The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to escalate, and the Russian Navy on the Crimean Peninsula has once again been subjected to air strikes by Ukrainian forces. This makes it possible for Russia to quickly take large-scale retaliatory actions against Ukraine, including drone air strikes and combined strikes by land, sea and air missiles. At the same time, the war between Israel and Hamas continues. Israel has been besieging Hamas and has now trapped northern Gaza City, while intensifying its airstrikes in the southern Khan Younis area. There was once a thought that Israel might be bluffing, but now it appears that Israel's goal is to eliminate Hamas and take control of Gaza.
With the support of the United States, it is difficult for Hamas to compete with Israel, and the disparity in power between the two sides is huge. According to **, three wars in the Middle East could break out in 2024. The first possible conflict is the war in Syria. After more than a decade of civil war and intervention by external forces, the Assad regime has restored control of 70% of Syria's territory. However, the US military has occupied southwestern Syria for a long time and has trained *** militants there. In addition, near Koniko in eastern Syria, the United States has also established outposts. At the same time, the west bank of the Deir ez-Zor River has become an area of Iranian militia activity, where the two sides have been engaged in confrontation.
Syria has close relations with Iran and Allah in Lebanon. Based on their common position of safeguarding their own security, the three parties have coordinated and united on the anti-US and anti-Israeli issues. This relationship can lead to some potential conflicts. First, Israel, as an ally of the United States, may provoke new incidents in Syria to ensure that the situation in the Middle East does not "completely get out of control," especially if Israel clashes with Iran and Allah forces. This could become a way for the United States to intervene in the situation in the Middle East. Secondly, one of the conflicts that could break out is the conflict between Lebanon and Israel.
Israel and Lebanese Allah have long been in hostility and often in military clashes. While the current exchange of fire between Allah forces and the Israel Defense Forces is still confined to the Lebanese-Israeli border area, with the growing influence of Allah in Lebanon and the Israeli military operation in the Gaza Strip, both sides are likely to escalate the current conflict to ease their own domestic pressures. In addition, there is the potential for maritime conflicts in the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf. Recently, Yemen's Houthi rebels seized civilian ships destined for Israel, causing a change in maritime security.
This could lead to new forms of security in the Middle East that have never been seen before. Traditionally, security issues in the Middle East have been concentrated on the Arabian Peninsula and have rarely been addressed with maritime security issues. However, the current Houthi raids on Western merchant ships have caused the United States and other countries to send sea ships to "escort", and these Western ships have become new targets for the Houthis and Iran. Such a scenario could provoke a maritime conflict in the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf region. These potential conflicts will have a far-reaching impact on the security situation in the Middle East and therefore require the great attention and vigilance of the international community.
At present, the maritime security situation in the Middle East is very tense, and once the ships of both sides **, the situation may get out of control. The United States has stated that if the Houthis continue to attack merchant ships, it will not rule out launching attacks on their missile launch sites. It is foreseeable that a large-scale military conflict may break out in the Red Sea region at any time. The United States is desperately needing a victory to boost its regional prestige and ease the pressure on Israel. Iran's emergence as a key force against Israel and the United States, coupled with the détente between Iran and Saudi Arabia, has challenged America's dominance in the Middle East. For the United States, the demand for provocation of war is growing.
Thus, either Syria or the Red Sea direction can become an area of provocation by the United States. However, the main reason why the United States does not dare to act rashly is not that it is unwilling, but that the current Russia-Ukraine conflict has not brought any benefits to the United States. The summer ** has essentially failed, while the military assistance package for Ukraine in 2024 has not yet been determined. Despite Zelenskyy's recent visit to South America and his trip to the United States, the US Congress has yet to approve the 2024 aid bill for Ukraine, which involves tens of billions of dollars in support and is crucial to Ukraine's fate. If the United States does not provide such huge assistance, it will be difficult for Ukraine to continue to resist Russia.
At the same time, if the United States does not provide assistance, the EU's support will be very limited. Due to the weak performance of Europe and the United States in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the conflict may accelerate its end or further escalate. If Ukraine cannot support itself, Russia will be faced with two options. One is to continue the offensive against Ukraine, trying to take control of the entire territory of Ukraine;Another option is to consolidate the areas currently under control and conclude a ceasefire agreement with Ukraine.