The latest data shows that in November 2023, ChinaSoybeansImportsThe volume reached 7.92 million tons, up 535%, an increase of 78%。And from January to November this yearImportsThe total was 89.63 million tons, an increase of 133%。Such a substantial increase in the domesticSoybeansThe consumer market has had a huge impact. This year, domestic production is already at a high level, andImportsThe volume is still increasing, and the amount of ** has increased significantly, but domestic consumption has not increased significantly, resulting inSoybeansis more difficult.
ImportsSoybeansThe increase is mainly due to:BeansA combination of factors such as a bumper harvest in Brazil and the implementation of a new cropping policy in Brazil. In particular, the increase in the production of Brazilian beans has made Brazil ChinaSoybeansImportsMain**. In addition, the United States recently proposed to suspend exports to ChinaSoybeans, which also makes the country more dependent on BrazilSoybeansImportsImportsThe volume has increased substantially to the domesticSoybeansThe impact cannot be ignored.
From the end of October, the state reserve began to be acquiredSoybeans, although the acquisition of ** is not ideal, but forSoybeansThe market has formed a certain support, avoiding a large **. However, recently, various localities have successively issued announcements that the warehouse capacity will be full, such as the first reserve of the poplar directly under the warehouse, the first reserveDunhuaDirectly under the warehouse, Heilongjiang grain storage Suileng directly under the warehouse, Inner Mongolia Ulanhot Tiexi directly under the warehouse, China grain storage Bei'an directly under the warehouse, etc. While local reserves may continue to be acquired after the end of the state reserve acquisition, it does not mean that all of them are acquiredSoybeanscan be reserved, and once the state reserve stops buying, the market performance may be even worse.
The state treasury has been full and closed in part because it has been affected this yearSoybeansHigh yieldImportsThe increase in volume and other factors lead to insufficient storage capacity. In addition,Soybeans** Long-term weakness, makesFarmersThe sales enthusiasm is not high, and a large number of beans are piled up in the hands of farmers, which in turn leads to the rapid growth of national reserve stocks. The news that the reserve capacity is about to be full has worried the market, and the ** support has weakened.
DomesticSoybeansThe market has encountered two "bad conditions". MassivelyImportsSoybeansThe influx of ** has led to a large increase in the amount of **, while domestic consumer demand has not increased significantly, resulting inSoybeansFacing difficulties. At the same time, the national treasury has been full and closed, which has further weakened the supporting role of the state. In such a situation, we need to seize the opportunity when the national reserve is still buying, and try to reduce protein as much as possibleSoybeans, because once the end of the national reserve is on the market, low proteinSoybeansThere will be greater competitive pressure.
SoybeansThere are two headwinds in the market, the first isImportsSoybeansThe increase in numbers has had an impact on the domestic market. ImportsThe increase in volume is mainly influenced by a number of factors, including:Beansincreased production of Brazilian beans, etc. This makes Brazil ChinaSoybeansImportsThe importance of ** and make it domesticSoybeansThe amount increases, the difficulty increases. Secondly, the state treasury has been full and closed, which has also been further weakenedSoybeans** The role of support. Due to this year domesticSoybeansThe yield is higher, plusImportsThe increase in volume led to an increase in the amount of **, and the market consumer demand did not follow. In this case,SoybeansFacing great difficulties.