As 2023 comes to an end, the global economy is stable and improving, and the Federal Reserve starts a cycle of interest rate cuts next year, the market is becoming more and more liquid, and now the world knows that the big bull market in 2024 is coming, how do we grasp the upcoming big bull market?
Let's first review this week's market**, the Shanghai Composite Index was **2969 last Friday56 o'clock, Friday**294256 points, range increase -091%, GEM refers to 1926 on Friday28 o'clock, Friday**184850 points, range increase -231%, the Dow Jones index closed at 37305 this week16**2.92%, and the S&P 500 closed the week at 471919 o'clock **249%, Nasdaq closed the week at 1481392 points **285%。Judging from the data, U.S. stocks continue to break through, of which the Dow Jones index has hit a record high, U.S. stocks are really good, as long as the direction is confirmed, there will be basically no **, the big bull market is unilateral bullish, don't worry about the risk of chasing up. A-shares continued to weaken this week, in line with the exact opposite rhythm of U.S. stocks, especially the ChiNext index, which has been close to a three-year low, and the signal of capital outflows has not improved. Or to put it this way, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, which basically has no impact on the domestic market, and it is really hard to say whether it can get out of the big bull market.
Let's take a look at the main performance of the market this week. The inflow and outflow of funds is as follows: [Note: This is the average increase in the sector, not the increase in the sector index].
Judging from this week's market situation, the leading sector with a large trading volume (more than 100 billion) is media and entertainment (152.7 billion), and the top sector with a turnover rate (more than 10%) is media and entertainment (2074%), Commerce ** (1412%), advertising packaging (1262%), IT equipment (1210%), which is a significant inflow of funds into the direction of media and entertainment. The leading sectors with large trading volume (more than 100 billion) are communication equipment (182.8 billion), software services (343.4 billion), semiconductors (172.5 billion), and components (224.8 billion), and the top (more than 10%) sector with a turnover rate (more than 10%) is software services (13.).97%), communication equipment (1017%), with significant outflows of funds from software services and communication equipment.
Attentive friends may have noticed that the recent funds have been flowing in the TMT sector and have not entered other directions. In the TMT sector, it is not unilateral for the better, it can be seen that the plate is rotating: the media that is strong this week is the second week of strength, while the software services belong to the last week's strength and this week's weakness. For other sectors, it is more like a unilateral outflow of funds, such as winemaking, insurance, etc. The current market capital has not reached the stage of long-short balance, which belongs to the hot speculation of active funds under the theme of artificial intelligence in the case of capital outflow. As Europe and the United States enter the New Year holiday, there are fewer and fewer hot news, this model may not work, if you can't change the style, next week's ** valuation is not ideal.
Judging from the publicly available funds, northbound funds are net **-185 this week7.6 billion, the financing balance (borrowed money**) was dominated by net inflows throughout the week, with a net inflow of 571.3 billion;The balance of securities borrowing and lending (selling stocks short) increased by -2 from the previous week5.5 billion. On the whole, this week's capital is dominated by net outflows, of which domestic capital inflows are about 5.5 billion (about 0 billion last week), and northbound capital inflows are about -18 billion (last week's inflow is about -6 billion).
Judging from the data, there has been basically no change in the past three months, and it is still dominated by northbound capital outflow and financing balance inflow, and northbound capital outflow will affect the trend of most white horse stocks and growth stocks with value investment as the coreThe inflow of financing balances is actually not low, and if they are counterparties with northbound funds, the index should not have such an adjustment, so it can be inferred that the financing balance is not focused on white horse stocks and growth stocks, but on small and medium-cap stocks with smaller market capitalization, so even micro-cap stocks have strengthened so far (such as the Beijing Stock Exchange, of which the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 is **1 this week).05%）。It can be seen that because the funds do not work together, it will be a high probability event for the index to remain weak, and you can know what to do if you want the index to be strong.
Finally, let's take a look at the trading volume: the average daily trading volume this week is 78754.4 billion (last week's average of 8545..)3.1 billion), this week's ** is worse than the previous week, because the previous week had three days of 700 billion trading volume, but this week there are 4 days, Monday's 900 billion trading volume is too obvious throughout the week, this is a typical one-day trip**, such an obvious market signal is even seen **, don't expect the index to go how strong. As can be seen from the trading volume, the market has become more and more sluggish recently, and funds continue to leave the market (consistent with the capital analysis). As for leaving the market and going to **?I think the indices that are now in the first place are the direction of capital inflow, such as the Beijing Stock Exchange, the Hang Seng Index, the NASDAQ, etc. If there is a need for capital repatriation, the funds in the field must make a money-making effect, and the money-making effect has also been analyzed in the plate rotation: the structure of the TMT plate under the reduction game**.
