The Politburo meeting is over.
The Politburo meeting at the end of each year is a meeting that sets the tone for the economic work conference, and the economic work conference is the most important work conference for the next year.
The importance is self-evident.
One of the outstanding features of this meeting is that it is concise, and the full text of the press release is only 619 words in total.
The short length of the article means that it is not appropriate to over-speculate and interpret the specific content and measures;But when we compare and summarize the overview, we will find that it is worth noting: the statement of three stability is missing.
Highlight the work of stabilizing growth, employment, and prices, and effectively prevent and resolve themSignificantrisks, to promote the overall improvement of economic operation, realizedEffective improvement of quality and reasonable growth of quantityIt is a good start for building a modern socialist country in an all-round way. - 2022 Politburo meeting.Last year's meeting included a statement on the three stability, and the cancellation of the three stability statement this year means that the economy has achieved substantial results in the recovery phase after the reopening.
Therefore, in this year's wording, although there is still a risk to prevent and defuse, the word "significant" has disappeared from the report. (2023 wording:.)Prevent and mitigate risks
Overall, it can be concluded that the impact of the epidemic is gone, the economy has returned to normalcy, so the focus in the coming year will not be quantity, but quality. (2023 wording:.)Coordinate high-quality development and high-level security
Therefore, for next year, the task is not to promote the economy to improve, but the economy has formed an upward trend, weIt is necessary to consolidate and strengthen the positive trend of economic recovery(2023 wording:.)
So, how can we consolidate and strengthen the positive momentum of economic rebound?
1. Promote stability with progress, first establish and then break.
There was no substantive change in the wording of this meeting in terms of specific policies such as fiscal and monetary policies, but it was put forward in the general tone of the policy: "Next year, we must persist in seeking progress while maintaining stability, promote stability with progress, and establish first and then break down." ”
Seeking progress while maintaining stability is last year's wording, and there is continuity between the two, but the statement of promoting stability first and then breaking down reflects the obvious adjustment of the tone of the work, which is in line with the previous goal of consolidating and strengthening.
The restoration work is a thing of the past, and the various special circumstances of the past are no longer the reason for the ineffective explanation of the work of the units.
From this point of view, GDP may be the top priority of the local ** performance appraisal next year.
As a matter of fact, the truth that "development is the foundation and key to solving all problems in our country" has long been well known. It's just that the emergence of the epidemic has forcibly changed the logic of social and economic operation, and "promoting stability by progress, first establishing and then breaking" can be regarded as reaffirming the last word of development.
2. A virtuous circle in which consumption and investment promote each other.
This is an important change.
Again, the expansion of domestic demand used to be the case of consumption and investment – each with its own requirements and each with its own importance;But this time, it is a combination of consumption and investment. (forming a virtuous circle in which consumption and investment promote each other).
From the perspective of the relationship between investment and consumption, the two are a closed loop.
Investment forms production capacity, production capacity creates products, products are used for consumption, and consumption completes the closed loop of investment. The economic cycle constituted by such a relationship between consumption and investment is a virtuous circle.
In fact, accumulation and consumption are important contents of political economy, but in the past, under the influence of Keynesian economics, demand policies were mostly described separately from the perspective of the troika, and the relationship between them was rarely emphasized, so this exposition of the relationship between investment and consumption is a bright spot.
On the one hand, it shows that the domestic and international dual circulation is still the direction of work next year, and on the other hand, it also shows the change in the guiding ideology of the economy.
The elaboration that consumption and investment are mutually reinforcing may imply an increase in the importance of supply-side structural reforms in next year's work.
Obviously, this is good news.
Due to the relatively streamlined nature of this meeting, we can only analyze the directional wording, and the specific content needs to wait for the convening of the ** economic work conference.