How will the real estate industry go in 2024?Guanloujun briefly looked forward
1.Preventing and mitigating risks remains an important task.
The property market sales in 2023 will be significantly lower than expected, and the small peak of debt repayment in 2024 will come again, and real estate companies, especially private real estate enterprises, may still trigger the risk of debt default and delisting. Therefore, it is necessary to "discover, prevent and deal with the risks of the upstream and downstream industrial chain as soon as possible", and beware of the spread of "triangular debt".
What is worth looking forward to is that with the further implementation of the "three arrows" of credit, bonds and equity, the support of diversified financial instruments has been increased, and the blockage of financing channels in the industry is expected to be effectively dredged. However, the premise is to meet the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises without discrimination, and then reduce the short-term debt repayment pressure of some real estate enterprises.
2.Ensuring the delivery of properties remains the key to restoring market confidence.
At the beginning of August 2023, according to the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, ** has proposed that the overall resumption rate of the "guaranteed delivery of buildings" special loan projects has been close to 100%, with a total of more than 1.65 million housing deliveries, and the housing delivery rate of the first batch of special loan projects has exceeded 60%. In addition, according to the unconfirmed "exclusive" report of the economic ** at the end of November, more than 2.68 million units of 3.5 million units of "guaranteed delivery" projects have been delivered, with a delivery rate of more than 76%. In fact, there are no exact detailed statistics for each region or country at present, but the good news is that data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in the first 11 months of 2023, the area of housing completions was 652.37 million square meters, an increase of 179%, which means that there is still a foundation for the completed house to be delivered.
The progress of the work of ensuring the delivery of buildings is related to people's livelihood and the restoration of market confidence, and it still needs to be continuously and vigorously implemented in 2024. This includes ensuring delivery through agency construction and escrow, rationalizing supervision increments and pre-sale funds, introducing asset management companies to revitalize assets, and carrying out existing house sales.
3.Only by implementing differentiated and precise policies can we stabilize the property market.
The regulation of the property market in 2024 requires more differentiated and refined policies, and continues to optimize the space in reducing the cost of buying a house and the threshold for buying a house.
In 2024, for the improvement demand for rigid demand and replacement, it is necessary to provide convenience from credit, transactions, taxes and other aspects. For the first-tier cities in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen and some strong second-tier cities with a high proportion of stock transactions, it is necessary to focus on activating the activity of second-hand housing transactions and driving the release of new housing consumer demandFor third- and fourth-tier cities, it is necessary to accelerate the recovery of the property market through measures such as housing purchase subsidies, tax incentives, and supporting services.
It is fundamental to accelerate the construction of a new model of real estate development.
Since the 2021 ** Economic Work Conference first mentioned "exploring a new development model (real estate)", the process of building a new real estate development model has gradually become clear.
In 2024, from the industry level, making efforts to build a good house is the starting point of the new model. It is necessary to speed up the establishment of a new mechanism for the linkage of "people, housing, land, and money", improve the basic system of the whole life cycle of housing from development and construction to maintenance and use, accelerate the construction of affordable housing, the construction of public infrastructure for both ordinary and emergency purposes, and the transformation of urban villages, and accelerate the solution of the housing problems of new citizens, young people, and migrant workers. For developers, the core is low debt, stable leverage, and heavy operation, and the business focus shifts from front-end development to back-end operation services, completing the role transformation from developers to operation service providers.
In 2024, the "three major projects" will be the main direction of policy efforts, and stabilizing real estate investment through the "three major projects" will naturally play a positive role in sales recovery and stabilizing expectations.
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