This week's review
**In terms of this, this Friday's large steel varieties **908310,000 tons, down 12 percent week-on-week630,000 tons, a decrease of 12%。This Friday, the output of large steel varieties decreased week-on-week except for threads, and the core driver was that the profits of steel mills have shrunk recently, and orders have also declined, so production enterprises began to reduce production in order to balance production and sales.
In terms of inventory, the total steel inventory on Friday was 1297850,000 tons, down 11040,000 tons, a decrease of 0.8%。This Friday, the large varieties continued to keep going to the warehouse: the factory warehouse continued to increase week-on-week, and the increase mainly came from the contribution of building materials, mainly due to the seasonal impact and the decline in downstream demand for goods;The week-on-week decline in social storage expanded marginally, mainly due to the increase in HRC destocking, and the acceleration of HRC destocking due to the increase in hot coil production and direct supply in some areas.
In terms of consumption, the weekly consumption of large varieties this week was 919350,000 tons, down 03%；Among them, the consumption of building materials decreased by 1 month-on-month1%, plate consumption increased by 02%。This Friday, the apparent consumption of large varieties showed a differentiated situation of building materials falling and increasing plates, reflecting that seasonal factors temporarily have a more obvious impact on building materials consumption.
Next week's outlook
* In terms of the current overall profit of steel mills, especially the profit of electric furnace continues to perform well, so the contribution of the incremental output of building materials in the later period mainly comes from the short-process electric furnace;In terms of plates, due to the continuation of steel mill maintenance, the output of plates may face certain shrinkage pressure in the later period. On the demand side, as the off-season gradually deepens, seasonal factors will continue to put pressure on building materials consumptionThe consumption of plates is less affected by the weather, so consumption can still be maintained in the short term.
At present, the fundamentals are not the core logic that dominates the operation of steel prices, and the raw material side is facing the logic of replenishment in the later stage, and the superimposed market is also waiting for the injection of new macro expectationsTherefore, driven by cost pricing and macro expectations, steel prices may still be strong in the short term.
Fundamental interpretation
According to Mysteel statistics, in terms of threads, production increased slightly this week. Among them, the increase in production in East China is obvious, mainly due to the recovery of profits, the resumption of production of steel mills and the adjustment of varieties, while the production in Southwest China has decreased more, mainly due to the increase in maintenance and shutdown, and the unsaturated production of some blast furnaces. Production in the rest of the region did not fluctuate much.
In terms of reels, production fell this week. In terms of sub-regions, the reduction is mainly concentrated in the northeast region, among which under the influence of weather, Jilin, Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang and other provinces have reduced production by 1-40,000 tons respectively due to steel mill maintenance and unsaturated production. Jiangsu, Sichuan and other provinces** increased by about 420,000 tons.
In terms of hot coil, the output of this week has declined, mainly in East China and Central and South China, due to the maintenance of BG and NG hot rolling lines, and the maintenance of AG blast furnaces, and the overall output has declined. The main increase was in North China, due to the resumption of production of BG last week and the continued increase in production.
According to mysteel statistics, in terms of threads, the factory warehouse continued to increase this week, but the range narrowed. Among them, East China, Southwest China, North China increased significantly, Jiangsu, Shanxi, Yunnan, Sichuan and other provinces accumulated more than 10,000 tons, and the slow decline in demand is still the main reason. In the rest of the region, inventories showed a slight decline.
In terms of wire reels, the warehouse still increased slightly week-on-week this week. In terms of sub-regions, except for Northeast China and Central China, the rest of the regions have different degrees of accumulation, of which Shanxi has the largest increase in inventory, about 10,000 tons.
In terms of hot coils, the warehouse fell slightly this week, and the main decline areas were in East China, due to the reduction of steel mill maintenance inventory and the acceleration of steel mill delivery to the market.
According to mysteel statistics, in terms of building materials, taking rebar as an example, from the perspective of the three major regions, East China and South China have been reduced by 1 week-on-week190,000 tons, 3890,000 tons, while the northern week was 7120,000 tons;From the perspective of the seven regions, except for North China, Northwest China and Northeast China, the rest of the regions are in a state of destocking, of which North China is the most obvious, with a month-on-month increase of 3570,000 tons;Central China is the most obvious, down 2 from the previous month130,000 tons.
In terms of hot coils, from the perspective of the three major regions, East China and South China went down by 1 week-on-week respectively690,000 tons, 8860,000 tons, while the northern week was 0810,000 tons;From the perspective of the seven regions, except for North China and Northwest China, the rest of the regions are in a state of destocking, of which South China is the most obvious, down 70,000 tons from the previous month.
According to Mysteel statistics, the total inventory of large varieties this Friday was 1297850,000 tons, down 11040,000 tons, a decrease of 0.8%。Among them, the inventory of building materials increased by 5 week-on-week430,000 tons, an increase of 09%；Plate inventory fell by 16 week-on-week470,000 tons, a decrease of 24%。The total inventory in the previous period was 1308890,000 tons, down 1 week-on-week090,000 tons, a decrease of 0.1%。Among them, the inventory of building materials increased by 5 week-on-week110,000 tons, an increase of 081%；Plate inventory fell by 6 week-on-week20,000 tons, a decrease of 092%。
[Attachment: Seasonal changes in the weekly consumption of the five major varieties].