The temporary storage suddenly started shooting, and the wheat had a false alarm, but it is still necessary to be vigilant against abnormal situations!
Frightened Bird"The term is used to describe the appearance of geese that fall from the sky without using arrows, just by pulling the bowstring. In fact, this is not so much the skill of the archers as the fragility of the wild goose's mind.
The wild goose was wounded by an arrow and was frightened. When they heard the sound of the bowstring again, they desperately tried to fly higher, but the wound split open again and eventually fell.
The current corn and wheat markets are very much like a frightened wild goose, which has just experienced a sharp decline and has not yet eased up, at this time, if there is any new bad news, the mood can easily collapse.
At this time, new news came from the wheat market, which panicked the market.
The National Grain Exchange recently announced that next week, January 3, 2024, there will be a sale transaction for the minimum purchase price and the temporary storage of wheat in the state, commonly known as the temporary storage wheat auction.
It is true that what we fear will befall us.
In recent days, the wheat market has not been good, but it has also improved slightly, some large companies have increased the amount of wheat, although the overall volume continues to be mixed, but the increase in the volume of large companies has also helped the market to heat up.
But, as we said at the beginning, wheat has just suffered a sharp fall, from the lowest 15 yuan Jin fell to 14 yuan catty, the god of the market has not yet eased up, and suddenly there is news of the auction of temporary storage wheat.
This fact cannot help but surprise many.
However, further down, the mind relaxes again.
According to the announcement, the number of imports is 20,000 tons, and the region is Xinjiang, ** is 2,500 yuan tons (third class).
And, putting aside ** and quantity, when people see that it comes from Xinjiang, they can't help but let out an exclamation and a false alarm.
But always afraid to think everything through, and when you think it through, you will find that the more you think about it, the more you get wrong.
What's wrong?Although everyone was relieved to see that the resettlement site was Xinjiang, in fact, the atmosphere in the wheat market was still tense, that is, the anger was still in the throat.
On the one hand, this is just an announcement, whether there will be more launches, whether there will be a change in the launch site, it is not yet known.
So, in this case, who can put aside the worries?
On the other hand, even without a critical reserve auction, the wheat spot market is difficult to determine.
Since the withdrawal of substitutes, wheat has become isolated, not just isolated, but a little bruised, because at the same time as corn, wheat's mood has also slipped, one after another, and the center of gravity is getting lower and lower.
And at the end of the year, there are two main reasons for the high demand for wheat:
One is for New Year's Day and the other is for preparing Spring Festival soup.
But now, they're all walking a tightrope on the cliff – holding on for their lives.
And now there are only three or four days before New Year's Day, and downstream flour sales are in a state of stagnation, demand is stagnant, and the momentum is very weak.
Although large enterprises have begun to raise wheat ** and intend to increase sales of flour, the current ** considering that everyone can see it, no one will have a large amount of inventory, so the willingness of merchants to receive goods is not strong.
As a result, consumption growth during the New Year's Day period is likely to be disappointing.
So, will the ** of the Spring Festival be good?
I think the odds are also lower than expected.
Because from the perspective of this year's consumption, not only wheat, corn, soybeans and other pre-holiday stockpiles have varying degrees of bearishness, which is also an important feature of the entire macro background, so in the case of corn consumption is still on hold, not to mention the return of demand for wheat feed, the probability of a sudden increase in demand is very slim.
As a result, most of this year's pre-sales have two features:
One of them is the delay in the preparation time.
Consumption is not moving, stock consumption is slow, and enterprises are not in a hurry. Plus the price **, which we are looking for"The bottom", so a sudden move higher is unlikely.
With the off-season of demand after the year, there is a risk of further decline, and there is also a wait-and-see mentality of more heavyweight enterprises.
Another reason is that inventory accumulation is lower than expected.
Corn and wheat also have this problem, and the support is naturally much weaker.
Therefore, although enterprises are raising prices now, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the wheat market has not changed, and the wheat market will still be a weak oscillating pattern in the future.
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