According to reports, although the NAND chip has stopped falling and has begun to rise, there is still a certain gap between the current ** and the cost of Samsung, Kioxia, SK hynix, Micron and other **merchants**. NAND related manufacturers said that in order to achieve profitability, the company will continue to increase significantly, and they expect that it will be more than 40% in order to enable large manufacturers to reach the breakeven point. In order to achieve profitability, the future range may reach 50% or even higher, in other words, the NAND industry may again face up to 50% of the "substantial" in the short term
1. The agency estimates that the average sales unit price of all NAND products will increase by 13%.
According to the latest news from TrendForce***, the contract price negotiation direction of NAND Flash has begun to move towards stopping the decline or even increasing the price at the end of the third quarter. This contributed to a 3% sequential increase in NAND Flash shipments in the third quarter, bringing overall consolidated revenue to 92$2.9 billion, an increase of about 29%。Looking forward to the fourth quarter, it is expected that the volume and price of NAND Flash products will rise together, the average sales of the entire product will increase by 13%, and the overall industry revenue will increase by more than 20%.
In the second half of the year, in addition to Mobile DRAM and NAND Flash, which are driven by the traditional peak season, products such as Huawei's Mate60 series are also expected to stimulate other Chinese mobile phone brands to expand their production targets, and demand will increase significantly in the short term, which will drive the fourth quarter contract***
Second, the three major IDM factories have started to reduce production, and domestic manufacturers have ushered in development opportunities
Western Digital has sent out a notice to customers announcing that they will be raising the bar and expects NAND chips to be as high as 55% in the coming quarters. Prior to this, Samsung has increased the **10% to 20% of NAND chips, and plans to increase it by another 20% in early Q24, aiming to turn the market around in the first half of 2024. The fierce trend of NAND is unstoppable, coupled with the recovery of some demand and the beginning of stocking up of clients, the number of products and the double trend of products are expected to gradually appear.
Under the influence of multiple factors such as uncertain market demand, high inventory, and general decline in performance, major integrated circuit manufacturers have taken measures such as reducing production, reducing investment, and slowing down technology upgrades to alleviate the relationship between supply and demand and alleviate the trend. According to TrendForce, all three major IC manufacturers have initiated production cuts, including Samsung, Micron, and Khynix, which generally experienced a decline in production in the second quarter of 2023.
With the withdrawal of some large foreign manufacturers from the niche market, domestic manufacturers will usher in opportunities for development. Manufacturers in Chinese mainland and Taiwan are gradually dominating the niche storage market. In recent years, local manufacturers have continued to increase R&D investment, and their competitiveness has been continuously enhanced.
I screened four leading companies and focused on collecting them!
The first: Yitian shares
Shenzhen Microgroup Semiconductor Technology Co., Ltd. is a subsidiary focusing on the R&D, production and sales of semiconductor micro-assembly equipment.
The second: HC Semitek
HC Semitek Co., Ltd. is a leading LED chip manufacturer focusing on the R&D, production and sales of LED epitaxial wafers and chips.
The third: Goertek shares
We have successfully developed technologies such as machine vision recognition system and flexible robot system platform. As one of the few manufacturers in the VR industry that can provide a full range of solutions, we have a first-mover advantage and are the exclusive ODM** vendor for companies such as Oculus and Sony, participating in the assembly and supply of optical lenses and acoustic components.
Fourth: Liande Equipment
The construction period of this project is 2 years, and the total planned investment is 19,515520,000 yuan. During the construction of the project, the company will build advanced factories and introduce cutting-edge production equipment.
This content only represents personal views, for reference only, not as a recommendation, the market is risky, investment needs to be cautious!##
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