The country has decided on the property market, and there will be 3 good news in 2024, and the confidence of the two groups will increase greatly
Author: Vertical and Horizontal Markets.
In the past two days, I have seen two news reports, and I can't help but feel a lot of emotion.
One is, according to Leju's understanding, a real estate project outside Xiamen Island will be sold at 4 in the hot property market in 20202-4.70,000 square meters, but the first opening sold 1.6 billion, you can imagine the kind of real estate that thousands of people grabbed and shook wildly. Now, the first order has finally been opened for the sale of second-hand houses, with a unit price of 3190,000 yuan, a 100-square-meter house lost more than 1 million, and if you count the interest, it will be even more.
Second, People's Daily Online published an article entitled "College Students, Returnees, Entrepreneurs, etc., 12.2 Million People Return to Their Hometowns to Become New Farmers in 10 Years". According to the article, over the years, the state has increased its support for rural revitalization, and more and more graduates and migrant workers have joined the high-quality rural team, especially in the past five years, the proportion of graduates involved in agriculture has increased significantly. Data shows that from 2012 to 2022, the number of entrepreneurs returning to their hometowns reached 12.2 million, and it continues to show a rapid growth trend.
The seemingly unrelated news is actually inextricably linked. As far as the current property market in Xiamen is concerned, the case of this real estate is just a microcosm of the national property market, when people rush to the sales office, they must be thinking about buying 40,000 now, and may sell 50,000 or 60,000 in the future. When the property market is hot, why do you see such a bleak scene in the blink of an eye?At the end of the day, it's a matter of demand. According to the central bank's research report, only 4 percent of the urban population does not have a house, and it can be said that everyone has a house. So, what kind of rigid needs does the real estate market need?
With the history of the rapid development of the property market for more than 20 years, it is obvious that rural people continue to flock to the cities to study, work, and even settle down in the cities. But the reality is that with the increase in urban housing prices, farmers who go to the city to work and settle down are often in a dilemma, just as they move out, the state has increased investment in rural construction, science and technology to rejuvenate agriculture, talent to help agriculture, more and more young people return to their hometowns to start a business, employment, even if the income is a little lower, no longer worry about monthly rent and high expenses, as reported by the People's Daily Online Farmers returning to their hometowns has become a trend. The total population is very large, and in this case, there will be fewer and fewer rural people to support the development of the urban property market, which is undoubtedly subtracting for the recovery of the property market.
With the decline of the property market, the risk of the property market is also increasing, and the former governor of the central bank said that the real estate industry is the biggest gray rhinoceros. Historically, nine out of ten property market crises not only affect the real estate industry itself, but also bring about financial system and economic crises, Japan and the United States have similar lessons, we in Hainan in the 90s of the last century also have a lesson, this is not a joke. To this end, Shangguan News published the latest commentary, entitled "The downward trend continues in November, and the new tone is set in 2024, where will the property market go in 2024", which puts forward the focus of the property market in 2024 to find the answer, and the article focuses on the analysis of the tone of the economic work conference on the property market next year:
It is necessary to actively and continuously resolve real estate risks, meet the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises of different ownership systems without discrimination, and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market. At the same time, it is emphasized that it is necessary to accelerate the construction of affordable housing"Flat urgency"construction of public infrastructure, transformation of urban villages, etc"Three major projects"。Improve the relevant basic systems and accelerate the construction of a new model of real estate development.
Compared with the expression of the real estate part of the ** economic work conference in previous years, this time it has the most ink. Putting real estate risk mitigation in the first place means that next year, in 2024, all work in the real estate sector will revolve around this premise. To put it bluntly, to solve the problem of property risk next year, it is necessary to meet the financing of the property company and give the money to the property company, which is related to the fact that the property company has defaulted on debts in the past two years, the payment should be paid to the business, and the money should be paid to the bank, leaving a bunch of unfinished buildings to buyers, and buyers can only cut off the supply, of course, buyers who have not entered the market do not dare to buy their houses, forming a vicious circle.
It is no exaggeration to say that if the financial problem of real estate enterprises is solved, even if the property market is not as huge as in the past, at least it will not be as cold and silent as it is now. Of course, there are two sides to everything: it's been a bad two years for real estate businesses and real estate investors, but it's not a good thing for people who have housing demand but are still outside the market. Towards the end of the year, we enter 2024 with these 3 good news for the property market, congratulations to those who have not yet bought a house and are ready to buy a house.
