Judging from the trend of changes in the main indicators, some indicators do show signs of marginal improvement, which also shows that some of our optimization and adjustment policies in the real estate sector this year continue to play a significant role.China Housing Daily reporter Xu Qian reported from Beijing
China's property market, which is in deep adjustment, is still lingering.
On December 15, the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in November, the national real estate development investment was 104045 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 94%, a decrease of 01 percentage point;Among them, residential investment was 7,279.9 billion yuan, down 8 percent year-on-year8%。
The market pressure on the sales side is still large. In November, the sales area of commercial housing was 100509 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 8%, and the decline rate was 02 percentage points;The sales of commercial housing were 105318 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 52%, a decrease of 03 percentage points.
Based on this calculation, in November 1, the average sales price of commercial housing in the country was 10,478 yuan square meters, a month-on-month increase of **02%, the average price of housing prices in the country has been declining for 6 months.
However, judging from the monthly sales performance, in November, the sales area of commercial housing nationwide was 79.3 million square meters, an increase of 2% month-on-month;The sales amount of commercial housing was 815.7 billion yuan, an increase of 08%。Although the recovery is limited, at least the sales side has not continued to deteriorate.
Liu Aihua, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics, said at a press conference held on the same day that from the perspective of the trend of changes in the main indicators, some indicators do show signs of marginal improvement, which also shows that some of our optimization and adjustment policies in the real estate field this year continue to play a significant role. But on the other hand, we should also see that real estate is still in the process of adjustment, and this short-term adjustment is also conducive to the stable and healthy development of the real estate market in the long run. In the next step, we still have to actively and steadily resolve real estate risks in accordance with the spirit of the first economic work conference and promote the further improvement of the real estate market situation.
From the perspective of the main indicators affecting the growth rate of development investment, in January and November, the area of housing construction fell by 7 year-on-year2%, a decrease of 0 compared with 1 October1 percentage point;The area of new housing starts decreased by 21 percent year-on-year2%, which has been 26 consecutive months**, but the decline is 2 percentage points narrower than that in October 1. Among them, there is policy support, state-owned enterprises and central enterprises, and the impact of a low base in the same period. However, the decline in the area of new construction starts has exceeded 20% year-on-year for 19 months, resulting in a rapid contraction of the real estate industry.
From the perspective of land acquisition indicators, the land transfer fee in November in January decreased by % compared with the same period in 2022 and 2021, respectivelyAmong them, the monthly land transfer fee in November fell by 17% year-on-year, an increase of 7 percentage points compared with October.
The work of ensuring the delivery of buildings in various places is progressing steadily. 1 In November, the area of housing completions nationwide increased by 17 percent year-on-year9%。Among them, the area of residential completions was 475.81 million square meters, an increase of 185%。
Financing conditions are showing signs of improvement. 1 In November, the funds in place for real estate enterprises were 117044 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 134%, the decline was 0 percent narrower than that in October4 percentage points, the decline narrowed for the first time after expanding for six consecutive months.
Among them, domestic loans fell by 9 year-on-year8%, the decline was 02 percentage points, narrowing for 2 consecutive months;Self-raised funds fell by 20 percent year-on-year3%, the decline was narrower than that in October1 percentage point, narrowing for two consecutive months. The recovery of these two indicators shows that under the promotion of the policy of "meeting the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises with different ownership systems without discrimination", financial institutions are increasing their support for the industry, and of course, the market share of state-owned enterprises and central enterprises has increased, and the effect of ensuring the delivery of real estate has appeared.
However, in the funds of real estate enterprises, deposits and advance receipts were 3,958.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 109%；personal mortgage loans were 1,998.2 billion yuan, down 8 percent year-on-year1%；The year-on-year decline in both indicators increased by 0 from October 15 percentage points. A senior observer of the real estate said that the sales proceeds composed of deposits and advance receipts accounted for 51 of the funds3%, providing the main hematopoietic function for developers, which is not restored, and it is difficult to sustain it by external financing alone, which means that the developer's capital chain continues to be tight.
According to the data of the central bank, in November, household loans to residents increased by 292.5 billion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 59.4 billion yuan and medium and long-term loans increased by 233.1 billion yuan, an increase of 6.9 billion yuan and 22.8 billion yuan respectively year-on-year, indicating that household consumption has picked up as a whole.
At the end of November, the area of commercial housing for sale was 653.85 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 18%. Among them, the area of residential buildings for sale increased by 204%。This indicator has shown a positive year-on-year growth trend for 26 consecutive months, and destocking is still an important task for real estate.
In November, the real estate development prosperity index was 9342, an increase of 002 percentage points, the indicator rose for the first time after 6 consecutive months**.
Overall, the real estate market continued to be sluggish in November, and the market was still in the bottoming stage.
On the same day, the National Bureau of Statistics also released economic data for November. In November, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6 percent year-on-year6%, 2 percentage points faster than in October;The national service industry production index increased by 9 percent year-on-year3%, 1 faster than in October6 percentage points;The total retail sales of consumer goods were 4,250.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 101%, 2 percent faster than October5 percentage points.
1 In November, the national investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) increased by 2 percent year-on-year9%, the same as in 1 October. In terms of sub-sectors, infrastructure investment increased by 5% year-on-year8 percent, and manufacturing investment grew by 6 percent3%, real estate development investment fell 94%。
The National Bureau of Statistics said that with the effectiveness of various macro policies, the national economy continued to rebound. However, it should also be noted that there are still many uncertainties in external instability, domestic demand is still insufficient, and the foundation for economic recovery still needs to be consolidated. In the next stage, we will persist in seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability through progress, establishing first and then breaking through, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, intensify macroeconomic regulation and control, and consolidate and enhance the positive trend of economic recovery.
A few days ago, the first economic work conference was held, which made it clear that "actively and prudently resolve real estate risks, meet the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises of different ownership systems without discrimination, and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market". The meeting also pointed out that the construction of affordable housing, the construction of public infrastructure for "ordinary and emergency purposes", and the transformation of urban villages should be accelerated. Improve relevant basic systems and accelerate the construction of a new model of real estate development.
Many industry insiders believe that in 2024, with the further development of investment stabilization measures, the "three major projects" will be accelerated, and the decline in real estate development investment is expected to gradually narrow under the coordinated efforts of real estate policies at both ends of supply and demand, and the real estate market is expected to gradually stabilize and stabilize.