Huaan ** shares *** Wan Pengcheng recently conducted research on alcoholic liquor and released a research report "Fei Reform Leads the Growth Direction, Waiting for the Results to Land", this report gives a ** rating to alcoholic liquor, and the current stock price is 6638 yuan.
Drunkard wine (000799).
Main viewpoint: Xiangxi wine soul, rich and natural.
Relying on the six advantageous resources of "the uniqueness of the geographical environment, the uniqueness of the national culture, the originality of the packaging design, the originality of the brewing process, the harmony of the fragrant liquor, and the scarcity of cave resources", the drunkard liquor has cultivated the three major brands of "internal reference", "drunkard" and "Xiangquan". The company's development has gone through several twists and turns, but with the gradual acquisition of COFCO, the company has achieved sustained revenue growth. At the end of 2018, the internal reference liquor sales company was officially established, representing the company to enter a new journey of high-end liquor. In terms of performance, the company achieved revenue of 21 in the first three quarters of 20234.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3854%；The net profit attributable to the parent company was 47.9 billion yuan, down 5075%。
The product area has achieved resource focus, and the cost reform is expected to release dividends.
Focus on the creation of core products and focus on the base market. On the product side, the company has always focused on resources and made strong single products. In terms of internal reference, we will concentrate on Jiachen Edition, adhere to the premise of the supremacy of the price order, and promote the terminal to achieve dynamic sales and repurchase improvement guided by bottle opening, while ensuring that the proportion of internal reference sales always occupies the majorityThe drunkard liquor part will continue to promote the creation of large single products in Hongtan, do a good job in sinking, do a good job in the alliance outside the province, and cooperate with special expenses to cultivate Hongtan into the preferred banquet wine in HunanThe importance of the Xiangquan series has increased, and it is expected to make more important contributions to the scale and dynamic sales in 24 years. In terms of region, it attaches great importance to the local market in Hunan, consolidates the anti-risk ability of the base market by setting up the Hunan business department, and at the same time insists on building sample markets such as Henan, Shandong, and Hebei outside the province, so as to establish a second granary for the market outside the province.
The results of the cost reform are yet to be released, and the bottom of 24 is expected to reverse. Since the fourth quarter of 22, the company has actively promoted the reform of channel expenses, and increased the investment of consumers by reducing channel investment, reducing core store incentives, and reducing channel realizable expenses, and continued to promote the sales model of BC linkage. At present, the company has made substantial progress in actual dynamic sales, bottle scanning, the number of goods channeled, the price order system, and dealer confidence. As a pan-national sub-high-end representative liquor company, the company did have certain fluctuations in performance during the stage of adjustment of business demand, but with the dual promotion of the recovery of the liquor industry and the company's active reform, we look forward to seeing the company achieve a bottom reversal in 2024.
Investment advice: first coverage, give "** rating.
The consolidated estimated revenue for 2023-2025 is: 2.3 billion yuan, the corresponding growth rates were. 9%, net profit attributable to the parent company respectively. 1.1 billion yuan, the corresponding growth rates were. 8%。For the first time, give a "** rating."
Risk Warning. The speed of inventory depletion is not as expected, the process of high-end internal reference is blocked, and the slope of consumption recovery slows down.
*According to the calculation of the research report data released in the past three years, the research team of Huaxin ** Sun Shanshan has conducted in-depth research on the stock, and the average accuracy of the past three years is 7923%, and its ** attributable net profit in 2023 is 59.6 billion, and the **PE converted according to the current price is 3605。
The latest profit** breakdown is as follows:
A total of 26 institutions have rated the stock in the last 90 days, with ** rating 22, overweight rating 3 rating and neutral rating 1The average institutional price target over the last 90 days is 891。
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