Analyzing the U.S. stock market again, the Nasdaq continued to rise this week to hit a new high this year, and many friends wondered, why did it rise so much?I think that once the trend is formed, it is difficult to change, this is a normal trend, whether it is US stocks, Nikkei, Europe and the United States, or even South Korea, India, etc., all follow this model, and cannot be applied to other indices with the analysis template of A-shares. Last week has already stated that this week is going to break through, the current is still the repair wave after the fifth wave, the second wave of adjustment has not begun, the third wave of the main rise has not begun, as long as the entry funds have not been consumed, I think the second wave of adjustment needs to continue to move back, I don't care when the second wave of adjustment comes, just from the strength of the repair wave, the big bull market in 2024 is estimated to have a big **, we must seize such a certain opportunity not to waste!
After the above analysis, my view is still the same: the big bull market in 2024 is really coming, we can focus on the global market, the madness of funds may be stronger than imagined, don't lightly say that the top of the market is **, in 2024, because there will only be 3 interest rate cuts, and now even the interest rate cut cycle has not yet begun. For A-shares, the appearance is not ready, whether it is northbound funds or financing balances, there is no strong determination to go long, and it is estimated that they will continue to wait for a turnaround. For **, medium-term, and long-term funds, how to invest and how to invest actually know the steps.
Before looking ahead to next week's A-shares, let's revisit last week's market view, which looked like this:
This week's capital is worse than last week, cautious about the domestic market, the more downturned, the more capital attention will be biased towards the external market, continue to be optimistic about the 2024 bull market in overseas markets**. When there is a change in the domestic capital situation, we must give priority to continuity, that is, even if there is an inflow of funds next week, it is not necessarily a signal to stop falling. Don't judge the main force in advance, don't subjectively think that the early support must take effect, please maintain the bearish view in the medium term. The GEM refers to the weekly line of 4 consecutive yin close to the new low of the year, as long as there is a neat turning signal like May 2022, it is worth re-optimizing. Don't worry that the strength of the first yang line is too strong, and it is easier to lose money if the small yang line participates, that is, there is no signal of the long white line, and the gem does not want to reverse the long-term weak trend!In the direction of the theme, the characteristics of the stock game are obvious, and the funds flow to the first place, and follow them. If money starts to move to new themes, throw away old concepts and switch to new ones. In terms of U.S. stocks, there were 6 consecutive yangs at the weekly level as scheduled, and the important thing was said three times: please don't be bearish on U.S. stocks!Please don't be bearish on U.S. stocks!Please don't be bearish on U.S. stocks!If the U.S. stock market appears, we must seize the opportunity to gradually buy lower in the second correction wave.Judging from last week's outlook, the U.S. stock market is strong, A-shares still fail to stabilize are expected, the theme direction continues to follow the capital, there is nothing to add, due to the existence of poor information, we can not grasp the market trend in the first time, but the funds can!So here's how I see it next week:
1. The direction of capital flow is the direction of investment, and the direction of capital outflow is to avoid the direction, the reason is very simple, different markets are applicable: that is, continue to be optimistic about the global bull market!A shares are not ready for the time being, let him be ready before joining the bullish ranks.
2. The Shanghai Composite Index rose and fell back to continue to decline, and the upper shadow line clearly shows that the 5-week line is under heavy selling pressure, and it is close to the extension of the double-bottom connection line in April and October 2022If there is a weak support line, the 5-week line is still the biggest resistance, and if it is not repaired, there are still many risks. The best trend is that the long white candle regains the 10-week line, and the neat long white candle is the real stop signal.
3. The gem refers to the weekly line of five consecutive yin to hit a new low in three years (the new intraday low is not this week), which obviously does not belong to the stop falling signal, the early gem has a historical record of seven consecutive yin, can not be because of the five consecutive yin that it must appear **. In other words, there are still downside risks on the current GEM, and there is little point in guessing the bottom on the left. The GEM is like this, ** does not plan to make the main force make money on the first long white line, and the main force does not plan to grab this**. There is only one white candle that has not been swallowed up (it will be confirmed in two weeks at the earliest), and the GEM has the possibility of stabilizing.
4. The direction of the theme, the characteristics of the stock game are obvious, and the funds flow to the first place, and follow them. It can be confirmed that funds are only willing to flow in the TMT sector, and the nature of funds belongs to free capital, which is only valid for decimal stocks, so don't look at ** stocks and mid-cap stocks, so that there are not many directions under this screening, and it should be easier to grasp, and the rest of the plates don't care how much they have fallen. In terms of U.S. stocks, the important thing is to say three times: please don't be bearish on U.S. stocks!Please don't be bearish on U.S. stocks!Please don't be bearish on U.S. stocks!If the U.S. stock market appears, we must seize the opportunity to gradually buy lower in the second correction wave.
Provincial: Continue to be optimistic about the global bull market in 2024, the current rhythm is all overseas, and the focus should be on overseas QDII**or**. A-shares are not ready to meet the big bull market, and it is only suitable for the range game of small-cap TMT** fast in and out, and the big swing opportunity is still not there.
Special note: 1. The above content is only a personal investment diary and does not have a guidance function.
2. The views are for reference only, and investors need to judge whether to follow the ideas.
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