Who is primarily responsible for the predicament facing China's economy?At present, the pressure and predicament facing China's economy is really not small. If you open a report outside the country, you can hardly find any article that is optimistic about China. What Biden claims that China's economy is a time bomb, Wall Street says that China's 40-year economic boom has come to an end, and Singapore's Lianhe Zaobao invented an article called China's economic signals unsettling. From this point of view, the foreign media is very radical. However, there are also people in our domestic economic news every day who say that investment and consumer confidence are still insufficient, and that ** will continue to be issued by the state under the condition of continuous policy favorites** and so on. And the current predicament faced by China's economy, no one dares to say anything about the whole network of finance.
Before talking about China's economy, it is necessary to first understand the composition of China's economy. For a long time before, the three most important aspects of China's economy were foreign trade, investment, and consumption, and these three aspects were called the troika. Before 2008, the global economic order was completely dominated by the Americans, and the United States issued U.S. Treasury bonds to the world, sold bonds and bonds in exchange for U.S. dollars to buy various goods and services from the world, such as clothing, toys, gifts, parts, machinery, and manufacturing outsourcing services such as processing and assembly provided to the United States GDP is growing at a high rate.
After 2008, a key turning point came, the times changed, the financial crisis broke out in the United States, after the outbreak of the crisis, the direct liquidity of the United States dried up, the previous dollar consumption to drive the economy logic was subverted, and the whole world followed the bad luck. At that time, China stood up, provided liquidity to the United States, bought a large amount of US Treasury bonds, and declared that vigorous urbanization was China's second carriage, and investment drove the economy. China's infrastructure construction began to accelerate after the US economic crisis, and the construction of China's high-speed rail network began at that time. On August 1, 2008, the Beijing-Tianjin intercity high-speed railway began to be put into use, China promoted the global economy in this way, and directly announced 4 trillion investment in infrastructure, which allowed the world to slowly get out of the recession caused by the financial crisis in 08, so we also won a title infrastructure madness.
So where does China's investment in infrastructure come from?That is real estate, China sells industrial land at a low price, and uses this money to invest in infrastructure construction, which is what we know as land finance. But this also brings another problem, when all the money is poured into the land finance, housing prices also go up. Ten years later, the leverage ratio of our real estate remains high, and China's economy has officially become an economic framework with real estate and infrastructure as the main body. After choosing the economic model based on infrastructure, the local government wants to sell the land, and the developers have to make money, and the final housing prices are paid by the buyers, even if the income of residents has increased several times over the decades, but it is far from catching up with the speed of debt!
In the final analysis, it is nothing more than the failure of the previous three industrial upgrades. Strictly speaking, we have never given up the goal of industrial upgrading, and have made a lot of achievements in the field of science and technology in recent years, such as high-speed rail, automobiles, machine tools and other high value-added products. If industrial upgrading goes smoothly, the problem of high indebtedness of residents can be easily solved. It's a pity that there is no if, now the United States and its allies are eyeing us and ready to give us a fatal blow at any time, and we are still being suppressed in high-tech fields such as semiconductors, photovoltaics, photoresists, etc.
Moreover, the United States has begun to engage in industrial reshoring again, resulting in a significant reduction in our foreign trade orders, causing a large number of unemployed people, coupled with the malicious interest rate hike of the United States to offset 1,000 self-losses and 800, resulting in a large amount of capital flowing into the United States from all over the world, creating a double kill of the exchange rate of the Chinese currency. Personally, I believe that most of the problems in China's economic development are caused by the Western capitalist countries led by the United States, and they bear the main responsibility, and it is precisely for this reason that we will have to establish good relations with the United States in the near future.