Since the first round of housing reform was implemented in 1998, China's real estate market has undergone tremendous changes. The housing reform has improved the living conditions of the people, and the per capita living area has increased significantly. However, housing prices have also grown rapidly**, with national housing prices rising by as much as 5 percent over the past 20 years5 times. For those who invest in real estate, this means great financial gains. But as time passed, the real estate market entered a period of adjustment, and house prices began to **. Real estate investment is no longer the era of quick profits, and housing prices are gradually returning to residential properties. The performance of the real estate market this year shows that the sales area and sales of commercial housing have declined, and the average price of the second-hand housing market has fallen for nine consecutive months. Under this trend, in the next 5 years, the current 3 million house will not only not appreciate in value, but will be much lower than the current price.
1. The end of the era of investment in the real estate market:
Economist Ma Guangyuan pointed out that real estate as the best investment product has come to an end. Housing prices will gradually return to residential properties. This means that in the future, housing prices will no longer appear fast**, but will be linked to the income of local residents and gradually stabilized. Therefore, in the next 5 years, there will be no significant increase in the value of a house with a market value of 3 million.
2. Analysis of housing price trends in different cities:
The 3 million houses in first-tier cities are either located in remote areas or old neighborhoods. This type of house will not only depreciate rapidly in the next 5 years, but it will also be difficult**. The 3 million houses in second- and third-tier cities, although the bubble is relatively small, are also facing a continuous decline in population outflow and housing demand. As the real estate market returns to residential properties, housing prices in these cities will gradually stabilize or even decline.
3. Changes in the relationship between market supply and demand
The phenomenon of oversupply in the real estate market is already quite serious. According to the data, there are still about 6400 million square meters of commercial housing stock for sale, equivalent to more than 8 million houses. At the same time, 96% of households already own a property. This means that there are homes on the market** that are seriously outstripping demand. In addition, the impact of the epidemic has led to a decrease in income or unemployment for most people, and the ability to buy a home has weakened. People are also becoming more cautious about their expectations of future income and more rational about their home purchase decisions.
4. The impact of policy regulation:
In order to control the rapid development of the real estate market, our country has implemented a series of regulatory policies since 2016, such as the "three red lines" of the central bank and purchase restrictions in various places. In 2021 alone, more than 650 regulatory policies were introduced. These policies have gradually taken effect after years of implementation, and it is very difficult to change the regulatory policies and reverse the situation of the property market in a short period of time.
1. The era of housing prices has ended, and housing prices will show a stable or even declining trend in the future
2.Housing prices in different cities have different trends, but they will be affected by supply and demand and residents' incomes
3.Policy regulation has limited the rapid growth of housing prices to a certain extent**, but it still takes time for the real estate market to adjust;
4.For investment buyers, the current price of a house of 3 million in the next 5 years may not have a significant appreciation;
5.It is even more important for occupants to choose a home that suits their actual needs and financial means.
In short, the correction of the real estate market is an irreversible trend. In the next 5 years, houses with a market value of 3 million may face the risk of depreciation. When buying a house or investing, you should be more rational and prudent and choose a property that suits your actual situation.