On December 11, Tianfeng** released a weekly research report on the real estate industry.
Industry Tracker (2023.)12.02-2023.12.08）
The downward pressure on the first line has increased, and the demand side has shown a passivation response. From the perspective of the Bureau of Statistics, on the new housing side, the sales of new homes in first-tier cities in October were -0 month-on-month3% (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen were -04%/+0.2%/-0.7%/-0.5%), and the average month-on-month increase in second-tier cities was -02%, and the average month-on-month in third-tier cities is -05%。On the second-hand housing side, the sales of second-hand houses in first-tier cities in October were -08% (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen were -1 month-on-month.)1%/-0.8%/-0.8%/-0.5%), and the average month-on-month increase in second-tier cities was -05%, and the average month-on-month increase in third-tier cities was -06%。
Since the second half of the year, the downward pressure on new houses and second-hand houses has intensified significantly, and the month-on-month decline of new houses in 100 cities has expanded for four consecutive months. It is worth noting that since August, the decline in new housing ** in first-tier cities has accelerated, and the first-line in October was -03%, the largest monthly decline since February 2018 and November 2014. The difference is the background of the previous two times, 18 years of "housing not speculation" regulation and control, 14 years of "930" new deal demand easing, are policy adjustment to guide the guidance, and this round of policy easing cycle has lasted for a long time, since September for the first line such as "recognize the house but not the loan" and other policy easing efforts have been larger, the demand side has shown a certain passivation response.
At the current point in time, the possibility of demand-side incremental policies moving forward has increased. In October, 56 cities with new houses in 70 cities were the same, 3 cities were flat, 11 cities had housing prices, and the number of cities with second-hand houses reached 67, with 1 city flat and only 2 cities. The number of new houses and second-hand houses in March and April after the spring has risen rapidly, and the number of second-hand houses in cities is significantly higher than the number of new houses. In this context, Tianfeng ** believes that the restrictive policies under the goal of stabilizing demand have room for further relaxation, such as first-line purchase restrictions, two sets of down payment ratios, second-home loan interest rates, transaction taxes, and ordinary housing identification standards.
The sales level of high-quality real estate companies under low expectations may reflect the support of real demand. From the perspective of real estate enterprises, according to the full-caliber amount and area data of the top 100 sales of CRIC, Tianfeng ** calculates that the average monthly sales price of the top 100 real estate companies in November is +1 year-on-year5%, -9 month-on-month4%；Combined with the monitoring data of the China Index Research Institute, 23 years ago, in November, the total number of new residential buildings in 100 cities was 016%, from September to November, affected by policy adjustments and improvement projects entering the market, new houses showed a slight month-on-month trend.
The above may reflect: 1) November entered the year-end sprint stage, the price reduction behavior of real estate companies increased, and the pressure on new houses in December may be further intensified under the demands of accelerating decentralization, returning funds, and sprinting performance. 2) The impact of the pressure on high-quality real estate enterprises may be relatively limited (for example, the cumulative sales area and average price of China Shipping, China Resources, Yuexiu, etc. have achieved a slight positive growth compared with last year, and continue to recover month-on-month). After the basic completion of the supply-side clearance, the sales level of qualified high-quality real estate enterprises under low expectations reflects the support of real demand to a certain extent.
Focus on short-term rebalancing of supply and demand. On July 24, the Politburo meeting pointed out that the relationship between supply and demand in China's real estate market has undergone major changes. Tianfeng ** believes that under the influence of factors such as population structure and urbanization process, the periodic decline of the demand center, the phased adjustment of housing prices may be unavoidable. However, it should be noted that the downward trend in housing price expectations will not only suppress investment demand, but also inhibit the release of real residential demand, and the supply contraction caused by the over-fall in demand and the large-scale clearing of the supply side may also bring about a short-term supply and demand conversion. 21 22 23m1-10, the area of new construction started was -11% -39% -23% year-on-year, and the current sales performance will continue to shrink in 24 years. Under the guidance of continuous policy easing, there is room for stabilization and marginal improvement on the demand side, and the supply continues to shrink or reshape the relationship between supply and demand. At this stage, some high-quality market entities have strong anti-cyclical attributes, and with their capital advantages, they concentrate on the layout of urban core areas with strong resilience, which are less affected by fluctuations, and there are opportunities for rapid increase in market share in the future to grasp the supply and demand balance window.
In December, the sales of new and second-hand houses fell month-on-month.
The new housing market traded 3.09 million square meters this week, a month-on-month increase of -2525%, down 1380pct；As of December 7, the cumulative inventory of 17 cities was 167.98 million square meters, and the first-, second-, third-line and below de-industrialization accelerated. The second-hand housing market traded 1.75 million square meters this week, a month-on-month increase of +1639%, down 1041pct。From November 27th to December 3rd, the land market traded 53.36 million square meters of floor area this week, a year-on-year increase of -26 in 12 weeks19%；The total turnover was 111.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of -30 in 12 weeks83%；The national average premium rate is 337%, rolling 12-week year-on-year -030pct。
This week's Shenwan real estate index is -370%, an increase of 1 from last week19pct, ranking 28 31 in gains, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 130pct。In terms of H-shares, the Wind Hong Kong Property Index was -3 this week47%, an increase of 2 from last week27pct, the increase ranked 8 11, underperforming the Hang Seng Index by 053pct；The CRIC Leading Index is -807%, an increase of 063pct。
Investment suggestions: Supply-side financing support continues to follow the parallel path of "three arrows", and Tianfeng ** expects that the industry financing situation is expected to be repaired in 24 years. The long-term effect still needs to be observed, but Tianfeng believes that the demand is unstable and the policy does not stop, and is optimistic about the continuous drive of the supply and demand policy to the sector, and pays attention to the poor financing support expectations. 1) Recommend high-quality real estate leaders: China Merchants Shekou, Poly Development, China Overseas Land, and it is recommended to pay attention to Yuexiu Real Estate and China Resources Land; 2) Recommend high-quality property management enterprises: China Merchants Accumulation, Poly Property, it is recommended to pay attention to Wanwuyun and Jinke services; 3) It is recommended to pay attention to the themes of affordable housing and urban village transformation: Greentown Management Holdings, Urban Construction Development, and Chinese Enterprises.
Risk Warning: Industry credit risk spread; Industry sales fell more than expected; The city's policy measures are not as strong as expected.
*: Leju Finance.
Author: Li Li.
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