First, home buying spending has dropped significantly.
Compared with the high point of housing prices in 2021, housing prices in most cities have fallen considerably, specifically in terms of districts and counties, even in large cities, the 3% decline is also a reference line, and those non-elite areas and far suburban counties, this decline is considerable, for half of them is none. It originally took 2 million to buy a house, but now it only takes 1 million to buy, which may be less difficult for many ordinary families, without the pressure of 1 million mortgages, poetry and distance can be taken into account.
While the decline in house prices may vary from place to place, the other costs of buying a home have dropped a lot compared to previous years. The average mortgage interest rate is basically around 4 points, and in some places it is still below 4 points, and according to the latest tone in the United States, the issue of interest rate cuts may be discussed next, which also provides a favorable external environment for us to continue to reduce the funding rate. And more and more cities are joining"Sell the old and buy the new"In the issue of subsidies, the subsidies for talents to buy houses, as well as the reduction and exemption of taxes and fees related to housing purchase transactions, these expenses add up to a large amount. I have to say that first of all, housing prices should be put aside, and now the house purchase subsidy should be the most powerful stage.
Secondly, the construction of the existing house sales system has been accelerated.
The data shows that developers now have more than 1 5 property rights in existing houses, and then treat the house as a WYSIWYG house**. When buying a house, you can go to the organization to see, the house type, design, room feeling, garden landscape, project quality, etc., which houses can be bought, which houses are not worth buying, that is all seen with your own eyes, and there will be no more misleading propaganda like the past.
Someone asked: What about other real estate?In order to avoid the occurrence of unfinished buildings and false advertising, since the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development proposed to carry out a pilot project for the sale of existing houses in 2023, some areas of Hunan, Zhejiang, Sichuan, Xiong'an and other provinces and cities have announced the launch of the pilot sales of existing houses, and ** also issued a document announcing that the pilot of commercial housing sales will be carried out in the near future. It can be said that today, when the term housing has been called for to be abolished, the commercial housing sales system has begun to become a reality. Buyers can buy the house they want, which also objectively guides developers to build higher quality housing, which is conducive to high-quality real estate development.
Third, homebuyer confidence is at its lowest point.
We have to admit a fact. If the market is unstable and does not pick up, even if you really need to buy a house urgently, you don't dare to sell easily, because there is no bottom, and no one wants the house they bought to fall after a while. Now it seems that the possibility of the property market bottoming out is increasing. The data shows that in Beijing and Shanghai, due to the reduction of down payments, the reduction of interest rates and the normal adjustment of the implementation of the new policy for ordinary residential subscriptions, the transaction volume of new and second-hand houses in the two cities has increased significantly, and there has been a long-lost one"Hot weekend"Last month, a similar situation occurred in Shenzhen after the New Deal, as of now, the transaction volume of second-hand homes is still in the process of growth, and the transaction volume of new homes rebounded last week!Last week, the transaction area of new homes increased by 31%, indicating that the policy is still fermenting. Reasonable**, this round of housing market with the first-tier cities in September for the first time to optimize the housing market policy, along with the possible third relaxation of purchase restrictions this time, superimposed next year's Xiaoyangchun, the housing market sentiment gradually rose, and buyers' confidence will begin to pick up.
All in all. Overall, from the current real estate market support policies are related to the purchase of the first house and the optimization of the second house policy, according to the current trend, it is expected that the first-tier cities of the industry purchase restriction policy may also be loosened in the purchase restrictions, so for our rigid needs and improvement groups is the most beneficial, With the stabilization of the property market, the two types of rigid demand and improvement will become more and more confident whether they are buying a house or changing houses.
However, there is also a common trigger. The stabilization of the property market does not mean that it will take off immediately, as mentioned at the beginning, the objective environment of the property market is no longer what it used to be, and we must face this reality. If there is a house that needs to be liquidated and replaced, it is almost imminent, just take a look. If you want to buy a house, you still have to meet the criteria for self-occupation to choose, buying a house is not a matter of a while, you have to consider the next few years, to see if your community can really land planning, if your house is going to be replaced in a few years, who is the receiver, in **?All of these issues should be analyzed before buying a house.
In the end, I want everyone to be able to live in the house they want.