Is the real estate market turning around? The property market showed signs of bottoming out in November
China's property market in December, from the political and market perspectives, swept away the previous monotony and tedium, and there were some gratifying signs.
On the 15th, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the basic situation of the national property market from January to November 2023. Judging from the monthly trend, the month-on-month decline in the property market narrowed in November, and the unilateral ** of the overall market changed to the bottom. In short, the current property market is about to collapse.
From January to November, the national real estate development investment was 1,044.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 94%。From January to November, the sales area of commercial housing was 100509 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 80%；Commodity sales 10531800 million yuan, down 52%。The year-on-year decline in sales area also fell 0 from the previous month1 percentage point, the year-on-year decline in sales was the same as the previous month.
The most important indicators in the real estate sector: development investment and sales area, commercial housing sales, the cumulative growth curve has changed from a month-by-month decline to a horizontal flattening. This suggests that the market's shorting momentum is waning.
From January to November, the funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 11704400 million yuan, down 134%。Among them, domestic loans were 1,422.7 billion yuan, down by 98%；the utilization of foreign capital was 4.2 billion yuan, down by 351%；self-raised funds decreased by 20.0 billion to RMB3,850.5 billion3%；Deposits and advance receipts decreased by 10.0% to RMB3,958.3 billion9%；Personal Mortgage Loan 1,998200 million yuan, down 81%。For real estate developers, the amount of life-and-death funds** continues to decline, but the decline has improved significantly, and there are obvious signs of bottoming. This suggests that property developers may have gotten through the most difficult of times. With the strong support of financial policies, in the case of developers fighting the first war and sales war, the financial situation of developers at the beginning of next year will be significantly better than this year.
In November, the real estate development prosperity index was 9342, the prosperity is higher than in October. Market confidence is starting to grow.
On the macro side, the national real estate situation in November was better than that in October, and the month-on-month decline slowed down, and signs of bottoming out appeared. The emergence of this situation is inseparable from the strong support from the political circles and the vigorous sale of houses by developers in recent times. As long as this trend continues, especially in the leading cities of the first- and second-tier property market, the trend of market recovery continues, and the national real estate industry may begin to spring at the beginning of next year.
This optimistic judgment is well-founded. Beijing and Shanghai, the last bastion of the regulation of the real estate industry, launched a policy of easing the property market at the same time on the 14th. The panic in the market represents a strong injection of optimism.
On December 14, the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and other five departments jointly issued the Notice on Adjusting and Optimizing the Planning Standards for Urban Ordinary Housing and Individual Housing Loan Policies, optimizing the identification standards for ordinary housing, reducing the minimum down payment ratio of the new policy for personal housing loans, and extending the maximum loan term. A self-regulatory decision to lower the lower limit of interest rate policy. In addition, the minimum access ratio and maximum loan tenure of CPF loans have also been adjusted simultaneously. At the same time, Shanghai also issued a notice to optimize the housing loan policy and adjust the standard of ordinary housing.
New Deal for the Beijing-Shanghai Property Market: In terms of reducing the proportion of entry into the market, the proportion of Beijing and Shanghai is no longer linked to the identification of general housing, and the proportion of the first house in Beijing and Shanghai has been reduced from 35%-40% to 30%, and the proportion of the second house in the market is 50% in the central area and 40% in the periphery. In terms of mortgage interest rate reduction, the interest rate on the first home in Beijing has been reduced from 475% to 42%-4.3%, the interest rate for second homes is increased by 525% to 475%-4.8%；The interest rate for the first home in Shanghai is 455% to 41%, the interest rate for second homes is increased by 525% to 44%-4.5%。In terms of the general relaxation of residential standards, Beijing and Shanghai have raised the floor area limit for suites to less than 144 square meters (initially under 140 square meters), Shanghai has abolished the ** standard, and Beijing has significantly increased the unit price standard for each ring road and removed the total price limit. In terms of extending the term of housing loans, the maximum term of personal housing loans in Beijing has been extended from 25 years to 30 years.
Beijing and Shanghai, in one day, at the same time to launch the property market move, can not be said to be the first side of the unwilling. At the critical moment at the end of the year, the first company that manages the Beijing-Shanghai property market dropped a bombshell, and the intention of escorting the property market is self-evident.
Beijing and Shanghai are the places with the most wealth and money in China, and there is no shortage of demand for homes. Previously, strict regulatory policies in Beijing and Shanghai drove a large number of home buyers out of the market, which was an act of manslaughter. Now, the substantial relaxation of the restrictions on the purchase of ordinary housing and the down payment and interest rate thresholds for housing loans will release a large amount of pent-up demand for housing purchases, which will undoubtedly play a role in the fire of the Beijing-Shanghai property market at the end of the year.
The Beijing-Shanghai property market announced at the same time that night that some real estate projects in the two cities opened a 24-hour sales model, and some customers had a sneak peek at the signing site that night. The positive situation in Beijing and Shanghai has actually played a role in generating demand for housing purchases.
From macro to micro, from the first line to.
Second, third and fourth-tier cities, the current Chinese property market has not lost the threshold of stimulation, November property market trend stabilized sent a clear signal, China's property market may have reached the crossroads of the market transformation for a long time. At the beginning of next year, the property market may usher in a sunny day, and everyone is worried and looking forward to it.