a perfect roller coaster!
Gree Electric Appliances, Ping An of China, and Vanke A have all had roller coasters**, which is also the most headache for me in the past two years.
The picture above is the weekly chart of PowerChina, which is the biggest harvest this year, not because of how much income he has brought me, but because his trend has made me gain a lot!
At first, the reason why I laid out PowerChina was not only because he was undervalued, but also because the stock price was long and regular, and I felt that he had the potential to break through, but in May, I was hit hard, that is, ruined. This is to make me realize the truth of "horizontal for a long time", don't look at how many years the stock price has been, it is often a trap, and the high level is often a signal of change.
The reason for this year's loss is due to the fact that there is no proper ** in the high level of holding**, which led to the fourth quarter**. The main thing is to ignore the best environment, and the best control in my investment system is not combined with reality, which is the most fundamental reason for my loss.
* It is a place to buy low and sell high, and it is the key to making a profit if you know how to buy low and sell high. From the above analysis of several typical loss cases, the most critical is not selling in the right position.
Investing money is not easy to earn, and every buying and selling decision will affect your earnings throughout the year. So in 2024, I will continue to improve my investment system and strengthen the improvement of ** control!
Operation
February. Because there was no operation in January, it went directly to February, and in February, Nanjing Pharmaceutical and Renhe Pharmaceutical were established, and a price limit board (Sany Heavy Industry) was eaten.
March. In March, Baiyun Mountain was excavated, and Baiyun Mountain was directly built at that time.
April. Increase the position of China Power Construction, China Construction, Vanke A, Poly Development, and harvest the property in the big limit, and there is a big rise and retreat of China's boulders, with a profit of 30
May. Additional positions: C&D Group, TCL Technology, Sany Heavy Industry.
Clearance: China Railway Construction and Sinotrans were able to make stable profits in the first two quarters.
July-September. Because the market has been in the third quarter, the operation is still not much to hold, so let's analyze it together.
Yangyuan Beverage was the only company to make a profit in the third quarter and the fourth company to make a profit this year.
Warehouse: Shanghai Jahwa, BOE, China Southern Power Grid Energy Storage.
October. In October, Shanghai Jahwa and China Southern Power Grid increased their energy storage, and Yunnan Baiyao was newly built.
November. In November, Renhe Pharmaceutical and Daqin Railway were sold, making a profit of 20% and 13% respectively, and then at a price of 2725 of the ** increase in Tongwei shares, the new ** Longyuan Power (20.09 yuan). The only two companies sold in March were Renhe Pharmaceutical and Daqin Railway, mainly because these two companies have been bucking the trend, because they are afraid of roller coasters, so they are sold.
December. In December, it is mainly based on the analysis industry, and in terms of operation, it is mainly because the industry in which Aier Ophthalmology is located is huge, and in the short term, there is a high stock risk, but looking back ten years later, 19 yuan is the price of cabbage.
Although 2023 is a loss-making year, there are also many typical operations!
China Jushi was out in April this year, and the stock price began to be the first to be the first to avoid the risk of **, so I also made a profit of 30% from it, so no matter how good the company is, we must know how to be happy!
In the picture above, the white circle position is the position where China Railway Construction was sold at that time, which can be said to be sold at a high level. China Railway Construction made a profit of 72%, mainly due to the fact that it seized the "Chinese word" in April.
In the first three quarters of this year, the positive returns are mainly due to the "Zhongzitou" enterprises, this operation made me realize the importance of ambush, because there is no reason to buy it and rise, underestimating holding is the last word.
Yangyuan Beverage made a 40% profit in this operation, and the trend of Yangyuan Beverage is very similar to that of China Jushi and China Railway Construction after it was sold. Therefore, it is extremely important to stop in time and be content in the market!
China Eastern Airlines Logistics can be said to be the enterprise that has benefited me the most this yearChina Eastern Airlines Logistics makes me more convinced that "the listing is overvalued, and then the stock price continues to adjust," I call this kind of ** side "falling pole must rise", this kind of enterprise is a good time to ambush. At the beginning, China Eastern Airlines Logistics lost 25%, but in the past month, this 25% was directly pulled back.
In the middle of 2023, the market environment is not good, the industry is not good, and the investment is not profitable, but I think this is an opportunity, because the bear market is a bull market after the end. What you have to do in a bear market is to buy, buy, buy, and wait quietly for the bull market to come.
Perception
In the operation in 2023, there are many deficiencies, and there are many places to improve, but in the Year of the Bear in 2023, I have also learned a lot, probably I have realized four points
This year, ** has continued to break through new highs, and ** stocks are also rising, such as;Lao Fengxiang, who does jewelry, has an annual increase of 66%, and under this kind of ****, Lao Fengxiang bucks the trend mainly because of the **skyrocketing price of the relevant industrial chain**, but I still think that these are worthless. For me, it is of little practical use in investment, it is not productive, and it does not create any value for society. He is just an ornament, a handicraft, and an industrial object, so I am resisting ** stocks in the future.
Pig enterprises do not plan to touch it in the next few years, because the cyclical nature of pork is too strong, the cost is not easy to control, and the future market will only have a decrease in growth. There are only two kinds of related pig enterprises that want to expand their income. Clause.
First, compress the market share of peers, which will intensify the competition in the industry and form a vicious competition. Second, to open up new areas, simply put, is diversified development, such as the combination of photovoltaic and pig farming. The first is a vicious circle, and the second is more risky.
For me, ** is forever resisted, pork is no investable value. These two industries are not optimistic about the industry in the next ten years, and they are also industries that will not be touched.
