In 2024, how do you look at the a** field, will there be a big turning point?
Text: Huang Zhihua.
2023 A-share ** ended. As of December 29**, the Shanghai Composite Index reported 2974 points, and the whole year was **37%；The Shenzhen Component Index was reported at 9524 points, 13 for the whole year54%。In 2022 and 2023, the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Component Index corrected the three consecutive positive lines of the previous three years, closed out of the negative line of the annual line for two consecutive years, and gave up most of the gains in the previous three years.
GEM refers to the whole year**1941%, the largest decline, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and the CSI 300 Index have been negative for three consecutive years. The BSE 50 Index rose sharply in the fourth quarter, and the whole year was **1492%。
From the perspective of the annual ** pattern, in 2023, the Shanghai Composite Index once recovered most of the losses in 2022, but the pressure of locking was greater, and finally bottomed out again and closed with a downward trend.
Test the 20-year** long-term upward trend line
The Shanghai Composite Index 20-year moving flat** is the long-term support line of the most important bottom since 2013, which has supported 1849 points in 2013, 1974 points in 2014, 2440 points in 2019, 2646 points in 2020, and 2863 points in 2022.
On January 4, 2019, the Shanghai Composite Index probed the bottom of 2440 points at a low level in 20 years** and pulled out a nearly 4-month rally, and then repeatedly sorted out, and then probed to 2646 points on March 19, 2020, and fell to a strong support for nearly 20 years of mobile ** (at that time it was around 2560 points), and on April 27, 2022, it was adjusted to 2863 points, and on October 31 of the same year, it fell to 2885 points, and then fell nearly 20 years of mobile flat**, and then stopped falling and rebounded.
In the future, whether the 20-year **, as a long-term upward trend line, can form an effective support is more critical.
6 large boxeslevelParallel beltspattern
Judging from the fluctuations in the past two years, the Shanghai Index has formed a large box operation pattern, showing a five-layer structure fluctuation phenomenon, forming 6 horizontal parallel support pressure zones, which are approximately 2900 points, 3040 points, 3150 points, 3220 points, 3320 points, and 3420 points.
These 6 parallel support pressure bands are: the first is the connection of the three important lows of 2863 on April 27, 2022, 2885 on October 31 of the same year, and 2923 on October 23, 2023, the second is 3023 on March 16, 2022, 3031 on December 23, 2022, and 3053 on August 25, 2023, and the third is 3147 on March 9, 2022. The low point connection of 3155 points on August 2, 2023 and 3144 points on June 26, 2023, the fourth line is 3226 points on July 18, 2022, 3223 points on February 17, 2023, and 3229 points on April 25 of the same year, the fifth line is the low point of 3312 points on July 28, 2021, the high point of 3310 points on January 30, 2023, and the high point of 3322 points on July 31 of the same year, and the sixth line is 3424 points on July 5, 2022, On May 9, 2023, two important highs at 3418 points were connected.
The above 6 parallel support pressure bands constitute the fluctuation pattern of the large box in the past 1 year, the fluctuation pattern of the large box has formed a long-term long-short balance fluctuation state and market cost area, which is estimated to be difficult to break in a slightly longer period of time, and it is estimated that the large box will still be digested in 2024, especially the fifth and sixth parallel zones of the 5th layer, and the fifth and sixth parallel pressure zones need to be broken through in the future, and the bull market can be presented.
From the perspective of the 5-layer large box, the first layer (between the first and second parallel lines) is the bottom area, forming four important bottoms: 2863 on April 27, 2022, 2885 on October 31 of the same year, 2923 on October 23, 2023, and 2882 on December 21, 2023. In these 5-layer large boxes, market transactions are mainly concentrated in the second, third, and fourth floors (between the second and fifth parallel lines). The third to the fifth parallel line between the first.
3. The fourth layer (between 3150-3330 points) is estimated to be digested for a long time in the futureDescending channel 6 descendingParallelLine pattern
Judging from the descending channel formed in February 2023, 6 descending parallel lines have also been formed, the first is the connection between the two lows of 3223 on February 17 and 2923 on October 23, and the second is 3168 on May 25 and 3053 on August 25. The third is the connection between the 3,342 high on March 7 and the low of 3,078 on September 22, the fourth is the contour line of 3,313 on May 18 and 3,177 on September 4, the fifth is the contour line of 3,396 on April 18 and 3,257 on August 18, and the sixth is the contour line of 3,418 on May 9 and 3,381 on July 31.
