The Kuomintang is preparing for 2024 and is facing three "thunders": the voice of Gong Han is rising, the intra-party disputes are continuous, and public support is declining.
According to Taiwan** reports, there has been a situation of "Eight Kings Rebellion" within the Kuomintang, with a total of 8 potential candidates participating in the competition, including Hon Hai Group founder Guo Taiming, New Taipei Mayor Hou Youyi, Kuomintang Chairman Zhu Lilun, China Broadcasting Chairman Zhao Shaokang, former Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu, Taichung Mayor Lu Xiuyan, Sun Wen School Principal Zhang Yazhong, and former head of the supervisory agency Wang Jianxuan.
These eight candidates will compete fiercely within the KMT, and it is still unclear who will emerge victorious. For the Kuomintang, in addition to dealing with ***, it is also necessary to pay attention to three "thunders".
On April 20, "Korean fans" from all over Taiwan gathered in front of the Kuomintang Party headquarters and called on the Kuomintang to include former Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu in the 2024 ** recruitment list.
Liao Shengfang, the convener of the event, said that the KMT should conduct a fair primary and compare Han Kuo-yu, Zhu Lilun, Hou Youyi and Guo Taiming and others, rather than adopting the current incomprehensible recruitment model.
Although Han Kuo-yu has not made it clear that he intends to run, as long as he speaks out, he believes that the "Korean Wave" will rise again. The big moves of Han Kuo-yu's supporters make people feel that Han Kuo-yu's charm is still there.
However, judging from the overall situation in the current blue camp, this is a bit abrupt, because Han Kuo-yu did not make any layout for 2024 after last year's nine-in-one election.
He privately said that he enjoyed devoting himself to public welfare and would do his best to help the Kuomintang in the by-election, but he had no intention of becoming the protagonist.
The Kuomintang recently held a regular meeting of the Central Committee, and on the issue of nominating candidates for the Kuomintang, Lin Jiaxing, vice chairman of the Culture and Communication Committee, accepted questions from reporters. He said that he had met with Han Kuo-yu and reached a consensus to fully support the final nominee candidate.
But on the other hand, during this time, the blue camp supporters have been anxious about the fact that the big candidate has not been finalized so far, which may also be the reason for the "Gong Han" voice. According to the analysis of people on the island, Han Kuo-yu's dynamics are one of the variables in the Kuomintang's candidacy, because Han Kuo-yu holds the right to speak among the deep blue masses, especially the cohesion of "Han fans" is very strong, and only Han Kuo-yu can command and dispatch.
Moreover, Han Kuo-yu's personal influence is about 20% of the votes, which is the "iron vote" that can really be cast. Recently, "Han fans" shouted to the KMT to include Han Kuo-yu in the polls, which is also an example, that is, if Han Kuo-yu is willing to come forward to support the candidate of the blue camp, the KMT will take a dose of reassurance.
If Han Kuo-yu does not move, the blue camp will lose some of its support.
Is Gou's candidacy a challenge or an opportunity for the KMT?Mr. Gou is seeking nominations from the Kuomintang, but he has yet to reinstate his membership. If the blue camp fails to coordinate properly, causing Guo to leave the KMT again, it will have a major impact on the blue camp's election results.
In particular, if Guo Taiming and Ke Wenzhe form an alliance, the joint effect of the two will not be underestimated, and the KMT may lose its competitiveness in advance. Recently, the discussion of whether Guo Taiming will be reinstated to the Kuomintang, whether he will be drafted, and who is more suitable to represent the Kuomintang between him and Hou Youyi, has reached a climax after Guo Taiming's official statement, and even conspiracy theories have appeared about whether Zhu Lilun wants to "pull Guo Kahou" and finally stage a "Hou change drama".
It is worth noting that after returning to Taiwan from an inspection tour of the United States and Japan, Guo Taiming put forward three visions for the future: First, the current is the "era of great negotiations", and Taiwan should follow a new middle line and become a key force in resolving the confrontation between China and the United States.
