Tucao stays in 2023 and hopes to give it to 2024.
At the end of the year, we should summarize and plan at the beginning of the year. As the old saying goes, everything is foreseen, and if nothing is planned, it is wasted, and it makes sense.
The master put the last two complaints about the industry in these last two days.
Today, I want to talk about the fact that there is really not much time left for teachers.
1.Go ashore for stability.
Whether you are taking the civil service exam or becoming a teacher, the core purpose is to go ashore.
The ultimate goal of going ashore is to seek stability and ensure a long-term harvest from drought and flood, and it is not difficult for those teachers who are about to retire in the past two years to achieve this goal.
But for the post-80s and post-90s generations who have been in the teaching team so far, we have to prepare in advance.
We are determined to delay retirement, and even if we wait until retirement, the original model will definitely not work.
In the past year, Master has traveled to some European countries and cities to study their education issues because of his research topic.
To be honest, it has only been about 40 years since our land really entered the world of commodity economy.
Western society has experienced at least three or four rounds of economic crises, and we and our families have not really experienced even once, when I talk to the people around me about the future, retirement, and the survival of teachers.
In fact, most people are more concerned about the stability of the establishment, and as for the rest, everyone is indifferent.
The final foothold of all the basic logic of this society and even the operation of the family must be the economy.
The economic base determines the superstructure, but also the functioning of the family and society.
All phenomena within the teaching community are the role and reflection of the economy.
From Fujian's high-paying recruitment of non-staff primary and secondary school teachers, to Dr. Qingbei Shuo's southward "gold panning" in Shenzhen.
It is true that some teachers have it, but some of them are not much.
2.Compulsory education.
The foothold of the economy is population.
Yesterday in the stormy seas of 2024, I already talked about this issue, and I will add a little more today.
Due to the decline in the population, teachers in kindergartens, elementary schools, and junior high schools will be affected.
And it's all based on data from newborns.
Number of children enrolled in kindergarten.
It peaked in 2021 and has since declined sharply.
It will be reduced by 33% in 2025 and 54% in 2030.
Number of primary school students enrolled.
Peak in 2023. It has since decreased sharply.
46% in 2030 and 62% in 2035.
Number of secondary school students enrolled.
Peak in 2029. It has since decreased sharply.
53% reduction by 2035.
Some of these three groups of teachers have actually taken action to cope with the professional crisis they will face.
Some have improved their academic qualifications, some have been promoted to professional titles, and some are trying to get closer to the establishment, and no matter how hard they are trying to improve their teaching skills, they will get a piece of the teaching and training pie.
Although there is not much time left, this group still has a relative sense of crisis, not to mention high schools and colleges and universities, which have their own involution physique.
Many of my friends from colleges and universities are either PhDs or on their way to PhDs.
But there is only one group, not only does it not have a sense of crisis, but it is extremely Buddhist, and sooner or later it will lead to big problems.
That's right, this group is secondary vocational education.
3.Secondary vocational education.
Even if there are many college teachers around the master, they may not pay close attention to this group.
Let's talk about science popularization first, what is secondary vocational education?
The full name of secondary vocational education is "secondary vocational education", which is mainly divided into academic education and non-academic education.
Academic education belongs to high school education, including vocational high school, general technical secondary school, technical secondary school, technical school (including technician college) four types of schools, according to the requirements of graduation can obtain secondary vocational education.
Non-academic education includes qualification certificate training and job certificate training in secondary vocational schools and vocational and technical training institutions.
To put it mildly, before a student's **, the high school entrance examination is the second largest exam after the college entrance examination.
Not being able to enter high school and vocational school is the deepest fear in the hearts of many parents.
From the anonymous complaints of secondary school teachers, we can get a glimpse of various reasons.
Although the relationship between secondary vocational and high school is competitive, if it is not a rigid requirement for the diversion of the high school entrance examination, the secondary vocational school is absolutely vulnerable in front of the high school.
But now, the biggest black swan: the collapse of the new birth population has come.
Secondary vocational school data.
In 2021, secondary vocational schools 0730,000.
2018 Secondary Vocational School 1020,000.
2013 Secondary Vocational School 1230,000.
2011 Secondary Vocational School 1300,000.
In the past 10 years, the number of secondary vocational schools has decreased by 5,799, accounting for 44%.
Secondary vocational teacher data.
69 full-time teachers in 2021540,000, faculty and staff data are missing.
In 2018, there were 83 full-time teachers350,000, faculty and staff 106630,000.
In 2013, there were 86 full-time teachers790,000, faculty and staff 115340 thousand.
Data for 2011 were not found. Since 2013, the number of full-time teachers has decreased by 17 in eight years250,000, accounting for 20%.
Data on secondary vocational students.
In 2021, there were 1311 students810,000, enrollment 488990,000.
In 2018, there were 1555 students260,000, enrollment 557050,000.
2013 students 1922970,000, enrollment 674760,000.
In 2011, there were 2205 students330,000, enrollment 813870 thousand.
In 10 years, the total number of secondary vocational students decreased by 893520,000, accounting for 41%.
In 10 years, the number of new secondary vocational enrollment decreased by 324880,000, accounting for 40%.
The proportion of secondary vocational students in the upper secondary school level increased from 50 in 201094% slipped to 41 in 20197%。
Ordinary high schools have a huge siphon for secondary vocational education.
The data does not lie, and secondary vocational education is generally dissatisfied with recruitment, "not having enough to eat", and has a high turnover rate.
This is not the worst, the overall quality of the students is poor, and the top is worse from top to bottom than lying down.
The master chatted with a friend from a secondary vocational school in the north and talked about the problem of reading, which also shattered the master's three views.
For teachers to study to improve their academic qualifications, the school does not encourage, support, or oppose it, and the proper "three noes" is something that scumbags can do.
It takes about 15 years for a child to go from croaking to high school or secondary school.
If the number of new births in 2023 is 7.88 million, it will be enrolling students at the high school level in 2038.
Even if colleges and universities maintain a 100% acceptance rate, there will be a gap of at least 3 million new births this year.
The vast majority of parents and students will never choose a job as long as they can go to high school.
In this situation, how do you carry it if you are a secondary vocational teacher?
The industry is about to disappear, and the big ship has to hit the iceberg before it can turn back
Looking back at the present from the perspective of the future, there is a high probability that secondary vocational schools will be absorbed and digested by high schools and junior colleges respectively.
In this change, a considerable number of secondary vocational teachers will become the process and the cost.
What we can do is pray that the changes are not so drastic and the cost is not so tragic.