On November 29, former national gambling guru Henry Kissinger passed away at the age of 100. As a politician and diplomat, he once said, "If you control the food, you control everyone." This quote reminds us that food security has always been at the heart of the strategy and that basic self-sufficiency in cereals and absolute food security must be ensured. It is worth noting that the volatility of the wheat market is surprising. Like the headwind** in August, the peak season in November was a surprise. This shows that there is no empirical approach to market movements, and it has become more difficult to judge market changes. According to statistics, flour mill acquisitions were generally 2-3 points higher in November, and with the decline in October, the total is quite staggering. For example, Suiping Wudeli is now ** 15 yuan catty, a total of 7 points in two months;The ** of Jinsha River in Hebei Province is currently 1474 yuan catty, a total of 66 points. The volatility of the market is affected by the fundamentals and mentality of supply and demand, and confidence is more important than **. The market once sharply **, and the acquisition of flour mills fell below one after another. 49, a number of flour mills in Hebei and Shandong even fell to 1Around 47.
The mentality of the business has also deteriorated, and every round of the market is accompanied by a wave of dumping. There is always an illusion in the market that the more grain falls, the more pessimistic it will be about the market outlook. The lack of money-making effect is getting farther and farther away from expectations, which is the main reason for the pessimism of wheat market players about the market outlook. At present, there are at least six months before the full debut of the 2024 new season wheat, and the contradiction between wheat production and demand in the 2023 season due to the bad rain is also clear. With the passage of time, the grain supply in the wheat market continues to be consumed, and the concentration of grain chips in the later period will continue to increase, and wheat is still worth looking forward to. On November 30, wheat ** was still in a wide range **, with an amplitude of 05-1.5 pounds, ** range in 147-1.532 yuan catty, the average price is 1495 yuan catty, 5 catties compared with yesterday, compared with the same period last month**28 cents. A total of 300,000 tons, 0260,000 tons, with a turnover rate of 76%；*A total of 210,000 tons, 040,000 tons, with a turnover rate of 19%. Policy Reserve Wheat Transaction**Reference. To sum up, the volatility of the wheat market is influenced by supply, demand and mentality.
With the passage of time, the grain supply of the wheat market will continue to be consumed, and the concentration of grain chips in the later period will also continue to increase. Despite the pessimism in the market, the outlook for wheat is still worth looking forward to. After all, food security has always been at the top of our strategy. We should be optimistic about the future of the wheat market, while strengthening grain reserves and management to cope with market volatility and emergencies. On November 30, China Grain Reserves Henan Branch held a bidding sales activity, with a total of 13,497 tons of wheat for sale. However, only 4,000 tonnes were successfully sold, with a turnover rate of only 30%. The reserve price was set at 3,100-3,120 yuan, and the actual average transaction price was 3,105 yuan. On this day, two other companies were also selling wheat, but unfortunately all of them were unsold and no buyers were willing to buy them. As can be seen from Figure 1, the purchase of wheat in the main producing areas on November 30 was good, with the purchase of more than 3,000 yuan tons and relatively stable. However, as can be seen from Figure 2, except for the bidding sales of Huaibei Zhenhuai Grain Logistics Co., Ltd., the transactions of the other three companies have not been completed.
Finally, as can be seen from Figure 3, although the turnover rate of ** reserve wheat is low, there is still a portion of wheat that has been successfully sold. The overall wheat marketing market is in a precarious state. Although some transactions were successfully completed, the overall closing rate was still relatively low. This may be due to unstable market demand or buyers taking a wait-and-see attitude. Among them, the bidding sales of Huaibei Zhenhuai Grain Logistics Co., Ltd. were fully sold, indicating that the company has a certain competitiveness in the market. However, none of the sales of other companies have been completed, indicating that there are greater risks and uncertainties in the market. For the future trend of the wheat market, it is necessary to continue to pay attention to market dynamics and policy adjustments to make appropriate adjustments and decisions.
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