As of December 15, the mainstream negotiation of BPA in East China was 9700-9800 yuan, and the center of gravity was at the middle and low end, down 400 yuan tons from the end of November, a decrease of 394%, down 550 yuan from the December high**, down 534%。
The main factors that led to the decline of this round of bisphenol A** were: 1. Partial overhaul or unplanned shutdown device gradually resumed and restarted, and spot ** repair (in November, bisphenol A regular inspection and unplanned parking or load reduction were more, resulting in a temporary shortage of bisphenol A spot);2. The downstream demand is tepid, and the domestic epoxy resin and PC capacity utilization rate are around 47% and 48% respectively in the first half of the year3. Some new bisphenol A devices have been put into production, which has increased expectations and aggravated the cautious bearish atmosphere in the market. In mid-to-late December, the evolution of supply and demand, cost and market mentality in the bisphenol A market remains to be observed.
*Aspect: Spot** gradually increased: In mid-to-late December, the first phase of the 240,000-ton-a-year unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical gradually stabilized after the restart;In the second half of the year, the 120,000-ton annual maintenance unit of Shanghai Sinopec Mitsui resumed and restarted. Although the 150,000-ton-per-year plant of Nanya Plastics is planned to be shut down for maintenance in the second half of the year, the operation of the second phase of 170,000 tons per year has gradually stabilized, and the impact is not great under hedging. In terms of new equipment, the 200,000-ton-per-year unit of Longjiang Chemical is currently being commissioned, and it is planned to produce it in the second half of the yearOther Hengli Petrochemical and Qingdao Bay units remain to be observed.
On the demand side: in December, the demand for bisphenol A downstream epoxy resin and PC terminal was weak, and the market was slightly weaker due to the downward impact of raw materials. At present, the epoxy resin industry fluctuates on the edge of loss, and the enthusiasm of enterprises is suppressed, and it is expected that there will be big fluctuations in the second half of the year, and the average operating rate is still difficult to break through fifty percentIn the second half of the PC, the first phase of the maintenance unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical is planned to be restarted, and the load fluctuation of other devices is not obvious, and it is expected that the overall load will be within 70% of the probability.
Cost: In December, phenol and acetone fluctuated around the fundamentals of supply and demand, and the average cost of bisphenol A fluctuated around 10,500 yuan tons. In the second half of the year, the supply, demand and cost of phenol ketones are expected to fluctuate greatly, and the cost change of bisphenol A may be relatively flat.
Mentality: Towards the end of the year, the market news is lacking, and the overall mentality of bisphenol A is cautious and weak in the context of the increase in the industry and the gradual release of new production capacity.