On December 13, the financial statistics and social financing data for November 2023 released by the People's Bank of China showed that China's RMB loans increased by 109 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 136.8 billion yuan;The increase in the scale of social financing is 245 trillion yuan, 455.6 billion yuan more than the same period last year.
At the end of November, the balance of broad money (M2), the stock of social financing scale and the balance of RMB loans increased year-on-year respectively. 4% and 108%, on the whole, finance strongly supports the real economy.
In the first 11 months of this year, RMB loans increased by 2158 trillion yuan, the increase in loans has exceeded the level of last year, and the strength of credit support for the real economy remains stable.
Experts interviewed by ** Times Brokerage China reporters pointed out that due to the impact of last year's high base, the year-on-year growth rate of M2 and the scale of new RMB loans in November have declined, but on the whole, financial support for the real economy has not decreased, and the credit structure has improved. At present, China's policy focus is switching from monetary policy to industrial policy and fiscal policy, and credit delivery will remain stable and orderly.
The credit structure improved in November.
Renminbi loans increased by 109 trillion yuan, the scale of new credit in the month showed a trend of "month-on-month increase and year-on-year slight decline". In terms of structure, corporate loans remained stable in the month, while household loans improved.
The People's Bank of China recently released the third quarter monetary policy implementation report, which proposed that it will focus on strengthening the balanced allocation of loans, coordinating the credit work at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, and moderately smoothing credit fluctuations. The general view of market institutions is that credit supply will stabilize at the end of the year and there will be no big ups and downs.
Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, said that considering that a large number of special refinancing bonds have been issued by local governments since October, some existing loans will be repaid one after another from November, which will hedge the total amount of new loans, but the overall stability is at a reasonable level.
In terms of sub-sectors, household loans increased by 292.5 billion yuan in November, of which short-term loans increased by 59.4 billion yuan and medium and long-term loans increased by 233.1 billion yuanLoans to enterprises (institutions) increased by 822.1 billion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 170.5 billion yuan, medium and long-term loans increased by 446 billion yuan, and bill financing increased by 209.2 billion yuanLoans to non-banking financial institutions decreased by 20.7 billion yuan.
Wen Bin pointed out that short-term loans and medium- and long-term loans to residents performed well in the month. Under the influence of the "Double 11" shopping festival in the current month and the low base in October, the short-term loans of residents improved. Under the superposition of the promotion of the real estate market support policies and the reduction of the interest rate of the existing housing loans, the medium and long-term loans of residents were boosted in the month.
For the bill financing of the month, Wang Xianshuang, co-chief analyst of Guangfa ** Bank, believes that some banks increased their holdings of bills at the end of the year to hoard quota for the "good start" at the beginning of the year.
The increase in the scale of social finance remained stable.
The increase in the scale of social financing in November was 245 trillion yuan, 455.6 billion yuan more than the same period last year. Among them, RMB loans to the real economy increased by 111 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 44.7 billion yuan;**Net Bond Financing115 trillion yuan, 499.2 billion more than the same period last year, was the main reason for the increase in the scale of social financing in the month.
* The increase in net bond financing was a bright spot in November's social finance data. Zhang Xu, chief fixed income analyst of Everbright, told reporters that each sub-item of social finance, including bond financing, reflects the financial support that the real economy receives from the financial system.
Zhang Xu emphasized that the issuance of loans, the purchase of ** bonds and corporate bonds are all ways for the financial sector to support the real economy. "The financial sector buys ** bonds, and the financial system spends the funds raised by bond issuance to the real economic sector, which obviously makes the real economy get funds. He said.
He also pointed out that at the end of the year, the government will issue an additional 1 trillion yuan of treasury bonds, which has formed a strong support for the growth of social finance. The impact of last year's high base is gradually fading, and it is now in a new wave of social finance growth.
In addition, the net financing of trust loans, undiscounted bank acceptance bills and corporate bonds increased year-on-year in November. Among them, trust loans increased by 19.7 billion yuan in November, an increase of 56.2 billion yuan year-on-yearUndiscounted bank acceptance bills increased by 20.3 billion yuan, an increase of 1.2 billion yuan year-on-yearThe net financing of corporate bonds was 133 billion yuan, an increase of 72.6 billion yuan year-on-year.
Credit disbursement will remain stable and orderly.
At the end of November, the balance of broad money (m2) was 2912 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10%, and the growth rate was 03 and 24 percentage points. Narrow money (m1) balance 6759 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13%, the growth rate was 0.0 lower than the end of last month and the same period last year, respectively6 and 33 percentage points. The scissors gap between the two has further widened from the previous month, reflecting the low efficiency of capital activation, and the current confidence of enterprises and residents needs to be restored.
Since the beginning of this year, the year-on-year growth rate of M1 has shown a downward trend as a whole, and its performance has been sluggish in the past two months. Zhang Xu believes that on the one hand, this is due to the fact that enterprises have improved the efficiency of the use of funds and transformed demand deposits into financial products with both liquidity and income or other types of depositsOn the other hand, it also reflects that the foundation for China's sustained economic recovery still needs to be further consolidated.
Looking forward to the future monetary policy, Li Chao, chief economist of Zheshang, believes that the monetary side is expected to maintain a tight balance, considering the balance of payments pressure, it is difficult to cut interest rates, and the probability of a RRR cut within the year is not large, and the RRR cut may be in the first quarter of next year. At present, China's policy focus is switching from monetary policy to industrial policy and fiscal policy, and it is expected that monetary policy will assist industrial and fiscal policies, and credit delivery will remain stable and orderly, avoiding big ups and downs, and the structure will increase and decrease.
Wen Bin believes that under the general tone of "prudent monetary policy should be flexible, moderate, precise and effective" and "moderate total amount and stable rhythm" of credit delivery at the first economic work conference, the growth of money and credit will not only maintain solid support for the real economy, but also emphasize sustainable and stable delivery, so as to better match the needs of macroeconomic development and business entities. Financial institutions will accurately grasp the law and new characteristics of the supply and demand of money and credit, strengthen the dual adjustment of the total amount and structure of money, better smooth the monthly and quarterly fluctuations, and promote the stable growth of China's economy with the stability of credit growth.