Recently, some people have left messages on the Internet asking me what I think of the RMB exchange rate**, as well as its causes and effects. In fact, these problems are based on a wrong premise, that is, the RMB exchange rate is really **. In fact, the RMB exchange rate does not fluctuate, but fluctuates in a large range, and is generally stable. Those say that the RMB exchange rate broke 7, broke 73 of the news is all exaggerated and has no practical significance. As long as we look at the trend chart of the RMB exchange rate in recent years, we can clearly see that the RMB exchange rate has been sideways in a box, and there is no obvious upward and downward trend.
Then, the RMB exchange rate broke 73. What will be the impact?In fact, this question can be asked from another angle, that is, the yuan fell below 6 last year3 What will be the impact. Last year, the renminbi rose to 63. Have you ever made a fortune because of this?Apparently not. Similarly, this year, the exchange rate of the yuan fell to 73. You won't go bankrupt either. The rise and fall of the RMB exchange rate does not have much impact on the lives of ordinary people. Only those who are engaged in foreign exchange trading or cross-border ** will pay more attention to the change in the exchange rate, because it affects their income and costs.
So, why does the RMB exchange rate fluctuate?What causes this?In fact, this is not difficult to understand, as long as we know that the RMB exchange rate is determined by market supply and demand, and market supply and demand are affected by many factors, the most important of which is the interest rate policy of the United States. The interest rate policy of the United States directly affects the value of the US dollar, which in turn affects the exchange rate between the RMB and the US dollar, that is, the RMB exchange rate. If we look back at the interest rate policy of the United States in recent years, we can find that the changes in the RMB exchange rate and the US interest rate are highly positively correlated, that is, the US interest rate rises and the RMB exchange rate fallsInterest rates in the United States have fallen, and the exchange rate of the renminbi has risen. This has little to do with China's interest rate policy, just a natural reaction of the market.
The interest rate policy of the United States is formulated by the Federal Reserve Board of the United States (hereinafter referred to as the Federal Reserve), which is the first bank in the United States, which is responsible for controlling the monetary and credit conditions of the United States to promote economic growth and stability in the United States. The Fed's main tool is to set the federal benchmark rate, which is the rate at which US banks borrow money for short-term purposes. This interest rate will affect other interest rates in the United States, such as deposit interest rates, loan interest rates, bond interest rates, etc., and then affect economic activities such as investment, consumption, savings, and exports in the United States. The Federal Reserve adjusts interest rates based on the state of the U.S. economy to achieve its goal of balancing inflation and growth. Generally, when the U.S. economy is weak and inflation is low, the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates to stimulate economic activity;When the U.S. economy is strong and inflation is high, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to curb overheating.
The interest rate policy of the United States has not only affected the domestic economy of the United States, but also affected the global economy, because the US dollar is the main currency of the international and financial world, and many countries will hold the US dollar as a reserve currency or trading currency. Changes in interest rates in the United States affect the demand for the U.S. dollar, which in turn affects the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar, which is the value of the U.S. dollar relative to other currencies. Changes in the exchange rate of the US dollar will affect the exports, imports, investment, debt and other economic activities of other countries. Therefore, the interest rate policy of the United States has an important impact on the global financial market and the real economy.