From 2010 to 2023, the number of applicants for the master's examination in China has increased from 1.41 million to 4.74 million, maintaining a high growth rate. However, there has been a sudden decrease in the number of applicants for graduate school in 2024, the first cooling phenomenon since 2015. The decline in the number of applicants indicates that the popularity of postgraduate entrance examinations has decreased, which may be related to a number of factors.
First of all, the fierce competition is an important reason for the decrease in the popularity of postgraduate entrance examinations. Graduate students are facing an increasingly competitive environment. According to the admission score line of most majors released by Gaotu Agency, the admission score line of most majors has generally increased, and the competition for the re-examination is very fierce, which is a huge challenge for the postgraduate students. The number of applicants in provinces such as Shandong and Henan is around 400,000.
Second, the data related to admissions also shows that the number of admissions is growing at a much slower rate than the number of applicants. Between 2016 and 2022, the number of admissions in the national enrollment increased from 58950,000 to 110350,000, an increase of 87 percent, while the number of applicants increased by more than 158 percent. This means that the scale of the application is too large, and many candidates may not be admitted in the end, resulting in sunk costs for candidates who do not go ashore.
Finally, the change in the employment situation is also an important reason for the decrease in the popularity of postgraduate entrance examinations. China's employment situation has undergone some changes in recent years. According to the "2023 Report on the Development Trend of China's Vocational Education Industry", the proportion of research-oriented talents represented by undergraduates and postgraduates far exceeds that of application-oriented talents, and the structure of talent supply and demand is unbalanced. In this case, many candidates choose to re-plan their lives and choose a direction that suits them, rather than blindly applying for graduate school.
The cooling of the postgraduate entrance examination is not a sudden occurrence, in fact, there are some signs. Between 2010 and 2023, the average compound growth rate of the number of applicants for postgraduate entrance examination is 9%. Although the number of applicants for the postgraduate entrance examination in 2023 is the highest in history, the growth rate is only 37%, the lowest in eight years. This shows that the popularity of postgraduate entrance examination is gradually becoming more rational.
In the future, with the changes in the social situation, the number of graduate students is expected to return more rationally. More and more candidates will fully think and plan before choosing to take the postgraduate entrance examination, and weigh the value and significance of the postgraduate examination for themselves. Candidates will pay more attention to their own career planning and employment prospects, and choose a direction that is more suitable for their own development.
At the same time, due to the decrease in the number of applicants for graduate school entrance examinations, the pressure of competition will also be correspondingly reduced. The admission rate is expected to increase, and it may be easier for some candidates to get into their dream university.
In addition, with the country's emphasis and investment in higher education, the employment pressure of college students has eased, and the future employment situation may be more optimistic. This will also affect the decision of some students to go to graduate school, making them more willing to choose direct employment or other paths, rather than improving their employment competitiveness through postgraduate entrance examinations.
In short, the trend of postgraduate entrance examination in the future is expected to be more rational and rational, and candidates will choose postgraduate examination more reasonably, so that the enthusiasm for postgraduate examination will gradually stabilize. At the same time, we should also realize that the postgraduate entrance examination is not the only way out for everyone, and choosing the right development path for you is the most important thing.