The U.S. reported a 19-percent increase in non-farm payrolls in November90,000 were higher than expected, and the unemployment rate fell back to 37%, but taking into account the October Jolts job vacancies announced this week are 87330,000, the lowest level in nearly two and a half years, and better-than-expected employment in November may be mainly due to the elimination of the impact of the strike in October, and the trend of easing the tight pattern of employment supply and demand remains unchanged. Non-farm payrolls were better than expected, and gold prices** did not change the long-term trend.
In addition, China's foreign exchange reserves continued to increase in November**, with reserves of 71.58 million ounces, an increase of 380,000 ounces from the previous month, and the 13th consecutive month of increased holdings. As the Fed's interest rate hike cycle is nearing the end, the downward pressure on the overseas economy still exists, the central bank's gold purchases continue, and the market risk aversion is high, and the allocation value is still highlighted.
According to CME Fedwatch, on December 9, 2023, the market expected the probability of a rate cut by the Fed in March '24 to 456%, and the Fed is expected to cut rates to 425-450bp (31.) by the end of 20242%）。In terms of employment data, the number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States in November was 1990,000, higher than the previous value of 150,000;The annual rate of hourly earnings was 4%, lower than the previous value of 41%；Unemployment rate 37%, down from the previous value of 39%；The labor force participation rate was 628%, higher than the previous value of 627%。
With the U.S. inflation data and the marginal slowdown in the job market, the market's expectations for the U.S. tightening monetary policy pivot may continue to advance, and it is expected to be **expected**. The U.S. job market remains strong, and the focus will be on the December Fed meeting this week. Riding bulls and bears believes that the medium-term ** is still strong, and transactions on interest rate cuts will frequently drive gold prices upward. The strong gold price continues to drive the release of performance, and the market capitalization-to-output ratio can measure the elasticity of the company's performance, and the gold price has a higher elasticity in the cycle.
U.S. non-farm payrolls rose by 19 percent in November90,000, higher than the expected increase of 180,000 and the previous increase of 150,000;The unemployment rate is 37% and expected 39%, the previous value was 39%。The new non-farm payrolls data exceeded expectations and the unemployment rate was lower than expected to show the resilience of the U.S. labor market, combined with the Fed's previous hawkish speech, the US dollar and U.S. bonds strengthened after the data was released, gold prices were under pressure, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations cooled, and the latest market expectations for the first interest rate cut were postponed from March to May 2024.
The downward pressure on the U.S. economy continues to boost risk aversion, global central banks continue to buy gold, and the Fed has historically cut interest rates every time and the plateau period from the end of the rate hike to the time before the rate cut, the performance is still strong. At the beginning of the week, the intraday high reached a record high and then fell, the US ADP data in the middle of the week did not meet expectations, and the market speculated that the Federal Reserve would no longer raise interest rates in December, and the large fluctuations were mainly caused by the impact of market data.
The trend of de-dollarization and the systematic increase of holdings of reserves by global central banks may become more prominent, and there is great potential for improvement in global reserves. The central bank's systematic increase in reserves is in the ascendant, and the two-wheel drive of consumption + investment demand opens up a new space for real demand. The world is facing growth bottlenecks and needs higher incentives. First, the world's top resource endowment is declining, production costs are rising, and the operating pressure of gold enterprises is rising.
China and India, as the world's leading jewelry consumers, still have some room for growth in the context of economic recovery, and the demand for real goods such as jewelry and gold bars still has some room for growth under the two-wheel drive of investment + consumption. Riding the bull and looking at the bear is firmly optimistic about the major allocation opportunities of the first country, the repair of the three major tables of the domestic listed companies and the improvement of capital expenditure capabilities, as well as the rise of business risks caused by anti-globalization, and the growth and safety revaluation momentum of domestic gold enterprises is strong.