On December 11, the steel spot market was slightly **, and the main varieties of the market were mainly down. Today, there are more than 7.6 billion funds frantically flowing out of commodities, including 121.8 billion.
oneAnalysis of long and short factors
1 From the Politburo meeting, we will see the new trends in China's economic work in 2024
The Politburo meeting held in early December each year sets the tone for economic work in the coming year and is one of the important windows for observing economic policies in the coming year. According to the usual practice, the economic work conference will be convened soon to make arrangements for specific economic work. China is in a critical period of economic recovery and industrial transformation and upgrading, with the introduction of relevant favorable policies and continue to make efforts, China's economy is rebounding, boosting market confidence, and good steel trends.
2 National Bureau of Statistics: CPI fell 0. year-on-year in November5% PPI fell 3% year-on-year
Affected by factors such as the decline in international oil prices and the weak market demand for some industrial products, the PPI in November turned from flat to declining month-on-month, and the year-on-year decline expanded. However, the issuance of trillions of national bonds has boosted downstream steel and cement. Affected by both supply and demand, since December, it has fallen below $80 barrels, and international oil prices may have a more obvious downward impact on domestic PPI in the short term. At present, the recovery of domestic downstream demand has been repeated, the global economic slowdown has led to the weakening of external inflation input, and it will still take some time for PPI to recover.
3 The cold wave continues to affect the rain and snow in many places in China
With the arrival of a new round of cold wave in the country, in the past two days, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Beijing, Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Liaoning and other places have experienced heavy snow, cold wave rain and snow weather outdoor construction progress slowed down, logistics and transportation is not smooth, due to the frequent impact of cold air, or will form a "long-term" adverse impact on steel demand, negative steel trend.
Second, today's steel market**
1.Spot market
Today, the domestic steel market held steady and fell, and the trading volume fell.
2.Workhorse
*Aspect, as of the cut-off**, the main thread closed down 025% to 4025 yuan, the main force of hot coil closed down 046% to 4122 yuan, the main force of iron ore closed down 037% to 9550 yuan, the main force of coking coal closed down 232% to 19560 yuan, the main force of coke closed down 021% to 2667$0.
Steel mills adjust prices
According to incomplete statistics, there are 9 steel mills today to adjust the factory of building materials, of which 4 are raised and 5 are down, with a range of 10-100 yuan tons. The details are as follows:
Up:
1.Kunshan Iron and Steel: thread, wire rod and coil snail ** increased by 30 yuan ton.
2.Fujian Sanbao: thread ** increased by 100 yuan ton;Wire rod and coil snail ** increased by 80 yuan ton.
3.Yukun: threads, coiled snails and wire rods ** increased by 30 yuan tons.
4.Fenggang: thread, coil snail and wire rod** increased by 30 yuan ton.
Downgrade:
5.Yutian Jinzhou: wire rod ** down 20 yuan ton.
6.Tangshan Donghua: wire rod ** down 20 yuan ton.
7.Shiheng Special Steel: thread, wire rod and coil snail ** down 20 yuan tons.
8.Laigang Yongfeng: thread, wire rod and coil snail ** down 30 yuan ton.
9.Zhongyang, Shanxi: wire rod ** down 10 yuan ton.
All adjustments are inclusive of tax.
Three. Raw fuel market
Today's Imported Mine:The market of mainstream varieties of imported iron ore is **small**. The output of hot metal fell slightly, the domestic arrival volume was strong, the speed of port inventory accumulation accelerated, and the fundamentals of iron ore supply and demand weakened. However, the steel mill has entered the replenishment stage before the winter storage, which supports the demand for iron ore, and it is expected that the iron ore will run at a high level tomorrow.
Coke Today:Coke ** maintained stable and strong operation. The third round of coke ** steel mills have not replied for the time being, and the coke steel game has increased. The performance of the coking coal auction market is average, and the increase in some coal prices has narrowed, but most coke companies are still in a state of loss, and coke companies have no obvious willingness to increase production.
Scrap today:Mainstream steel mill scrap procurement** rose and fell, with an upward range of 10-50. The cost performance of scrap steel compared with molten iron continues to be highlighted, coupled with the winter storage of some steel mills, there is a certain demand for scrap steel, or there is a certain support for scrap steel. However, the demand for finished products is poor, the profitability of most steel mills has declined, and it is expected that steel mills will increase their efforts to overhaul and reduce production.
Billet Today:Tangshan Qian'anpu billet resources ex-factory tax reported 3710 yuan tons. The national billet market is mixed, the snail is weak, the downstream finished products are the majority, the overall transaction is average, and the billet is expected to run steadily and weakly tomorrow.
Fourth, Tao Xiaogang's point of view
Last Friday, it was mentioned that it is necessary to beware of the adjustment risk that may be caused by some raw fuels **too fast**, and today's coking coal led the decline in the black series, coupled with the weakening of CPI and PPI data released on Saturday, and the snail and snail ** went green. From the perspective of demand, a new round of cold wave across the country is coming, rain and snow have occurred in many places, and steel demand in the off-season continues to be weak. Due to the frequent impact of cold air in the near future, the next week may adversely affect steel demand. From the point of view, the current round of raw fuel ** rose higher than the finished product, the profitability of steel mills declined, the later steel mill maintenance efforts or will be increased, and the raw fuel ** is also difficult to sustain**. From a macro point of view, Friday's high-level meeting set the tone for the economic work in the coming year, according to the usual practice, the economic work conference will be held soon, the deployment of specific economic work, the follow-up favorable policies are worth looking forward to. On the whole, the policy is still expected, but under the weak pattern of supply and demand, short-term steel prices may be weak. It is expected that steel prices will remain stable tomorrow, with a range of 10-30.
Information references: Xinhua News Agency, National Bureau of Statistics, Xiben Information, Lange Steel Network, My Steel, etc.
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