The countdown to 2023 has begun.
Looking back on this year, the economy is an unavoidable topic. Many readers asked the captain to talk about the economic situation in 2024, and old readers know that the captain has always done what he said and promised, and he will never break his promise. For many people, 2023 will be hesitant, tangled, and even some people will be tormented. But as far as the captain is concerned,2023 is a lucky year, a year of hard work and harvest.
The captain is a person who is strict with himself, if he sets a plan, he will strictly implement it, find the right track, he will stick to the end, and never give up halfway.
There are always people outside who tell you that this year's economy is not good, it is difficult to do, it is difficult to find a job, it is not easy to make money, it is hard work, busy, from the beginning of the year to the end of the year, it seems that a lot of things have been done, but it seems that no goals have been completed. If you look at the deposits, they have not increased at all, but the liabilities have increased. But there is still a group of people, who are working hard and struggling, and they don't have time to gossip, complain, or do some ineffective socializing. The so-called relatives and friends, small talk and gatherings, will bring about a reduction in business efficiency.
For companies, this is true;The same is true for individuals. Running a family is more draining than running a company.
Making money has always been a thing that requires a high degree of concentration and concentration.
The economy is extremely rational, and making money also needs to be extremely rational. The so-called rationality is to remove emotional weaknesses, which are anti-personality and even anti-human. The anxiety of the group cannot hide the struggle of the individual, always have a positive and optimistic attitude towards life, and do not believe that others follow the clouds. When everyone is saying that the environment is bad, it must be looking at the environment from the perspective of the past. The so-called "bad environment" is nothing more than that real estate is not very good, Internet investment has decreased, and there has been a major adjustment in the structure of foreign trade.
In the past 30 years, China's Internet has been consumer and service-oriented. Why are young people of the past so confident about the future?Because the investment in the consumer Internet is smashed at the individual, not at the machine. For example, if a group gets $1 billion in financing, it does not need to buy machinery and equipment, it does not need to build a factory, except for a very small amount of money to pay rent, water and electricity, most of the money is used to pay employees' salaries.
Rent an office and expand the program ape, you can achieve the expansion of Internet services. This is the case with Internet companies, where money flows into the pockets of young people in the form of wages. The listing of an Internet company can create a group of Internet upstarts. Batch after batch of Internet companies have gone public, creating batch after batch of Internet upstarts, thus leading to the birth of a large number of middle classes.
Yes, you read that right, the service industry is the easiest ladder for young people to counterattack. When a large amount of dollars flows in, even Didi drivers in third- and fourth-tier cities can earn more than 10,000 yuan a month.
But now, China's investment logic has changed. The development of the consumer Internet has come to an end, and it has fully transformed to the industrial Internet and intelligent manufacturing. China's investment has not decreased, and from January to October, China absorbed 987 billion yuan of foreign capital inflows. But what about the money?went to the chip industry chain, the automobile industry chain and other industrial manufacturing industries.
The manufacturing industry that everyone advocates is beneficial to the country, but in terms of distribution, it is not conducive to the struggle of young people. The same $1 billion in financing, the Internet giants got it, that is, to recruit employees, burn money wars, and the money was finally burned into the pockets of everyone involved. But if you invest that $1 billion in an auto factory, $500 million will be used to build a factory, and $400 million will be used to buy production equipment and machinery, and the money that can really be used to pay wages is about $100 million.
China's investment has not decreased, but it has been solidified by the machine and lacks liquidity. China's auto manufacturing industry is obviously thriving, but everyone does not feel warm. Automobile exports are the world's first, but the wages of automobile workers are still very low. The car sold more, and the money didn't make more. That's the huge difference between the internet and manufacturing.
Even if the Internet loses money, as long as the money burning war starts, those who should be raised will also be raised, and users can eat several big chicken legs just by relying on the wool they have gathered.
One is to invest heavily in talents, and the other is to invest heavily in machinery and equipment. Workers on the production line work hard, and their income is not necessarily higher than that of delivery workers. The national economy is still moving forward, but wealth is not circulating in large quantities.
Foreign trade has undergone a structural transformation. Mechanical and electrical products such as automobiles, drones, mobile phones, and digital electronics have become China's largest export categories. The wealth effect brought about by the export of these large items cannot achieve the maximum coverage.
Why did young people in the past worship big entrepreneurs?Because of following them, even if it is a grassroots level, the annual salary is two or three hundred thousand, insist on persevering, mix to the middle and high-level, and when you encounter a good time, you will get a year-end bonus, and it is really possible to make a fortune.
But today, if you join a new energy vehicle factory, you are far from making a fortune. The biggest problem we face today is not the lack of economic growth, but the lack of circulation of wealth.
This situation is unlikely to change in the short term. On the contrary, the most ruthless Internet celebrities and anchors who have been scolded on ** actually have natural advantages over traditional manufacturing industries in terms of wealth circulation and wealth distribution. Because the money that comes in and pays taxes can be freely distributed, and it can be put into personal pockets. Why can the teacher of New Oriental easily earn more than one million a year after becoming an anchor?They're as good as ever, but the distribution mechanism has changed.
These industries distribute wealth according to flow, not according to machine capacity.
If Dong Yuhui doesn't sit in front of the camera in the live broadcast room, he is likely to be a young teacher who is unemployed from New Oriental. Either change careers, or go to the examination and editor, from the education and training industry, to a public institution. But the more stable the industry, the less room for upside.
The country's economy will continue to move forward. The main track of investment has changed. When investment is concentrated on the industrial side, weakness on the consumer side is inevitable.
The captain is a man who refuses to lie flat. There are big tracks in the big environment, and small tracks in the small environment. Compared with chasing hot spots, grabbing the wind, it is more important to stick to your own small track. Don't step on the pit, don't step on the thunder, work hard, stay focused, and wealth will come naturally.
When everyone else is talking about lying down, you must insist on working silently. In many cases, it is only the emotions of the majority of people that are represented, but life outside of emotions is the most real. The aircraft carrier was launched, and the crowd was excited, but life will not change for the better right away. The real estate has exploded, there are complaints, and life still has to move on. Individual lives should not be dominated by collective emotions.
In 2023, it's not so good. In 2024, it won't be so bad.
In many cases, individual struggles cannot be converging with the trend of the times. In a not-so-good environment, adhere to the small self, look for small luck, and struggle is not brute force, nor is it desperate, but precise and focused.
For 2024, the captain writes a small message to all readers:Stick to your little self and look for a little luck.