ATFX FX Market:Since May 26, 2023, iron ore ** has increased from 6125 yuan ton** to 9795 yuan tons, a cumulative increase of nearly 60%, the bull market characteristics are significant. The factors driving this round of iron ore *** are not clear. Logically speaking, the northern hemisphere enters the winter, the project construction is affected, the demand for steel should be reduced, and the unfavorable demand side should be slightly weaker. At present, iron ore is strong, which may be related to changes in demand and large infrastructure expectations. Australia's economic boom and bust is closely related to the export of ore commodities, and the Australian dollar will benefit from the firmness of iron ore**. Since October 26, AUDUSD has risen by 805%, with a maximum of 0At 6827 points, the Australian dollar showed a strong upward momentum.
ATFX diagram.
From a technical point of view, AUDUSD is in a medium-term bullish trend, and the daily line has closed positive for four consecutive trading days. The short-term** system is still in a bullish alignment. The market price is above the blue regression line, and the last three ** have no signs of resistance, and the downward traction is still insufficient. The indicator KD reads well above the overbought line of 80, but there is no downward crossover, which means that although it will appear, it will have to wait a little longer. The bars of the MACD indicator are above the zero line, the absolute value is medium, and the strength is still high. Taken together, most of the indicators support the conclusion that AUDUSD continues to **.
In addition to iron ore exports, the RBA's monetary policy will also have an impact on the value of the Australian dollar. Since the July interest rate decision, the Reserve Bank of Australia has paused interest rate hikes for four consecutive periods, and the benchmark interest rate has remained at 435% unchanged. Australia's CPI in October was 49%, lower than the previous value of 56%, the lowest level of the year, and the problem of high inflation has eased significantly. However, 4The absolute inflation rate of 9% is still high, and the RBA has a higher probability than the Fed to resume raising interest rates, which continues to boost the Australian dollar. Australia's 10-year government bond yield is in a medium-term downward trend, reaching a year-to-date high of 4 on 30 October945%, the latest value is 4016%, a decrease of about 93 basis points, which means that bond market funds agree with the RBA's judgment that "interest rates may be cut". One-year bond yields 404%, two-year bond yield 375%, the inversion of long-term and short-term yields once again indicates that the RBA's monetary policy is likely to cut interest rates. However, since the RBA's CPI annual rate is higher than that of the US, the Fed may have cut rates several times before the RBA cut rates. AUDUSD is the dominant currency pair. Therefore, after the world enters the wave of interest rate cuts, the dollar index will depreciate even more, and AUDUSD is likely to maintain an upward trend.
ATFX Risk Warning, Disclaimer, Special Statement: The market is risky, and investment should be cautious. The above content is the opinion of the analyst and does not constitute any operational advice. Please do not rely on this report as the sole reference. Analysts' views are subject to change at different times and will be updated without notice.