First, the steel spot and *** summary
On December 7, the domestic steel market was the mainstayThe ex-factory price of Tangshan Qian'anpu billet has been raised by 50 to 3670 yuan including tax。In the morning, the snail opened high, and in the morning, the mainstream of construction steel in major cities in China. In the late afternoon, the snail continued to rise, and the speculative demand improved, but the terminal was still dominated by on-demand procurement, and the performance of rigid demand transactions was average.
On December 7, the main force of the snail strengthened, and the price of 4011 rose by 2At 48%, DIF is moving upwards near DEA, and the RSI three-line indicator is at 61-68, running near the upper Bollinger band.
On December 7, seven steel mills raised the ex-factory price of construction steel by 20-50 yuan.
Second, the variety of steel daily
Rebar:On December 7, the average price of 20mm** seismic rebar in 31 major cities across the country was 4,078 yuan ton, compared with 27 yuan ton on the previous trading day. Mysteel monitors that this week's rebar production increased slightly, total inventories fell slightly, and apparent demand rebounded. In the short term, boosted by raw materials and macro expectations, the market mentality is better, and the spot is stronger. Therefore, it is expected that domestic construction steel will continue to be strong on the 8th.
Hot rolled coil:On December 7, 24 major cities in the country 4The average price of 75mm hot-rolled coil was 4069 yuan ton, compared with 41 yuan ton on the previous trading day. The spot market was generally traded in the morning, and the market continued to weaken in the afternoon. At present, the downstream terminal demand of the market is weak, the first resource acceptance is poor, and the market speculative demand is acceptable. This week, the output of hot coils in steel mills declined, the social inventory decreased, the inventory in the factory declined, the overall inventory performance declined, and most of the best commercial circulating resources were less. The raw material side continues to run strongly, which has a supporting role in the finished product. All in all,It is expected that in the near future, the national hot-rolled coil will run strongly.
Cold rolled coils:On December 7, 24 major cities across the country 1The average price of 0mm cold coil is 4753 yuan ton, which is 15 yuan ton compared with the previous transaction. On the 7th, the black **disk** went up, boosting market confidence to a certain extent, and some businesses in the market ** rose, but due to the weak demand in the off-season, the current downstream still has a low degree of acceptance, so the market transaction performance after the rise is average. According to the feedback of some leading merchants in the Zhejiang market, some mainstream specifications of cold-rolled resources in the current market are still in short supply, and the arrival of new resources is slow. In terms of mentality, the recent market demand has been tepid, and the mentality of merchants is more cautious. Mysteel monitors, this week 26 cities cold-rolled coil social inventory of 110830,000 tons, an increase of 0960,000 tons, with a slight increase in inventories. All in all,It is expected that the national cold-rolled coil will run on the 8th.
Plate:On December 7, the average price of 20mm plain board in 24 major cities across the country was 4,069 yuan ton, 27 yuan ton compared with the previous trading day. On the 7th, the market rose widely, and the transaction improved slightly. From the perspective of the market situation, with the improvement of macro expectations, the disk stopped falling, superimposed strong support of raw materials, and the spot market gradually became colder, and the outdoor start was affected by it, and the demand for steel was weakened, and the speed of destocking gradually slowed downIt is expected that on the 8th, the domestic medium and heavy plate will be mainly adjusted.
3. Raw fuel per day
Iron ore:On December 7, the imported fine powder market in Shandong port rose slightly, accumulating 5-10. **The enthusiasm of the business offer is acceptable, and the shipment is mainly at a reasonable price;Steel mills are cautious in inquiry, mostly wait-and-see attitude, less inquiry, and there is no fine powder transaction today. At present, the mainstream of Canadian fine powder is 1130-1135;The main stream of Aussie is 1145-1150;Chilean fine powder (68%) is mainstream in 1230-1235. (Unit: Yuan wet ton).
Scrap:On December 7, the average price of scrap steel in 45 major markets across the country was 2,528 yuan tonne, an increase of 3 yuan tons from the previous trading day. In the near future, the profits of long-term and short-term steel mills are acceptable, and the production enthusiasm of steel mills still exists, so that there is a certain support for scrap steel. However, it should be noted that the recent arrival of individual steel enterprises is higher than the daily consumption, and there is a maintenance plan, and the demand for scrap steel may decline to a certain extent, and then the support of scrap steel ** has a tendency to weaken. On the whole, the key point of the scrap trend is the demand of steel millsTherefore, it is expected that the scrap steel market will be mainly stable on the 8th.
Coke:On December 7, the coke market was temporarily stable. This week, coke companies launched the third round of price increases, and so far mainstream steel mills have not responded. In terms of raw materials, coking coal continues to rise, and the coal mines in the origin are tense due to production reasons or accidents, coal prices are still prone to rise and fall, the cost pressure of coke enterprises is greater, profits are further squeezed, most coke enterprises are in a state of loss, due to profit problems, coke enterprises maintain a small production limit, the current production enthusiasm of coke enterprises is average, and the coke inventory in the plant remains lowIn the downstream, although the output of molten iron is still at a relatively high level, the demand for coke is good, but the finished steel market as a whole is in the seasonal off-season, the market demand is close to the low point, and the profits of steel mills are not good, the pace of coke procurement is slow, and steel mills are resistant to the third round of coke enterprises, and the coke steel game continuesIt is expected that coke ** will operate steadily in the short term.
Fourth, the steel market
On the supply side:According to Mysteel research, the output of large varieties of steel this week was 908310,000 tons, a decrease of 12 week-on-week630,000 tons. Among them, the output of rebar increased slightly, and the output of wire rod, hot-rolled coil, cold-rolled coil and medium and heavy plate decreased.
Inventory:This week, the total inventory of five major varieties of steel was 1297850,000 tons, a decrease of 11 week-on-week040,000 tons. Among them, the inventory of steel mills is 422810,000 tons, an increase of 1 week-on-week680,000 tons;Social inventory 875040,000 tons, a decrease of 12 week-on-week720,000 tons.
This week, the steel market showed a trend of first declining and then rising. At the beginning of the week, due to the continued weak demand for steel in the off-season, inventory is expected to accumulate. At the same time, Shanxi Luliang Coal Mine has resumed production one after another, and the "double coke" is at a high level. Bearish factors have the upper hand, and manufacturers are mainly reducing prices and shipping. However, due to the fact that the spot price of raw fuels such as coking coal and iron ore is still running at a high level, and the pressure on steel inventories is not large, the market sentiment in the second half of the week is preferred, and the black **stop falling**, driving steel prices**.
Looking forward to the later period, the demand for steel in the off-season will continue to be weak, and steel mills will start winter maintenance one after another, and the supply and demand of the steel market will be weak, continuing to be weakly balanced. At the same time, there are also some positive factors in the steel market, mainly high cost support and strong macro expectations. First of all, the raw fuel is still running at a high level, especially the tight pattern of coking coal, and the high cost has formed a strong support for steel prices. Second, since the beginning of this year, China's economic recovery has shown the characteristics of wave-like development and zigzag progress, the overall economic operation has rebounded and improved, and there is still a lot of room for macroeconomic policies. In the short term, high costs may promote the strong operation of steel prices, but under the pattern of low demand, the space may not be large.