The first descending parallel line is currently intersecting with the first horizontal parallel line of the large box at around 2920 points, and the descending channel composed of the second descending parallel line and the fourth descending parallel line is the main descending channel in the past 1 year, gathering the main transaction, and effectively getting rid of it in order to reverse the weakness, and at present, it intersects with the second horizontal parallel line of the 60th and large boxes around 3030 points, becoming** The stage strength and weakness watershed, especially the sixth descending parallel, is currently intersecting with the third horizontal parallel line and the annual line of the large box at 3140-3170 points, which is the medium-term strength and weakness watershedThe area around the annual line is the bull and bear dividing line
The second descending parallel line mentioned above is currently intersecting with the first horizontal parallel line of the large box around 2900 points, constituting the current support.
The second descending parallel line and the fourth descending parallel line constitute the descending channel for the main descending channel in the past 1 year, gathering the main transactions, and effectively getting rid of the weakness can be reversed, while the fourth descending parallel line, the fifth descending parallel line is currently intersecting with the semi-annual line and the second horizontal parallel line of the large box at 3030-3080 points, becoming the watershed of the strength of the first stage, especially the sixth descending parallel line is currently with the annual line, The third horizontal parallel line of the large box intersects in the area of 3140-3170 points, which is the medium-term strength and weakness watershed.
The area of the annual line to the sixth horizontal parallel line (3420 points) of the large box is a dense hedging area in the past two years, and it is estimated that it is still a pressure that needs to be digested for a long time in the future.
The above-mentioned area around the annual line or the target of the bulls in 2024 can recover and stand firm, which makes the low support in late December 2023 form a bottom, and then try to develop under the domestic and foreign environment.
The area around the annual line can be said to be the dividing line between bulls and bears, and if it can continue to break through in the future, a first-cycle bull market may come.
The important cycle window in 2024 and the two main lines of excavation
According to Huang Zhihua's analysis at the end of 2022, May 2023 is the 120th month since the Shanghai Composite Index bottomed at 1849 points on June 25, 2013, which is an important turning cycle window. In fact, May 2023 is the highest point of the year, constituting a high-point turning cycle window effect.
Looking forward to 2024, according to the analysis of the cycle series of "** Investment Engineering" written by Huang Zhihua, February and August are important cycle periods, and February is the 120-month cycle since the turning point in March 2014, August is the 15-year cycle since the peak of July and August 2009, and the 10-year cycle since the start in July 2014.
According to the historical trend, after half a year or more than one year of adjustment, Shanghai and Shenzhen often form a wave of turning points in January and February.
Activating the capital market and boosting investor confidence" policy measures are constantly being introduced, and it is believed that their effects will continue to be released, and investor confidence will gradually recover.
As the prospect of the Fed cutting interest rates becomes clearer, the RMB exchange rate has gradually stabilized recently, and the attraction of gold at home and abroad has also been increasing. Under the combination of steady growth, the economy is expected to gradually improve. In the future, the overall bullish market still needs to be driven by the continuous recovery of the economy and the recovery of the RMB exchange rate, as well as more and more industrial capital and countries to pick up "bargains".
The market structure in 2024 may form a turning year for the transition from a bear market to a future bull market, and some varieties may be the first to come out of the structural bull market**.
At present, the overall valuation of the market is at a historical low, especially some blue-chip white horse stocks with low valuations and high dividends that have been mistakenly killed are in the strategic investment area in the long run, and may be subject to the funds focusing on value investment** and appear to a certain **, which is the first mining main line. However, many varieties with high price-earnings ratios still need to be improved in the future to enhance their investment valueAt the same time, the small cap represented by the Beijing Stock Exchange with low price-earnings ratio performance and high growth of high-tech, new energy and other innovative varieties, including some related varieties in Shanghai, or out of the structural bull market of innovative technology, this is the second main line of mining.
This article must not be ** without the consent of the author, and this article is not intended as investment advice).
The author Huang Zhihua is a senior ** person, columnist, well-known financial blogger, ** senior investment analysis expert, was the first batch of registered analysts in the country, and has published more than 10 books: "* Investment Engineering", "Bagua Time and Space Law", "I Want to Be a Stock God", "Cycle Fluctuation Rhythm", "Winning Epiphany", "How to Judge the Bull Market and Bear Market", "Wisdom Arbitrage", and "Lingnan Shape Shengxing", "Qinghai-Tibet Tiandao Xing", "Famous Mountain Avenue Xing", "Famous Mountain Bodhi Xing", "Walking Lao Tzu Zhongmiaomen", "Avenue Whereabouts" and more than 10 books.