A share black swan overreacts, paying attention to 4 core variables!How to get around next week?

Mondo Finance Updated on 2024-01-30

Reading guide:The impact of Friday's black swan on the market,Objectively, it's not that big,Because it's just for the game industry,But it objectively had an impact on Friday's market sentiment,So much so that the market reacted too aggressively,But,We think there was already some reaction on Friday morning,It's just not excessive,Although it collapsed in the afternoon,But it didn't greatly affect the pattern of Friday morning,So,It is not ruled out that the structure and theme want to turn around (position adjustment and stock exchange)......

One thing worth noting is that if it weren't for Friday's black swan, there would be a week of trading time this year, and the key to the public offering would most likely fall on the theme of the game, but on Friday, we saw that the top 10 ** products in the market were all from QDII, and by the way, the highest return in the whole market during the year was pure debt products, with an annual income of nearly 137% as of Friday.

There are 2026 index products, the top ones are all from the animation theme, but less than 35% of the income, ** 748, only 1 on the 30% increase, the top from the TMT sector, note, there are 12811 products in the whole market, 3565 of the positive income during the year, less than 30%, only 462 of the income of more than 5%, less than 4%, so, this year's public offering is still very specific.

This is going to talk about the redemption by the way, a few days ago a letter of the report has a certain impact on market sentiment, and the weekend saw the agency's report update, which mentioned that "the market is nearing the end", in fact, since the third and fourth quarters of the CK guidance is not a lot, but it is true that the redemption of the people, so it must be passively sold, the data, the scale of equity products is about 4 trillion, if 06%, then the average daily is two or three billion, which is indeed still a bit specific, as the turnover shrinks to an average of around 702.1 billion, it gives people the feeling that the selling order is very limited......

Secondly, we want to talk about the situation of private placement, the latest data shows that as of the end of November, hundreds of private equity since its inception net value has been cut in half, the worst performance has lost more than 90%, during this period there are 11,033 ** strategy products to update the performance, of which 4,019 products have a net value of less than 1 yuan, accounting for 3642%, therefore, this year's equity category, whether it is an institution or **, is very different.

Third, at this point, we think it is necessary to look at the valuation, the overall PE of A-shares is 1615 times, which has fallen below the mean, and the PE after excluding financial services is 2527 times, below the mean, the latest PE on the GEM is 4656 times, which is close to -1 standard deviation, has fallen below -1 standard deviation twice in history, once at the end of 2018 and the other in 2013, so the current index valuation has tended to be cheaper in comparison with historical data.

Valuation is dynamic, it is true that it cannot be said that the valuation is cheap, or that it should be, but the valuation can reflect the value and the deviation and unity in the stage, when the market is hot, there is usually a synchronization of valuation and **, but it is possible to deviate significantly from the value, but when the market is weak, the valuation, ** and value may be unified, but it is often the supply and demand that are determined, reflected in the emotion, and the implementation of the **, and the current buyer and seller sentiment is still unstable, and even sell more than buy.

The fourth place to pay attention to, may fall on the annual report expectations, although the annual report is still early, but the forecast is coming, if the market buyers and sellers can not balance the power, then the annual report performance of the better area, at least can play a role in resisting the fall, because what institutions buy next, in fact, most of them are blind, so the weak ** needs to be defended, but if the buyers and sellers are balanced, or even the short side is exhausted, then even if the buying order is not amplified, the market is likely to be low**even** Uplink ......

So at this moment, it is indeed difficult for us to continue to be pessimistic, because the odds and winning rates are going up in both directions, which is very certain, of course, there are indeed uncertain points, such as the public offering redemption mentioned above, such as the outflow of foreign capital, which are the two largest bearish forces in the market, from a micro point of view, these two forces are stable, the market can be stable, so the left side is very certain, but the right side still needs time!

Looking back at the index and industry, this week, the Shanghai Composite Index **094%, Shenzhen Component Refers to **175%, GEM **123%, science and technology 50**049%, CNI 2000**368%, note that the weekly line of the Shanghai Composite Index is close to the previous gap of 2862 points;The GEM has basically completed the retracement of the weekly wave 1 high, reaching the expectations at the beginning of the year;The CNI 2000 weekly line has accelerated slightly, but it has gradually shrunk, and the disadvantage is that the MACD underwater death fork is basically formed, so there may be a "high cut low" demand in technology.

In the industry, coal, power equipment, home appliances, nonferrous metals and banks led the rise, so this week there were some "coal flying color dance", media, computers, social services, commerce and retail and real estate led the decline, of which the media fell as much as 1112%;In terms of subject concepts, PEEK materials, marine economy, HIT perovskite cells and water purification and other concepts led the rise, note that the first two are because of the news, photovoltaic cells can only be regarded as over-falling, and there are some "Maoning" over-falling ** demand in it.

Digital reading, intellectual property rights, data confirmation, Kuaishou concept and short drama games and other concepts led the decline, it can be said that a Friday laid the state of a large number of subdivisions of the media industry, so the power of the black swan is great, but the media industry has not been greatly expanded, so a lot of funds are not out, this is not because the power of the black swan is not enough, but the media subdivision on Friday fell in batches, and it was too late to ......

The above mentioned 4 core variables, the market wants to turn left to right, theoretically indispensable, note, this has not yet superimposed macro variables, because the short term may not see obvious marginal improvement, next week there will be December data out, then we will see, in general, before the variable is not absolutely reversed, we still think that shrinkage is a good thing, whether it is shrinkage ** or** , all mean that the power of the bears is weakening, and if it can't be sold, it means that the pre-holiday effect will also decrease, so next week we prefer *** structure gradually prefers "high cut low"!

I'm Mu YiDeliveryMy cognition,However, it is not used as an investment basisProfit and loss come from the same source, and knowledge and action are one!

Kunpeng Project

Related Pages