Since mid-October, the trend of rubber additives has weakened, and as of December 15, the cumulative range of accelerator CZ and antioxidant 4020 has been 5,000 yuan and 9,000 yuan respectively. Throughout the fourth quarter, the weakness of the rubber additives market was highlighted, and the factors leading to the continued decline of the market were mainly the following aspects.
Figure 1 Accelerator CZ and antioxidant 4020 market trend chart
**: Longzhong information
First of all, the slow follow-up of the demand side is the key factor dragging down the market. According to Longzhong information data tracking, during the National Day, a number of downstream tire companies arranged to suspend production and holiday, the industry started to decline in the month, and the recovery of tire companies after the holiday was improved, but the semi-steel tire start was better than the all-steel tire start, and through Figure 2, after the National Day, the all-steel tire start continued to decline slightly. Mainly because in the fourth quarter, there was no increase in the demand for all-steel tire replacement market, export orders declined, and some companies implemented price increases in mid-to-late September and early October, resulting in a decline in shipments in the domestic replacement market, weakened support for enterprise start-ups, and showed a downward trend month-on-month for enterprises. In November, the shipment of all-steel tire enterprises became more and more slow, the inventory reserves of enterprises continued to increase, and the downward trend of raw materials was superimposed, and the pressure on production and sales increased. Entering December, the performance of all-steel tire enterprises is still not as good as semi-steel tires, seasonal off-season factors have a direct negative effect on the domestic market demand, the terminal demand in the north and south has continued to decline, and the raw materials have declined, the market industry is bearish on the first, the willingness to purchase is low, and it is difficult to collect money, and the social inventory is relatively sufficient and other multiple negative factors, most of the sales volume of all-steel tire manufacturers have continued to decline month-on-month, and the pressure on production and sales of enterprises has further increased.
Figure 2 Trend chart of the start-up of China's tire sample enterprises
**: Longzhong information
Secondly, from the cost side, the raw material aniline and MIBK products are on a downward trend as a whole. In terms of aniline, due to the concentration of factory maintenance in November, ** was slightly firm, but with the end of the maintenance concentration, the start of construction resumed, **increment, and the market was fast**;The raw material MIBK has continued since October. From the perspective of comprehensive cost, the fourth quarter dominated the rubber additives market.
Figure 3 Aniline and MIBK market trend chart
**: Longzhong information
* On the other hand, most of the main enterprises in the fourth quarter were in normal production and sufficient. In the fourth quarter, the additives started, only Sinopec Nanhua was overhauled in November, and the rest of the plants were running smoothly, while the market was in the first stage, and the downstream procurement was slow to follow-up, resulting in the gradual pressure on the first surface, and the inventory of some enterprises showed an increasing trend, and with the further development of the market, the imbalance between supply and demand became more prominent, a vicious circle, and the market decline was difficult to change.
Overall, the market buys up and does not buy down, because the rubber additives market is in the first stage for a long time, the downstream procurement is relatively cautious, more used with the mining, just need to follow up, and rubber additives enterprises at the beginning of the individual maintenance, more normal production, the overall **sufficient, supply and demand game, there is no lack of low-price competition, superimposed raw materials staged large, accelerate the market downturn.
As raw materials fell close to the cost line, the recent decline slowed down, and the decline of rubber additives also slowed down, but the downstream procurement follow-up efforts have not been significantly improved, and the demand side dragged down the rubber additives market to maintain a low level.