Observation Junxun: Recently, the top management has been in a row for 7 months**U.S. Treasuries, this news has attracted widespread attention. According to data released by the U.S. Treasury Department, China's holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds have declined for seven consecutive monthsPositionThe scale decreased by $8.5 billion from September to $769.6 billion, the lowest since 2009. This move raises many questions about why the top management has been selling off continuouslyU.S. Treasuries？How big is the impact on the United States?This article will dive into this**.
Successive sell-offs at the topU.S. TreasuriesThere are three main reasons for this. First of all,GeopoliticsFactors are one of the most central reasons. In recent years, the situation in the world has changed rapidly, and in the event of an unexpected event, the United States may be in arrearsDebt, held by our countryU.S. TreasuriesHuge losses. Therefore, appropriate**U.S. TreasuriesThis risk can be avoided. Second, the Fed's constant interest rate hikes have led to serious occurrences in the United StatesFiscal deficitscrisis, there is a risk of thunderstorms. **U.S. TreasuriesIt will help our country to avoid this risk and protect the safety of our property. Finally, optimizationInvestmentsThe structure is also **U.S. TreasuriesOne of the reasons. InternationalFinanceThe pattern has changed, and China needs to seek new asset allocation and increaseEurosand other new assets to diversify risks.
GeopoliticsFactor: Due to the unstable global situationU.S.-China relationsTensions intensified, and the top decided **U.S. Treasuriesto reduce dependence on the dollar, lowerGeopoliticsThe impact of risk on assets.
2.United StatesFiscal deficitsCrisis: The United States is long-termFiscal deficitsIt has become a hidden danger, high-level **U.S. TreasuriesIt is to avoid the financial risks that may arise in the United States in the future and to protect the security of our property.
3.OptimizationInvestmentsStructure: With internationalFinanceThe pattern changes, China needs to increase the allocation of other assets to reduce the pairU.S. Treasuriesoptimize the international asset allocation structure.
From an international perspective, China and Japan are the world's largestU.S. TreasuriesPossessor country. In recent years, both China and Japan have been in the same placeU.S. Treasuries, which is bound to affectCapital marketsRightU.S. Treasuriesconfidence, causedU.S. TreasuriesDepreciate. However, in fact, the Sino-Japanese holdU.S. Treasuriesscale relativeU.S. TreasuriesIt's not a big deal in total. China-ownedU.S. TreasuriesThe number only occupiesU.S. Treasuries2. of the total size4%, Japan accounts for a slightly higher proportion, but it is only 32%。Overall, even if China and Japan are all sellingU.S. Treasuries, the overall impact on the United States is also limited. In addition, it is worth noting that the United States itself is holdingU.S. TreasuriesThe largest number of countries accounted for more than 70%. theseU.S. TreasuriesIt is mainly held by different organizations such as families, individuals, companies, ** in the United States. For example, the three largest asset management companies in the United States, PioneerInvestments, Fidelity Asset Management and BlackRock**U.S. TreasuriesTogether, the holdings exceed those of most overseas countries. To sum up, although China continues to **U.S. Treasuries, but the impact on the United States is relatively limited.
Capital marketsConfidence: Continuous sellingU.S. TreasuriesProbably rightCapital marketsadversely affects and reducesInvestmentsYesU.S. Treasuriesconfidence, which in turn leadsU.S. TreasuriesDepreciate.
2.GlobalEconomyMarket: The market is for China**U.S. Treasurieswill further affect other countries, especially those in AsiaInvestmentsYesU.S. Treasuriesmay trigger market turmoil.
3.U.S. Fiscal Stability: Despite China's Successive Sell-offsU.S. TreasuriesThe impact on the U.S. will be limited, but if other countries follow suit, U.S. fiscal stability will come under more pressure.
Despite the fact that China continues to **U.S. TreasuriesThe impact on the United States is relatively limited, but that does not mean that the United States can be carefree. The United States itself needs to bear a large amountU.S. Treasuries, if the home countryEconomyGrowth can't be paidInterest, it is possible to faceDebtRisk of lightning strikes. Similar to the situation of Evergrande, if the enterprise cannot be coveredDebtInterest, the capital chain will break, and eventually lead to bankruptcy. Therefore, the United States needs to grow at a high speedEconomyto drive fiscal revenues to copeDebtInterestof payments. However, if the United StatesEconomyGrowth is stagnant,U.S. Treasuriescould completely crush the United States. Of course, the United States as a globalEconomyA strong country, with a strong military force and an unlimited amount of money printing capacity, if such a situation really occurs, what kind of situation will arise, it is not yet possible.
1.United StatesEconomyGrowth: The U.S. needs to remain stableEconomygrowth to pay huge sumsDebtInterest, otherwise it could face financial risks that could have global implicationsEconomyStable.
2.GlobalFinanceMarket: Once the United StatesEconomyStuck in stagnation, globalFinanceThe market will face a huge shockInvestmentsconfidence will be severely shaken and markets will be volatile.
3.U.S. Policy Response: Confronting**U.S. TreasuriesThe United States may take a series of measures to respond, such as adjusting policies and increasing itDebtissuance, etc., to maintainEconomyStable.
7 consecutive months**U.S. Treasuriesshows that China's top leaders are inGeopoliticsRisk aversionand optimizationInvestmentsWisdom and decisiveness in terms of structure. Although China's ** has limited influence on the United States, it is our country's order to protect the security of assets and achieve betterRisk aversionand take the necessary measures. The United States is facingFiscal deficitscrisis andEconomygrowth pressures, itsDebtThe risk of lightning strikes cannot be ignored. However, the United States, as a global power, also has strong stabilityEconomyand the ability to respond to risks. For us personally, we need to keep an eye on the worldEconomywithFinancemarket changes and risks, timely adjustment and optimization of their ownInvestmentsStructuring and asset allocation to deal with market uncertainty and volatility.