Checks and balances.
Daniel Kahneman was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences in 2002 for his outstanding work widely cited in the field of human judgment. Kahneman and his peers divide our decision-making process into two systems: System 1, which has an almost instantaneous impression of people and situations; and System 2, which has the ability to rationally analyze and deal with complexity. These two systems compete with each other and sometimes overlap as a counterbalance to each other.
A tale of two horses.
In ancient Greece, plato likened the human will to a charioteer who steers two horses, one representing our rational or moral impulses and the other representing our irrational passions and desires.
At the end of the 18th century, the Italian criminologist and economist Cesare Beccaria published an article entitled "On Crime and Punishment", which formed the basis of the so-called rational choice theory: people will act in their own best interests. Beccaria advocated the principle of deterrence in dealing with crime. He argues that the punishment should be severe enough to neutralize any benefit of the crime. Beccaria's views laid the foundation for modern economic theory.
In 1890, psychologist William James proposed what is considered the modern origin of the two-process theory, speculating that people make decisions in two ways: associative and true reasoning.
In 1936, Chester Irving Barnard, a pioneer in management theory, argued that mental processes are divided into two categories: logical (conscious thinking) and non-logical (non-reasoning). While these two categories can merge, Barnard argues that scientists rely primarily on logical processes, while business executives rely primarily on non-logical processes when making decisions.
In the 50s of the 20th century, Herbert Simon analyzed the role of intuition in management decision-making in a scientific way. He argues that when it comes to making decisions, people's rationality is limited due to time and knowledge constraints. Therefore, the choice can only be "good enough".
In 1953, a patient (H.;m.He underwent experimental brain surgery to stop his seizures. For the first time, researchers have found that decisions made based on unconscious Xi, or knowledge we don't know we know, may rely on completely different brain pathways that we use to make conscious, rational choices.
At the end of the 60s of the 20th century, in a series of experiments, psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky showed the negative effects of the way humans make decisions, and they found some unconscious and systematic biases that continue to distort human judgment. Kahneman was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences in 2002 for his work. (Tvorsky died in 1996.) ）
In 1979, Kahneman and Tversky introduced prospect theory, which describes how people make choices when faced with risk. Individuals are more inclined to make decisions based on the value of potential losses and gains and how those gains and losses affect their feelings. A more vivid or emotional scenario may have a greater impact than a less emotional but equally likely scenario.
In 1998, psychologist Gary Klein published The Strength of **, which is based on his early work in the mid-80s of the 20th century. This book lays the groundwork for emerging research in the field of naturalistic decision-making. Through studying experienced firefighters, military commanders, and **, Klein argues that intuition isn't necessarily wrong — it's just that it's not accurate enough when based on limited experience. He argues that the decisions made by experts in high-pressure situations and under time pressure are the result of a combination of Systems 1 and 2: they notice patterns, get an intuition, know how to deal with them, and then use System 2 to simulate and evaluate that intuition.
Explore hardcore knowledge
System 1: The long-haired man looks suspicious.
*Doing** — I'd better sell it now!
System 1 usually provides preferences based on patterns that our brains recognize in an unconscious state. This is the cause of unconscious bias that leads to bad judgments, and it is also the insight given by experienced experts in specific situations. Michael Pratt, a professor of organizational change at Boston College, said the system is "often rapid, unconscious, and emotional." ”
Neuroscientists often refer to this knowledge as tacit knowledge. According to Paul Reber, a neuroscientist at Northwestern University, this is due to the connections that form between populations of neurons when two or more stimuli appear together or in quick succession after repeated exposure.
Peculiarity. Fast, automated, relevant.
Advantage. It is faster and can be automated, which makes it useful in high-stress, high-tension situations such as battles or basketball matches. It can be utilized and used through training to speed up reaction times and save mental energy.
Inferior position. For some structured problems, like math-based problems, where there is a correct answer, it is not the best system. Assumptions based on past experience** and may not represent current reality. It is susceptible to unconscious bias.
System 2 that baseball player reminds me of a young d**id ortiz, but the appearance can be misleading.
, I should ignore the impulse of **. That's just fear talking.
These decisions are analytical, deliberate, and "rational." The idea of binary decision-making has been around for a long time. "People think System 1 is bad and System 2 is good," Pratt said. "It's only recently that people have thought about it. ”
Neuroscientists have traditionally referred to the information we use to make these decisions as explicit knowledge. It relies on the brain's traditional memory systems, such as the hippocampus and prefrontal cortex, which are key components of working memory.
The hippocampus can be compared to the archivist of the brain – without it, you are like an amnesiac who is unable to recall memories or store new ones. The prefrontal cortex is the seat of the brain's executive functions. That's where we need to hold the information temporarily when calculating how much to pay a babysitter or what to buy for dinner.
Peculiarity. Slow, controlled, rule-constrained.
Advantage. It lets you think about the consequences of a decision before making one. In addition, it allows complex rules and information to be applied; research-based, analytical thinking; and analytics. It can also shield you from the corrosive effects of fear and emotions.
Inferior position. It's slower and can crash under stress, causing you to "get out of control".