Taiwan can have a higher dignity and achieve a safer society, and security and dignity are not contradictory, but complementary. Taiwan's economy is moving towards a critical stage of creating a "new science and technology island", however, political issues have dragged down the development of science and technology and the economy.
Guo Taiming once again showed firm confidence in the first, compared with 4 years ago, his posture is more humble, his speech is more tactful, to avoid making mistakes and offending people from all sides, and at the same time actively strive for supporters of the blue camp, showing his different technological, economic and international advantages from Hou Youyi, obviously he is fully prepared.
On April 18, Guo held a press conference, saying that he was confident that he would elaborate his blueprint for Taiwan in the next 30 days, and that his polls would improve.
Kuomintang Chairman Zhu Lilun said at a think tank press conference on April 20 that the KMT will adhere to the principle that it will win more friends and create fewer enemies, and that unity is the key to victory, and he also believes that the main candidates of the KMT also think so.
The impact of Gou's variables on the KMT** is key and could lead to a reversal of the election results. The KMT may be worried that Gou's factor will become negative again, leading to a repeat of the 2020 ** and infighting.
In addition, Ke Wenzhe's high popularity is also a challenge, and how to integrate the ticket source of blue and white is a problem. The Taiwan People's Party is well-positioned to attract middle and young voters, and Ko's supporters are sticky.
According to the latest polls, Ko Wenzhe has the highest support among the blue, green and white, and the People's Party may have more than 15% of the base, even if it does not succeed, it will be enough to affect the votes of other candidates.
According to the analysis of people on the island, the goal of Ke Wenzhe's candidacy for 2024** is not to win the election, but to ensure the survival of the People's Party and avoid being marginalized.
Therefore, it is very likely that Ke Wenzhe will run for election. In this case, the KMT is at a disadvantage, as the votes may be dispersed by the People's Party. In addition, the KMT also needed to complete three stages of integration with a tight schedule, which would only bring them further and further away from victory.
In addition, Hou Youyi seems to lack enough political charisma to produce a significant abandonment effect when the blue and white ticket sources overlap. Therefore, without the integration of blue and white, it would be difficult for the Kuomintang to defeat the already well-prepared *** on its own
Looking back at the history of the KMT candidates, the good results in the Jiuyi County mayoral election in November last year boosted the morale of the blue camp, among which Hou Youyi's re-election was successful and broke the record, making his popularity reach the highest point.
As a result, some people began to propose that Hou Youyi run in the 2024 election. However, since Hou Youyi has just been re-elected, his attitude on this issue is very vague.
The KMT's support declined, and Hou Youyi failed to express his position, resulting in a decline in support. ** The rapid integration, Lai Qingde's posture changed the situation, making the blue camp supporters feel anxious.
In the face of the pressure of 2024**, the KMT needs to decide on the call-up in the shortest possible time, while avoiding ** and striking a balance, in order to talk about the possibility of victory.
In addition, according to Taiwan media reports, AIT Chairman Rosenberg will meet with Kuomintang Chairman Zhu Lilun on April 20.
Zhu Lilun said that the Kuomintang has close relations with the United States, and he will communicate with Rosenberg on issues of mutual concern. Moreover, it was not the first time he had met Rosenberg.
As for whether the KMT's 2024 candidates will be arranged to meet with Rosenberg in the future, Zhu Lilun affirmed that he would, and stressed that AIT has long established close ties with important leaders in the blue camp.
Zhu Lilun specifically mentioned New Taipei Mayor Hou Youyi, who said that Hou Youyi had met many times with AIT director Sun Xiaoya and former AIT chairman Mo Jian, and it is expected that Rosenberg will meet with the most important relevant people of the KMT in the future.
Zhu Lilun's remarks hinted that the KMT might recruit Hou Youyi and arrange for him to be "interviewed" by people from the United States.