Methanol and downstream operating rates:
The domestic methanol operating rate is 938%, an increase of 121%, and the current operating rate is at a high level in the same period of previous years. The operating rate of methanol downstream MTO was 8492%, a decrease of 058%, the current MTO operating rate is at a high level in the same period of previous years. The comprehensive operating rate of the traditional downstream in China is 495%, an increase of 15%, and the start of construction increased by 086%, and the current downstream operating rate is neutrally high in the same period of previous years.
Methanol Inventory Latest Port Inventory:
The latest port inventory of domestic methanol is about 7300,000 tons, a decrease of 2 from the previous period870,000 tons, the inventory decreased by 7 in the last month220,000 tons. At present, the overall inventory is at a high level in the season. Methanol circulating stock 35around 20,000 tons, a decrease of 040,000 tons, the current overall inventory is the highest in the same period of previous years. The inventory of methanol in East China is 7300,000 tons, a decrease of 6 from the previous period60,000 tons. At present, the overall inventory is neutral in the same period of the previous year. In terms of arrivals, it is expected to arrive at 84 in the later period330,000 tons, an increase of 1 over the previous period00,000 tons.
**Opinion Sharing:
In terms of thermal coal, port coal inventories have continued to decrease recently, but the performance has been weak. This may be due to lower import costs due to weaker overseas coal markets, while lower expectations of domestic demand have also caused holders to sell early. However, the disruption of production from tighter safety regulations is likely to support the downward trend in coal prices. As a result, thermal coal** continues to decline. In terms of methanol, under the expectation of Shenghong's restart, the market is expected to increase demand. However, supply and demand in the methanol market remain loose due to increased production and import arrivals in the mainland. Although the market's concerns about inventory accumulation have eased, methanol is still under pressure from production restrictions and peak season expectations in the fourth quarter, making it a risk of falling first. To sum up, thermal coal** has a continuing downward trend, while the methanol market supply and demand are still loose. Investors can consider:
Seat Position Analysis:
At present, the first position of methanol** net long is Zhongjin Lingnan, and the first seat of net short is UBS**. In the past year, the most profitable position for methanol is Guotai Junan. The current long order volume is 20010, the short order volume is 44142, the trading volume is 142851, and the net position direction is short. The top three seats in methanol profitability in the past week are: Soochow**, Yongan**, Guangfa**;The top three seats with losses are: Guotai Junan, CITIC**, and Industrial Securities**.
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Important: This report strives to be objective and unbiased in its contents, citations and data. As far as possible to ensure reliable, accurate and complete, but does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information described in the report, the information provided in this report is for reference only, not as the basis for investment decisions, customers should make their own trading decisions, independently bear the consequences of trading. Investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market.