The American scheme succeeded?After the Chinese mediation, the Kokang Allied Army divided its troops into multiple routes and conquered the two cities
After China's successful mediation, fierce clashes broke out again in northern Myanmar, and the Burmese army lost two key strongholds, which intensified the civil unrest in Myanmar. This has raised concerns about the harm that the chaos in Myanmar could do to China, and some voices have even pointed to a conspiracy that the United States may be behind it.
According to reports, the "Three Brothers Alliance" ignored the "temporary ceasefire agreement" reached before, continued to launch attacks, and successfully captured the high ground of the Tatmadaw garrison in Namsan Township and the 105-yard border trade zone tactical combat headquarters in Mujie, which was guarded by the Burmese army. This has led to much of northern Burma falling under the control of Allied forces.
The source also revealed that in response to the offensive of the allied forces, the Burmese army even used fighter jets to carry out air strikes, but in the end it was still defeated. In the Battle of Nansan, De'ang's army captured the Nansan Police Station on 11 December, the Shwe Phe Oo Tea Factory on 13 December, and finally fully occupied Nansan on 15 December.
In the Battle of the 105-yard border trade zone of Mujie, the Allied and De'ang armies fought together and launched a general offensive on November 27. Although the Burmese army responded with Su-30 fighter jets, multiple rocket launchers, and anti-drone equipment, the allies eventually fully occupied the area on December 15 due to their superior firepower and strength, capturing large quantities of ammunition and supplies, including two tracked infantry vehicles.
The war is worrying, especially after China has just succeeded in brokering a meeting in Kunming between the Three Brothers Alliance and representatives of the Burmese army, which resulted in a temporary ceasefire. Why did the fighting suddenly escalate?Is China's good offices insufficient, or are the parties to the conflict just responding to China's demands?
Before answering this question, it is necessary to review a series of events. Around October 26, the Chinese side and Min Aung Hlaing** reached a consensus on the construction of a railway connecting Yunnan to Kyaukphyu Port, but then on October 27, the "Three Brothers Alliance" suddenly launched an uprising, resulting in the suspension of Sino-Burmese cooperation. Some analysts believe that the Three Brothers Alliance may have received support from the United States and Europe to undermine China-Myanmar cooperation.
Then, almost simultaneously, as many as 20 civilian and local forces announced a "zero-black" operation, launching attacks on various strongholds of the Burmese army. There is a view that China's "zero-COVID" plan is being used by these armed forces, and the United States and Europe are instigating a war with the United States.
Some netizens raised objections, saying that the siege of Lao Cai, Mujie, and Lashio by the allied forces led to the final handover of 310,000 suspects in wire fraud. While there may be some connection between the two, it is important to note that Myanmar is an independent and sovereign state, and China wants to ensure that Myanmar is formally unified in order to make better use of Myanmar's access to the Indian Ocean.
This complex situation has forced China to mediate between the Allies and Min Aung Hlaing**. However, the power of the Allied forces gradually grew, and the combat effectiveness of the Burmese army was not satisfactory. In just over a month, the Tatmadaw has lost more than 200 strongholds. The situation in Myanmar is complex, and mediation may not be able to resolve the issue.
China may have no choice but to draw red lines, demand that all parties not harm Chinese citizens in Myanmar, safeguard the safety of Chinese property in Myanmar, and push for neutrality. In addition, China needs to prepare for a possible expansion of the Burmese civil war, including in response to the influx of Burmese citizens into China's borders. If the situation in Myanmar gets completely out of control, China may even consider sending peacekeeping troops to Myanmar.
In general, China adheres to the principle of "non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries", but it also needs to be prepared for war. In the end, the Myanmar people should settle the matter on their own, and China will actively promote a peaceful solution, while at the same time guarding against possible war. In this process, the role of Western NGOs and the United States is worth being wary of.