In the first half of this year, China's RMB deposits increased by more than 20,000 billion, continuing the momentum of rapid growth in 2022. Among them, residents' deposits increased by 119 trillion, more than 60% of last year.
But unexpectedly, after entering July, there was a sudden major change, and the deposit did not increase, but decreased significantly.
Renminbi deposits fell by 112 trillion yuan, of which the decrease in residents' deposits also reached 809.3 billion yuan.
I feel that everyone does not consume much, and they dare not invest, and the money should be stored in the bank, but the bank's money has decreased significantly.
It's very curious, where the hell does the money go?
Everyone knows that the money stored in the bank is relatively safe, so it is unlikely that the money will enter **buy**buy**.
Will you buy wealth management products?
In fact, from the end of last year to the first half of this year, the total scale of wealth management products has declined slightly, which shows that a lot of money from the sale of wealth management products has entered deposits, mainly because of the net tide of bank wealth management around last year.
A large number of investors concentrated on redeeming wealth management products, which also led to a certain pressure on market liquidity, which also led to fluctuations in wealth management products, and the net value of products further declined, forming a vicious circle.
It is precisely because of this that the redemption wave has led to a decline in investors' confidence in bank wealth management products, and it will take some time to repair the information.
Therefore, for the time being, it is impossible to transfer a large area of funds from bank deposits to bank wealth management products.
So is the decline in bank deposits due to the fact that money is going into consumption?
There is a possibility of this, and it has the potential to become a trend for some time to come.
Many people's feelings are that they dare not consume or downgrade their consumption now. But if we look at the macro data, consumption is really growing.
However, this increase in consumption is likely to be partially offset by a decrease in population.
What is more worrying now is the decline in the birth rate of newborns, which is a major impact on China's development and economic development.
The decrease in newborns will mean that the population of our country will become smaller and smaller, and all of our industries are closely related to the population.
The base of our population is 1.4 billion. Last year's birth population fell to 10 million, and it is unlikely that it will break 9 million this year.
The first thing that affects this is the consumption associated with newborns. Industries related to newborns, such as maternity hospitals and early childhood education to elementary and junior high schools, are likely to shrink as the number of newborns declines.
In the longer term, it is certain that the burden of old-age care in society will increase. Not only that, but due to the aging population, this will also lead to more hospital expenditures, which will undoubtedly increase the pressure on society.
Secondly, the pressure on young people will not be reduced, and the burden of pension will also increase on young people.
Not only is the burden of pension on young people, but also living expenses such as housing loans and car loans are a kind of pressure, which also leads to many young people's willingness to have children after marriage is very low.
All of this will ultimately affect consumption.
However, the state has begun to issue new measures in response to these situations.
The latest financial data from the other day showed that the pace of monetary growth seems to have slowed down, from M2, which was above 12% in previous months, to just over 10% now, which is obviously not a good sign.
However, the relevant parties immediately took action, and the latest MLF rate was immediately lowered, and if nothing else, this month's LPR will also be lowered.
And after the loan interest rate is lowered, there may be a new round of RRR cuts.
If we can promote the flow of more deposits to consumption and the real economy through various financial measures, then the predicament we are facing now will be effectively improved.