The Dragon Boat Festival is one of the important festivals in Chinese tradition, and it is also a time when people are willing to buy pork to cook zongzi and enjoy delicious food. However, this year'sHogs**But it brought a surprise to the market**, contrary to previous expectations. On June 23, the country includes important provinces Henan, Shanxi, Hubei, Jiangsu, Heilongjiang, Sichuan, Guizhou, Hunan, Shandong, Guangxi, Xinjiang, Gansu, Anhui, Zhejiang, Shaanxi, Yunnan, Jilin, Hebei and other placesHogs**Generally declining. HogsThe reason is mainly in the case of oversupplyEconomyOverabundance of breeding due to involution. In this case, the pressure on frozen products in all links has increased, and buyers have also taken a wait-and-see attitude. With the superposition of supply and demand pressures, the marketHogsThe momentum is becoming more and more prominent.
However,Hogs**Doesn't mean** that it will only tend to be sluggish all the time. in the presentSupply and demandIn the context of imbalance, the ups and downs of ** are only the prelude to ups and downs, and it is inevitable that similar rocks are used to fill up the bumpy market fluctuations. In the case of oversupply, there are some self-breeding farmers in the market who can still obtain small profits. For large groups and distributors, it is their common goal to avoid being the first to be eliminated by the market, so they are not willing to take the initiative to reduce production capacity. This mentality has led to a long-term bottoming out of pig prices in the market, not soon**.
1. Oversupply and consumption blowout
Some people think that the current pig price is because the consumption is not strong, but the actual situation is not the case. On the contrary, the current demand for consumption is very hot, especially in 2023, which is seen as the strongest year for consumption performance. Well, whyHogs**Still**?In fact, the current oneHogsIt is mainly the result of oversupply. In the case of an increase in the number of breeding and a surplus, the amount of ** in the market far exceeds the demand, resulting inHogsTherefore, we cannot simply blame the pig price ** on the consumption is not strong, but fromSupply and demandfrom the perspective of the problem.
2. Pig breeding enterprises maintain inventory, and production capacity has not been significantly adjusted
Overcapacity has always beenHogsThe root cause of the market downturn. According to the data, as of the end of May, the national breeding sow herd reached 42.58 million, exceeding the normal number of 41 million 1039%。Of particular concern is the fact that pig breeders are not reducing their sow population, which means that the market will quickly replenish more sows in the short term, exacerbating the oversupply situation. In addition, the sales of breeding pigs have not decreased significantly, and they have gradually decreased, but medium and large enterprises have increased the number of breeding pigs, which has laid a hidden danger for the future pig price.
3. The adverse effects of hot weather on pig breeding
As the weather becomes hotter and hotter after the Dragon Boat Festival, especially the high humidity weather in the south, it is particularly unfavorable for the growth of large pigs. Therefore, some people are starting to worry about whether they will be able to stick to the price reduction, which also needs to look at the direction of the market. In recent years, the southern regionHogsFarming has undergone tremendous changes, with the northern region reducing production capacity while the southern region is increasing production capacity, maintaining a relatively balanced state without significant depletion. In particular, there are many farmers with strength and financial capacity in the southern region, which provides a good soil for rapid breeding in the south. fromCorn, soybean meal andFeedIn terms of sales data, the performance of the south is the most prominent.
To sum up, the market is forHogsThere are two main points of view. One view is that withHogsCapacity adjustments, Q3Hogs**It's going to get better, and it's not going to be too good this year or next. Another point of view is that this year's pig prices will continue to ** or grind the bottom, and the Dragon Boat Festival may becomeHogs** The turning point. Although these two views are at odds with each other, they both have their validity and make people feel confused. In fact, whether it is pig price ** or **, it cannot be accurate**, because in the process of pig price ** there will also be ****, and in the process of pig price ** there will also be ****. So we're now interested inHogsWhether the trend is or downside is difficult to determine. In addition, this year's pig breeding enterprises have not significantly reduced the sow herd, coupled with the influence of weather factors, resulting in the current pig price grinding time may be longer. For free-range farmers, the current strategy should be to stay surrounded but not fighting, wear down the enemy, and use the standby opportunity to defeat the opponent, but this needs to consider whether the funds are sufficient.
In short,Hogs** Changes are subject to a variety of factors, and there is uncertainty about the direction of the market. When making decisions, farmers should consider the market situation and their own situation comprehensively and make appropriate adjustments. At the same time, the first and relevant departments should also strengthen supervision to avoid excessive market fluctuations and protect the interests of farmers.