Those who sing the praises of China's economy will be disappointed
As we approach the end of the year, it's time to take stock of our wallets.
According to the latest data, RMB deposits increased by 644.6 billion yuan in October, an increase of 831.2 billion yuan year-on-year. It looks like people are still keen to save money. However, a closer look at the data reveals some interesting changes.
Household deposits actually decreased by 636.9 billion yuan
Deposits of non-financial enterprises decreased by 865.2 billion yuan
Deposits of non-banking financial institutions increased by 506.8 billion yuan
Fiscal deposits increased by 137 trillion yuan. (Financial deposits are mainly funds from the treasury and funds allocated by the government to government agencies and other special funds.) )
It turns out that household deposits have actually decreased!
In the first three quarters of this year, household deposits increased by 14 percent across the country42 trillion yuan. Surprisingly, however, in the first month of the fourth quarter, there was a decline in household deposits.
Another set of data shows that in the first 10 months, residents' deposits totaled 1378 trillion, loans 382 trillion, with a loan-to-deposit ratio of 361。This figure is lower than in the first nine months of this year and the same period last year.
What is the concept?The loan-to-deposit ratio is declining, either deposits are decreasing or loans are increasing.
This could mean that people are changing their savings and investment strategies and confidence is starting to return!
But don't get excited, let's take a look at the data. If we look at it over a longer period of time, the problem remains.
Please refer carefully to the chart below, which is the data of residents' deposit-to-loan ratio from January to October in recent years.
There is no harm without contrast.
From 2007 to the present, it is normal for the loan-to-deposit ratio to be lower than 2.
So, it's not a normal value yet.
There are more critical onesIn the first 10 months of this year, the number of new resident deposits hit a record high in the same period in history
This is an astonishing increase of 1 trillion yuan over the same period last year.
As of October of this year,The total deposits of Chinese residents have reached 134 trillion yuan.
If we average it over a population of 1.4 billion, the savings per person will reach 950,000 yuan.
If calculated as a family of three, the average family savings are close to 300,000 yuan.
In fact, everyone knows in their hearts that putting money in the bank and shrinking every year is indeed not the best solution.
But what can be done, now the safety of the principal is the first, and the pursuit of income can only be the second.
In order to solve the problem of saving more money and investing less, we need the property market to pick up and let everyone see the confidence of investment.
Fortunately, there are signs of recovery.
At the moment, a series of signals reveal a positive trend.
First of all, the growth rate of social finance is a gratifying sign.
Social finance, or social financing, represents the total amount of money that the real economy receives from the financial system.
When the increment of social financing increases, it means that the real economy has received more funds from the financial system, and the vitality of investment and consumption is stimulated.
On the contrary, the decline in the growth rate of social financing indicates a slowdown in the flow of funds in the economy, and the expectation is pessimistic, which is obviously not good for economic development.
The latest data shows that the increase in social financing in October reached 185 trillion yuan, 910.8 billion yuan more than the same period last year, and the growth rate of social finance also increased by 03 percentage points, ** to 93%。
Finally, the growth rate of social finance has come out of the trough for 4 consecutive months!
Secondly, the M2 growth rate has finally straightened the waist again.
We all know that if you want to see how much money there is in the market, you have to pay attention to M2.
M2 is like a thermometer of money, which can measure the total amount of money in the market. Especially after 2008, the growth rate of M2 is like a hanging, generally more than 12%, and even more than 20% in some years.
The latest October M2 increased by 10 year-on-year3%, finally stopped the trend after several months of decline, and the growth rate remained the same as at the end of last month.
However, it remains to be seen for a few months whether M2 growth has bottomed out and whether it is about to start to stop**.
In addition, there are also a number of indicators showing signs of warmth in October.
The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 7 percent year-on-year6%, an increase of 2 from the previous month1 percentage point.
The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4 percent year-on-year6%, 01 percentage point.
From January to October, private investment after deducting real estate development investment increased by 9 percent year-on-year1%
As these economic indicators pick up, we need to be a little more confident about the upcoming 2024!