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The four economic meetings throughout the year are generally arranged to be held in April, July, October and December, of which July and December are relatively important, and among them, the Politburo meeting in December is more important because it is a summary of the economic work of the year, and it is to establish the development tone, outline the policy framework and build consensus on development for next year's economic work. In particular, the Politburo meeting in October this year did not specifically talk about the economy, so the "long-awaited" December 8 Economic Bureau meeting is even more concerning.
This year's meeting is relatively concise, but there are some new formulations, and we can explore the direction of economic development next year from the press release.
1. To understand the basic direction of steady growth, we will first sort out the relevant expressions of the Politburo meetings in the past three years.
So from last year's stability to this year's stability, it is obvious that the policy tone is more positive. In other words, on the premise of creating a stable environment for economic and social development, we must also further strive for better economic development results next year. So how strong will this "advance" be, and will it be another flood irrigation?
We read that the draft says that the active fiscal policy should be "moderate" and strengthened, and this expression makes it clear that the expansionary policy should be "moderate" and "precise", and that it cannot repeat the mistakes of overcapacity and blind leverage in the past, and that the more important thing for economic development is to improve quality and efficiency.
Considering the trillions of national bonds in the fourth quarter of this year, the early approval of the new local bond quota and the three arrows of special refinancing bonds, it is obvious that the current fiscal policy has begun to expand, so the intensity of macroeconomic regulation and control next year should still have a certain continuity.
Therefore, we expect that the scale of special bonds next year should not be lower than 3 this year8 trillion, probably will be 3Around 8-4 trillion. If the downward pressure on the economy intensifies next year, the 3% deficit ratio and policy banks are also likely to be moderately raised and strengthened. This year, due to the influence of factors such as debt, infrastructure development has been affected to a certain extent, so next year under the premise of "improving quality and efficiency", infrastructure will still become an important driving force of policy strengthening.
Based on this, we can expect that the economic growth target of 5% will continue next year, and we look at the adjustment of the growth target in previous years, and basically do not exceed 05%, so from the perspective of boosting confidence and guiding expectations, next year's growth target is 4The range of 5%-5% is a high probability event.
To achieve this goal, it is obvious that there will be no pressure, for next year's three major projects, such as affordable housing, urban village renovation and other key areas how to promote, we can focus on the subsequent economic work conference.
2. The dialectical relationship between establishment and destruction, consumption and investment
So how to understand "first stand and then break", after all, our language Xi is more inclined to use similar expressions such as "big break and big stand", "not break and not stand", then "do not break and do not stand" is biased towards "break", and "first stand and then break" is biased towards "stand", in fact, the mention of "first stand and then break" is not the first time mentioned: there have been three similar expressions before:
Judging from similar expressions, the initial "first establish and then break" was proposed in the context of excessive and blind carbon reduction in some places in order to achieve the dual carbon goals, such as the phenomenon of power rationing in some provinces in order to control carbon emissions.
So the current "first establish and then break" of course is more directional, but it is consistent with the previous basic meaning and logic, that is, do not make the concept of new and old simplistic and binary opposing understanding, but to correctly grasp the dialectical relationship between the two, adhere to the idea of "development is the last word", learn from the successful experience of "crossing the river by feeling the stones", and make steady progress on the basis of steady growth.
There is no doubt that the new economy, new infrastructure, and new energy are the driving force for high-quality economic development in the future and an important direction for enhancing international competitiveness, but since it is a new thing, its development cannot be achieved overnight.
As for the old kinetic energy, such as some traditional industries, it is also related to employment, domestic demand, etc., so we still avoid sports and sudden braking.
Related to this line of thinking is a new formulation at this meeting: "forming a virtuous circle in which consumption and investment promote each other", which also emphasizes the complementary and mutually reinforcing relationship between consumption and investment.
The previous excessive investment in infrastructure and real estate has exposed some risks, but it does not mean that investment and consumption are opposite, because effective investment can still bring about the growth of demand, so we must strengthen the balance between the development of the two and avoid the problem of overcapacity, and the construction of the three major projects is the concrete manifestation of this idea.
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