Lu's Spring and Autumn Bozhi" said that "the whole must be missing, the extreme must be reversed, or the extreme Tailai", in **, I summarized it as "the fall of the pole must rise, and the horizontal must fall for a long time". At this time, I found that the things of my ancestors are also very practical in **.
The so-called falling pole must rise, which means that the stock price of China Eastern Airlines Logistics has been overvalued after several years
It will fall for a long time, which is my operation in China Power Construction. When the stock price has been maintained in a certain area to give investors a sense of the stock price traces, this is very dangerous, and the risk has been warned.
"If it falls, it will rise, and it will fall for a long time" is my biggest perception of the technical side in 2023, and it also makes me more perfect about the technical side, and in the future, I avoid unnecessary risks.
Everyone knows that liquor is the best business model for A-shares, but I don't think so, I think the power industry is the best business model for A-shares
Clause.
First, electricity will never be sold;Clause.
Second, the background of the power company is very powerful;Clause.
3. Electricity is a monopoly industry, and only the state has the right to operate;Clause.
Fourth, we can go a day without drinking, but not without electricity.
From these four aspects, the power sector is better than liquor, so I am optimistic about power in the next ten years. After all, he is just in need and is run by the state, so he does not have to worry about selling, and the more electricity generated by the power generation company, the more money he makes. The above is my research on the power sector, and I will continue to explore high-quality companies in the future.
In December, I have been analyzing the eight best industries in A-shares in the next decade, which are: food, electricity, new energy vehicles, health care (traditional Chinese medicine), artificial intelligence, smart home, non-finance, and infrastructure.
At this stage, I have analyzed the three sectors of food, electricity, and new energy vehicles, and I will improve the other sectors in January.
I analyze these eight industries because I think they have great potential for development in the next ten years, and in the future investment, I will also focus on these eight industries to select**, which is a direction for my future investment.
Investment system
My investment system is:Profit Only buy the company you are familiar with + good ** + good company + correct operational thinking + reasonable **control.
I have always strictly adhered to my own investment system to select excellent companies, because I know that the investment system is a norm for me and plays a restraining role. We will inevitably encounter some emotional operations in the investment process, and at this time, the investment system will come out to regulate itself, which is actually equivalent to the country's laws and enterprise management regulations. This is also the reason why I regard the investment system as so important, it is the foundation of my money, but the essence that I have condensed for more than ten years.
Staying in the market for a long time, in fact, I just want to have a peace of mind, peace of mind research, peace of mind holding, how to come to this peace of mind, the best way is to engage in their own investment system within the enterprise, when there is an underestimation of the layout, when there is a big rise in profit retreat, save profits, and then go over and over again to study and dig the bottom of the enterprise, this experience, every time I summarize I will mention, the reason is, quiet wisdom, peace of mind can be far-sighted!
From 2012 to the present, the index has gone from 2,000 points to 5,000 points and then to around 3,000 points now
In the year of the bear market, I found a lot of problems, such as the ** control in the investment system, this year's loss is a big loss in the control, which also shows that the investment system is still insufficient, in the year of 2024, I think we should make up for the shortcomings of the system.
In this regard, I thought of a way to impose a kind of restriction on ** control!For example, if a company is held for one year and the income reaches 20%, I consider selling. The specific rules still need to be continuously practiced before a set of standardized restrictions can be found.
Shareholdings
In 2023, there will be about 25 operations, of which 8 new companies will be added, and 6 will be cleared. This year, it is mainly to increase positions, and secondly.
This year, there are 30 companies, and the top eight heavy stocks are, Gree Electric Appliances, Ping An of China, Vanke A, China State Construction, China Eastern Airlines Logistics, TCL Technology, Guangzhou Automobile Group, and Baiyunshan. Eight companies account for 50% of the total **, and the industries held are generally scattered, but most of them are mainly white horse stocks. In the future, holding will still be based on a concentration and diversification strategy, which can also reduce risks and increase returns.
Plan
2023 has passed, and the new year 2024 is about to begin, in the new year, firm your direction, lay a good foundation, get ready, roll up your sleeves and work hard, and welcome the bullish 2024!
The country has a new economic goal, so I also have a direction for the new year, so I set a goal for myself in 2024: first of all, I want to make up for it back to 2023 647% loss, followed by outperformance, steady progress.
future
After the epidemic, the whole country is embracing a new future, and there is a scene of recovery of all things, so China's economy, I have always been unswervingly bullish, China will definitely surpass the United States in the future and become the world's largest economy, so China's opportunities are still very large.
In terms of index, 3000 points have been gaining momentum for many years, and now that the epidemic is open, favorable policies will continue to be introduced, so we must be prepared for the next 1-2 years, after the bull market in 2007, there was a bull market in 2015, that is, the interval between each bull market is not more than 10 years, so the future environment is worth looking forward to, and I also judge that there will be big opportunities in the next 2-3 years, and the response method is to ambush the main!
I have also been optimistic about A-shares, and everyone is talking about A-shares for more than 20 years, and they have not risen. I want to break this concept, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen 28 times from the beginning of 100 points to the current 2900 points, and it is really false to say that it has not risen. It is mainly the characteristics of A-shares that rise and fall sharply, which leads people to form a wrong concept of A-shares. At this stage, the A-share system is not perfect enough, and the protection of ** is not big enough, but I think in the market, we should ignore the index and actively focus on choosing good companies.
What will happen to A-shares in the future?Can it really be protected?To be honest, I don't know. But what I do know is that only by ignoring the index, calming down and strengthening confidence can we survive in the vicious capital market. In the future, I will focus all my investment energy on food, electricity, medical health (traditional Chinese medicine), new energy vehicles, artificial intelligence, smart home, infrastructure, and non-financial eight industries for in-depth research.
Ignore the index, calm down, be confident and welcome 2024!