Hong Kong's South China Morning Post** published an article entitled "The West is Waging a Futile War Against the Inevitable Eastward Shift of the World" on December 30, 2023, written by Anthony Raleigh, a senior journalist for Asian economic and financial reports. The following is an excerpt from the full text:
The idea that the world is divided into two hemispheres in economic and financial terms – one led by the United States and the other by China – is a view that has been frequently expressed lately. This is a common but overly simplistic idea because bigger, more complex things are happening in the world.
This involves changes in Eurasia, which in turn reflect fundamental changes in the direction and dynamics of the world. This is an epochal shift that has the potential to change the global balance of power.
Such a shift is not easy to discern when viewed up close, but the arrival of the New Year is a good time to take stock of what is happening. We may need to look back at history to put things in perspective.
In a recent analysis of this kind, the Dragon Continent Chronicle traces the origins of the ** process we are now witnessing nearly 600 years ago, when Constantinople fell to the Ottoman Empire in 1453. This was "bad news for the religious world at the time," the report said, as it meant that the Turks would control much of the Mediterranean and the "Silk Road." If Europeans wanted silk or spices, they had to pay exorbitant **.
Louis-Vincent Gaff, founder of Dragon Continent Economic News, pointed out in the report that unless another route connecting Europe with India and China can be found. Such a route was indeed discovered. Thanks to the voyages of discovery by Spanish, Portuguese and Italian navigators, the center of gravity of the world economy shifted from the Mediterranean to the Atlantic.
As the report notes, "if ** is blocked in one place, it may reappear in another and become stronger". It is impossible for the Turks to know this, but by blocking the ** of the "Silk Road", they finally gave impetus to the modern period and gradually turned the Mediterranean into an economically backward region.
It's easy to see parallels between this shift and what happened in the years following the launch of China's Belt and Road Initiative. The initiative aims to connect China, East Asia via Central Asia with Europe and beyond through a vast network.
As Kent Calder of Johns Hopkins University in the United States argues in his book New Worldism: Energy and Eurasian Geopolitics in the 21st Century, the Belt and Road Initiative will strengthen the multifaceted relationship between East Asia, the Middle East and Europe, and eventually become one of the world's most important multilateral landscapes.
From this perspective, it is easier to understand the opposition to the Belt and Road Initiative in North America and parts of Europe. However, China is already involved in various infrastructure projects in other parts of the world, especially in the "Indo-Pacific region".
According to the Longzhou Economic Report, the next decade "will see greater consolidation of Eurasia as an economic whole." In this context, the construction of new roads, railways, canals or new freedom** agreements are announced almost every month, thus linking the various economies on the Istanbul to Jakarta axis".
Of course, the global ** revolution that is currently underway is not just improving transportation between countries and continents, the international ** composition is changing dramatically, especially as China shifts to more complex, higher value-added manufacturing and high-tech sectors.
China has played a role in interconnecting countries with their economies through manufacturing and logistics** chains.
All of this suggests that the center of gravity of global business and industry has shifted and is likely to continue to do so for centuries to come. It also shows that the defensive attempts of Western countries to try to turn the tide are akin to using the mantis arm as a car.
At the same time, the dynamics of change driven by the ** that have been unfolded or are unfolding are much stronger than the forces that are trying to thwart it, and equally futile are trying to stop the tide of economic history by opposing the changes in the ** and ** chain networks. According to the report, some countries have encouraged domestic producers to shift production from China to other countries, and as a result, China's ** surplus has continued to grow over the past few years. (Compiled by Zhu Jie).