The market is in danger of holding 2924, taking advantage of the trend, and the market will continue

Mondo Finance Updated on 2024-01-30

**Analysis:

The three major A-share indexes collectively closed down today, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell 040% to close at 293080 o'clock;The Shenzhen Component Index fell 113% to close at 927939 o'clock;The GEM index fell 154% to close at 182000 points.

The market turnover was 692.6 billion yuan, and the net inflow of northbound funds today was 272.7 billion yuan.

Technical Analysis:

The news continued to be positive over the weekend, with A50 overnight**06%, the index gapped, opened low in early trading, and fell to 2924 points, stopping its decline near the previous low of 2923 points**, but the market performance was still weak.

The theme ** began to make up for the fall, the weight plate was weak ** and continued to refresh the new low, the daily line ** to the lower band of the boll nearby, the technical side is still in a bearish trend, the refresh of 2923 is a high probability event, after the refresh of the new low the index may usher in a wave **, and now continue to meet the highs.

Tomorrow's key point is 2930, the resistance five-day line is 2950, and the support is 2920

Underlying analysis

SSE 50

The SSE 50 underlying rose slightly by 009%, opening more than 1% lower in early trading approaching 2Near 25, the weak ** after the low opening of the target remained throughout the day after turning red**, the daily line closed the false positive line, the five-day line continued to press down, and the market outlook was still weak.

However, the weight of the theme is expected to stabilize, and the strategy will continue to rise first, and it is not too late to go long after the five-day line recovers.

Key point 2280, support 2277, resistance 23

CSI 300

CSI 300**041%, the CSI 300-day line ** price refreshed low, the weak ** closed the doji after the low opening, the daily five-day line continued to press down, the 21-line unilateral bearish trend, the short-term market is still dominated by the bearish trend, and the strategy continues to meet the highs.

Key point 34. Resistance 3420 support 3380

CSI 500

CSI 500 Target**119%, the theme ** began to make up for the fall, the market outlook funds are expected to gradually return to the weight of the sector, the theme of the 500 and 1000 index after the fall, the weight will gradually stabilize, the market outlook is concerned about whether the theme continues.

Analysis of the underlying option

This week is the week before the exercise and delivery, there are only 9 days left before the exercise and delivery, the loss of time value is accelerating, and the gamma is constantly increasing, the leverage of the option doomsday round is increasing, and it is prudent to participate in the doomsday round game, and prudent investors can consider moving the next month contract.

The underlying contract continued to weaken, with a slight weight**, 50 and 300 contracts were close to selling and buying double killing, 500 and GEM led the decline and put rose, and the subscription collective was cut in half, with large fluctuations, and the volatility continued to maintain a negative correlation with a slight rise, and the strategy continued to be high.

In terms of volatility

In terms of volatility, the underlying volatility continued to maintain a negative correlation, with volatility opening high and opening low in early trading, affected by the provision of time value over the weekend, and the volatility opening nearly 10% higher, followed by a decline in volatility.

As the index opened low and remained throughout the day, panic spread, and volatility rose slightly by 358%, volatility is close to 17, short-term volatility continues to maintain a negative correlation, but there is limited room for continued sharp upswings.

In terms of market statistics

In terms of market statistics, 50,000 contracts were subscribed and 40,000 contracts were added, and the sell-to-purchase ratio was calculated as the total position ratio of 50 and 300, and the ratio of the subscribed position to the put position.

The sell-to-purchase ratio is 054, yesterday's selling ratio was 053, the target opened low and maintained **, the subscribers increased their positions slightly, and at the same time, the put also slightly increased their short positions, resulting in the same sell-to-purchase ratio as the previous day.

Summary

* The index opened low to test the previous low of 2923 points, and the good news did not make the bulls break through the five-day line, and closed at 2930 points on the downward trend, while the lower band of BOLL moved down to 2920 points, and the short-term 2920 will form support, and it is a high probability event to refresh the new low of 2923.

Once it falls below 2920, it will test 2900 points, then the market will panic again, and the volatility will be negatively correlated with the rising waves. After the new low, pay attention to whether there is incremental capital entering the market.

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